Thread by @SethAbramson

As I've been noting over the past 2 weeks, AG Jeff Sessions is looking like a *primary* target in the Mueller probe. cnn.com/2017/11/02/pol…

2/ It's pretty simple, from a criminal investigator's standpoint: Sessions' NatSec shop *ran* the sanctions policy-for-Russian aid plot.

3/ Many of the members of the NatSec team (e.g., Phares) may have had no idea what was going on. Others, like Sessions, ran the whole game.

4/ Sessions' multiple televised perjuries—and ongoing obstruction—is no accident. They're the desperate acts of a man in a tightening noose.

5/ In August, Sessions permitted The Daily Caller, a leading conservative publication, to falsely report he "shut down" George Papadopoulos.

6/ In fact he did the opposite: he used Papadopoulos' intel/connections to initiate a months-long sanctions policy negotiation with Kislyak.

7/ They met April 27, 2016—Sessions lied about it. And at the RNC—Sessions lied about it. Then September 8, 2016—and Sessions lied about it.

8/ We know the topic was *dropping sanctions on Russia* at these meetings. And we know during *all of them* Sessions knew Russia had emails.

9/ There's no conspiracy THEORY here; I'm simply pointing out what any criminal investigator or attorney would say about conspiracy CHARGES.

10/ The man *most* likely to be able to testify against Sessions is Sam Clovis. Who just spoke to the grand jury and ended his nom for USDA.

11/ You'll always have journos with no legal background who see in these facts a "conspiracy theory"—but this is Criminal Investigation 101.

12/ (For those just joining the feed, I'm a trained criminal investigator and represented 2,000+ defendants as a criminal defense attorney.)

13/ Sessions and Trump aided/abetted federal felonies—Computer Crimes—by promising payment to a party they knew was committing those crimes.

14/ That payment came in the unspeakably vast financial windfall a *unilateral* dropping of sanctions—what Trump promised Putin—would bring.

15/ That Trump came into office on January 20, 2017 with a secret plan to unilaterally drop sanctions is publicly—and widely—reported fact.

16/ Sessions was *the* Trump aide responsible for coordinating and negotiating Russia policy; he knew exactly what Trump's policy/plan was.

17/ And we now know Papadopoulos was kept on staff *at least through the inauguration* to let Trump's campaign *maintain* his Kremlin ties.

18/ As Steele's largely verified dossier tells us, the Trump-Kremlin sanctions negotiations also involved the question of Russian oil sales.

19/ Papadopoulos: energy "expert." Page: energy "expert." Burt: a key Russia pipeline advocate. Three men *all over* Trump's NatSec policy.

19/ And all this sounds like "conspiracy" until you *accept* that Donald Trump has been a two-bit street-level hustler his whole adult life.

20/ A sloppily conspiratorial scheme to get elected is *exactly* the level of ideation, capacity and inclination Trump has shown since 1975.

21/ So if you're expecting a Trump-led criminal conspiracy to be *even as ham-fisted* as Iran-Contra or "Iraqi WMDs," you don't know Trump.

22/ These aren't sophisticated actors, from an investigative standpoint—they acted like minor hoodlums and it'll be that easy to catch them.

23/ The delay in doing so is Comey's firing; political sensitivites; a gun-shy media; GOP obstruction; and under-resourcing all the probes.

24/ But anyone who thinks the Adult Supervision in this ragtag-hoodlum three-ring circus—Mueller—isn't up to the task doesn't know Mueller.

25/ So far this is unfolding exactly as you'd expect it to given (a) the exigencies of having a criminal POTUS and (b) a by-the-book lawman.

PS/ In calling Sessions a "primary" target, I mean don't expect Mueller to flip him unless he thinks the headwinds on Trump are too strong.

PS2/ Same with Kushner. The key targets look to be Trump, Sessions, Kushner, Flynn. You flip 1-2 only if pro-Trump headwinds are too strong.

PS3/ Sessions *didn't* shut down Papadopoulos in *fact*—whether or not he pretended to do so at the TIHDC (and that remains *very* unclear).

PS4/ The same Daily Caller piece that says Sessions said "not going there" at the TIHDC includes *numerous* lies about that NatSec meeting.

PS5/ For instance, it says Sessions told Papadopoulos *never to raise the issue again*—it's now clear Sessions *never* said that to the kid.

PS6/ Here's how law enforcement looks at it: if you're Sessions, you don't commit multiple perjuries unless the truth brings MORE liability.

PS7/ So Mueller likes Sessions for something *bigger* than perjury—which would have to be a crime with treasonous/espionage-like dimensions.

PS8/ I *don't* think we're looking at Treason/Espionage—the *statutes*—but Conspiracy to Commit Computer Crimes and election law violations.

PS9/ Trump, Sessions, Flynn, Manafort, Kushner, & Jr. conspired to get in-kind donations/stolen property from the Russians—& lied about it.

PS10/ They did it all while they knew or should've known Russia was committing crimes—and took actions (GOP platform) to further the scheme.