1/ Covered DPRK issue in and out of govt for 28 years. Few thoughts to offer here as US careens toward cliff on the Korean Peninsula.
2/ sense of crisis mostly self-generated: product of Trump ego and insecurity mated to Kim Jong-un’s rapidly advancing nuke missile program
3) DPRK has had nukes for 11 years, and we have deterred them with both conventional superiority and overwhelming nuclear advantage.
4/ DPRK advancing missile capability has not fundamentally altered the strategic balance. But it is not without consequence. We need a plan.
5/ enhanced DPRK nuke capability strengthens KJU at home and abroad, builds his prestige, & undermines credibility of US alliance w/ROK & JN
6/ left unaddressed, DPRK nukes not only inject greater risk (escalation) into Korean Peninsula, but also embolden KJU to push boundaries.
7/ “solution” to threat is not available, at least for now. Denuclearization is unreachable in one step, and so is peaceful unification.
8/ absent “solution,” we must MANAGE and REDUCE the threat. This we CAN do, working with allies and China. No appeasement. No dropping guard
9/ MANAGING the threat begins with dialogue, proceeds to mutual de-escalation, confidence building, and modest security building measures.
10/ What is NOT helpful is engaging KJU on TERRAIN HE has chosen: threat, bluster, pomposity. Our @POTUS shouldn’t be playing KJU’s game.
11/ rather, goal should be to switch the contest into more favorable terrain - economy, information, culture, politics, sport, development.
12/ US and allies have OVERWHELMING superiority in soft power and smart power. We hold hard power advantage too, but KJU has one trump card.
13/ KJU can inflict terrible losses - millions, if nukes - and WILL do so rather than let us militarily defeat or politically absorb DPRK
14/ entire GDP of DPRK onmy about $40-50B USD - one good day gain or loss on US stock market. This doesn’t help US. It helps KJU. Anyone...
15/ ...who thinks KJU will kow tow to Orange Emperor because of our sanctions must realize that DPRK could inflict many times the $ damage
16/ ...on us than we have inflicted on him, even w/out starting war. Want our stock bubble to burst? Watch impact atmospheric H-bomb test!
17/ We shouldn’t be afraid of KJU, but neither should we back him into corner with no escape route. That is how we got Pearl Harbor.
18/ Trump deadly wrong when he tweets diplomacy can’t work w/DPRK. It is ONLY thing that can work - and it should be backed by mil pressure.
19/ Trump’s disdain for diplomacy is function of his ego’s need for glory and instant gratification. His mentality could launch WWIII.
20/ Trump is delusional about missile defense capabilities — even most optimistic assessments more guarded than Trump’s. He finds war doable
21/ someone must disabuse trump of at least that one fantasy. Sure, we have Military options on Peninsula, BUT NO GOOD ONES! I’ve gamed it.
22/ By contrast, we have MANY diplomatic options, including MANY GOOD ONES. None will “solve” the problem. Tough shit for us. Reality sucks!
23/ But is EVER there was a situation where pursuing the perfect was the enemy of the good, it is on the Peninsula, confronting KJU w/nukes.
24/ War is sure to be Catastophic. Fortunately, is is neither necessary nor inevitable. KJU doesn’t SEEK it. He knows he would lose in end.
25/ We should not seek it either! Trump’s current posture risks careening off that cliff. We need a better roadmap, and maybe a new driver.
26/ don’t take my word for it. Listen to @SecDef19. Lots of wisdom in that very large IQ brain! He’s been at the precipice. End.
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