@SethAbramson's Threads
1566 added
Thanks to @ChrisCuomo for this.
Honestly I like both these brothers—and liked their dad, too. He came to Harvard Law to give a speech to the 1Ls and it was a big day for me, as I'd admired his oratory/values for years. I'm glad Gov. (Andrew) Cuomo has his eye firmly on the ball.
Honestly I like both these brothers—and liked their dad, too. He came to Harvard Law to give a speech to the 1Ls and it was a big day for me, as I'd admired his oratory/values for years. I'm glad Gov. (Andrew) Cuomo has his eye firmly on the ball.
1/ This interview puts me in mind of something else. In 2016, I supported Sanders in the primary and endorsed Clinton in an article I published the day she spoke at the DNC. In that article I wrote about how it took me some time to "get" what her candidacy meant to so many.
2/ I'd wanted to vote for a woman for president in '16, but was so aligned with Sanders in some personal as well as political-vision ways I preferred him and was so focused on that that it took until the DNC for me to see things I should've understood earlier about Clinton's run.
MEDIA: You must clarify that while NYC is forecasting a peak in NEW DAILY CASES IN NEW YORK CITY in 2 weeks, the peak in terms of TOTAL NEW DAILY CASES IN AMERICA isn't projected to be April 12, as NYC is just the "canary in the coal mine" for major outbreaks in 25+ other cities.
PS/ If we were under a NATIONWIDE STAY-AT-HOME ORDER, that'd be different—states would be on a similar transmission schedule and the country would peak together. But that is not what's happening, and even places under stay-at-home orders are seeing insufficient social distancing.
PS2/ It's about to be April, and many cities are *just now* seeing a sudden, startling rise in cases (Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, DC, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Miami, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and others). April 12 is *not* a *national* peak.
(UPDATE) The @Worldometers coronavirus data for the US yesterday was wrong. Apparently nearly all the data from New York was missing. It looks to be wonky again today. Hopefully this'll get fixed ASAP. Until then, the messy, confusing, non-user-friendly JHU interface can be used.
(DATA) Here's a comparison of the @Worldometers and Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data from yesterday with respect to daily U.S. coronavirus deaths: 
(NOTE) I know many use the JHU interface, but there's simply no comparison between the usability of @Worldometers and JHU—not only does the former capture more cases, it's 100% easier to navigate. JHU is a mess by comparison. So here's hoping Worldometers gets back on track ASAP.
The right insists on analogizing the US to South Korea—a smaller nation that's done far more tests/capita and contact tracing—as they love quoting its Case Fatality Rate (CFR) despite wrongly lumping active cases into it. Even if you do, it's risen from 1.24% to 1.64% in 2 weeks.
1/ I mention this because some wonder at the disparity between the numbers we're seeing now and what Dr. Fauci is discussing—100,000+ deaths. There are several explanations. Fauci presuming hospitals get overwhelmed is one, but less commonly said is that Trump has lied about CFR.
2/ Even if you *falsely* add active cases to the denominator in determining CFR—which you must never do, as it (preposterously) presumes all active patients will recover—the fact remains that nations and the world are seeing CFR *rise* as more cases close and more tests are done.
I have no idea what just happened but I'm pretty sure that the president just spread a massive conspiracy theory that New York City hospitals are selling their medical masks on the black market while telling the country they need them to save lives
Holy fecking shirt, he's crazy
Holy fecking shirt, he's crazy
Trump has now just accused New York of "hoarding" ventilators—referring to the storage of ventilators that'll be needed in the next 21 days—in a continuation of what's clearly an assault on the NY-NJ-CT area to punish it for not quickly agreeing to his illegal federal quarantine
Trump is now expressing his amazement that the coronavirus is in 150 countries, saying that some people didn't even know there were 150 countries...
...which is fascinating, because there are 192 countries and the coronavirus is presently in all 192 of them
...which is fascinating, because there are 192 countries and the coronavirus is presently in all 192 of them
INTERESTING.
"When the [Trump-Biden] matchup included Biden's potential VP, only Sen. Warren tipped the Democratic ticket to majority support at 52%, compared to the Trump ticket at 42%. Harris or Klobuchar both push the Biden ticket to 50%, while Trump's ticket stays at 42%."
"When the [Trump-Biden] matchup included Biden's potential VP, only Sen. Warren tipped the Democratic ticket to majority support at 52%, compared to the Trump ticket at 42%. Harris or Klobuchar both push the Biden ticket to 50%, while Trump's ticket stays at 42%."
PS/ The FNC poll found a whopping *11%* undecided/planning to vote third-party in a prospective Trump-Biden matchup, which suggests some Sanders voters lukewarm—at best—to Biden. Biden-Warren may be the hottest-polling ticket now because it would bring some of those voters home.
PS2/ That said, Harris would *also* be a strong VP pick. The only pick that would be *disastrous*—another tin-ear Tim Kaine-like "safe" pick betraying a horrid misunderstanding of *everything* about politics in this century—would be Klobuchar, who should stay in the U.S. Senate.
That time Trump subtweeted me but was too much of a coward to say my name because the readership for PROOF OF CONSPIRACY would quintuple and I can promise you if there's one thing he doesn't want folks reading it's a book with thousands of major-media sources detailing his crimes
TWEET1/ I've actually been posting viral tweets arguing that media must stop covering Trump's press conferences for a while now. More than one tweet, though none framed with the supposed direct quote Trump used above. The far right has been irate about it.
TWEET2/ Between these two tweets (the one I just posted and this one) the call to end major-media coverage of Trump's press conferences—because they spread disinformation and endanger people, not because they're popular—has received around 60,000 retweets.
Trump has politicized federal aid to sick and dying Americans.
It's that simple.
And it's impeachable conduct. It's a violation of his Oath of Office and the closest you can get to bribery without putting it down on paper.
Decisions in a national emergency must be data-driven.
It's that simple.
And it's impeachable conduct. It's a violation of his Oath of Office and the closest you can get to bribery without putting it down on paper.
Decisions in a national emergency must be data-driven.
PS/ If you were in charge of federal response to a national crisis killing hundreds of Americans daily and you found that Massachusetts—third hardest-hit—was getting 1/6th of its needs and Florida (tenth hardest-hit) was getting 300% of an initial request, you'd be firing people.
PS2/ But Trump lives in Florida, runs businesses in Florida, receives lots of campaign money with the aid of Florida's Republican governor, is connected to Florida's Republican governor in the case that got him impeached—through Parnas and Fruman—and needs Florida for reelection.
Trump implies NYC and New Jersey are the primary areas to focus on. They're key "hot" zones, but we now see outbreaks in rural areas and growing crises in these cities:
🔹Atlanta
🔹Boston
🔹Chicago
🔹Dallas
🔹Detroit
🔹Los Angeles
🔹Miami
🔹Milwaukee
🔹New Orleans
🔹Philadelphia
🔹Atlanta
🔹Boston
🔹Chicago
🔹Dallas
🔹Detroit
🔹Los Angeles
🔹Miami
🔹Milwaukee
🔹New Orleans
🔹Philadelphia
MORE/ Additional key cities in the coming (or already-here) "second wave" of major coronavirus crises, according to Yahoo! Finance and Axios:
🔹D.C.
🔹Denver
🔹Houston
🔹Indianapolis
🔹San Francisco
🔹St. Louis
And of course I missed a city in the first list, above:
🔹Seattle
🔹D.C.
🔹Denver
🔹Houston
🔹Indianapolis
🔹San Francisco
🔹St. Louis
And of course I missed a city in the first list, above:
🔹Seattle
SUMMARY/ The full list of big cities facing 1st/2nd-wave coronavirus crises includes:
🔹Atlanta
🔹Boston
🔹Chicago
🔹Dallas
🔹DC
🔹Denver
🔹Detroit
🔹Houston
🔹Indianapolis
🔹Los Angeles
🔹Miami
🔹Milwaukee
🔹New Orleans
🔹NYC
🔹Philadelphia
🔹San Francisco
🔹Seattle
🔹St. Louis
🔹Atlanta
🔹Boston
🔹Chicago
🔹Dallas
🔹DC
🔹Denver
🔹Detroit
🔹Houston
🔹Indianapolis
🔹Los Angeles
🔹Miami
🔹Milwaukee
🔹New Orleans
🔹NYC
🔹Philadelphia
🔹San Francisco
🔹Seattle
🔹St. Louis
Yesterday I was cleaning and was about to put a copy of PROOF OF COLLUSION (2018) back on a shelf when I decided to open to a random page and it turned out to be about Giuliani secretly acting as Trump's agent in October 2016 to get *made-up dirt* on HRC
Sound familiar, Ukraine?
Sound familiar, Ukraine?
PS/ My point is that we keep forgetting that Trump is just doing the same corrupt things over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and ov
PS2/ He apparently has not had a new idea about how to be corrupt since 1978 is what I mean
BREAKING NEWS: Trump Apparently Uses Twitter to Give First Notice to 3 U.S. States That He May Blockade Them Somehow; New York Governor Says He Doesn't Know What "Enforceable Quarantine" Would Mean; Rep. Amash Questions Under What Legal Authority This Could Ever Occur in the U.S.
SOURCE1/
SOURCE2/
BREAKING: Trump Says That Due to the Democratic Governors of Washington (3,369 Coronavirus Cases) and Michigan (3,657 Cases)—the Latter of Whom He Calls "the Woman in Michigan"—Not Being "Appreciative" Enough of Him, He Has Told the Coronavirus Task Force Head "Not to Call Them"
PS/ I know we don't get shocked about anything anymore, but there are over 250 US dead in Washington and Michigan—a number that's rapidly climbing—and here's the President of the United States openly saying he wants to shut down communications with them because they insulted him.
PS2/ Washington and Michigan are two of the *five biggest coronavirus hotspots* in the US—see chart below, from Worldometers—and Trump is *admitting* that the federal response is *dependent in part* on how much "appreciation" the governor of a state shows to him. READ THAT TWICE.
This is the moment @NYGovCuomo became—according to betting markets—the second-place candidate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, with a 7% chance of becoming the nominee, per the most recent data. These 25 minutes of today's coronavirus briefing.
CUOMO: "This is a different beast that we're dealing with. This is an invisible beast. It is an insidious beast. This is not going to be a short deployment...this is going to be weeks and weeks and weeks. This is going to be a long day. And it's going to be a hard day... {cont.}
CUOMO (2): "...and it's going to be a ugly day. And it's going to be a sad day. This is a rescue mission that you're on. The mission is to save lives...and as hard as we work, we're not going to be able to save everyone. And what's even more cruel is that this enemy...
When daily deaths in Italy went down from 700+ to 600+ over a 24-hour period, Deborah Birx immediately told America there were signs Italy's outbreak was "declining." Now that deaths in Italy are 900+ daily, will she recant, or does she just give us rosy lies daily like her boss?
At the federal level we're being fed rosy *bullshit* daily, and I'm sick of it. If being an expert who stands beside Trump daily also means peddling the lies, omissions, misdirections, historical revisions, and blame-games he does, *get off the stage* and start telling the truth.
Tonight America will break the *100,000 infection mark*, and people are going to start getting really, *really* pissed about the grandstanding, self-aggrandizing, politicking *circus* we see from Trump and his crew daily. It's time for real experts to excise themselves from that.
(HARD FACT) The number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. so far today—13,735—is more than *192 nations* have *ever* had. SOURCE: Worldometers.
PS/ That "192" only includes nations that have had coronavirus cases.
CHART/ Here's the Worldometers chart bearing this horrifying statistic out. Compare America's "New Cases" entry for today to the "Total Cases" entries (this snapshot is ranked, by country, by most total cases worldwide to least). 198 countries in total have had coronavirus cases.
BREAKING NEWS: State of New Hampshire Now Under Emergency Stay-at-Home Order Through May 4, Suggesting It Will Not Be Part of Any Dangerous "Easter Reopening" Being Plotted By Trump and Unnamed Business Leaders
SOURCE/ wmur.com/article/live-a…
CLARIFICATION/ Sununu's executive order for NH was *issued* "now," but it takes full effect 11:59PM EST tomorrow. All New Hampshire beaches will be closed beginning at that point. The border with Massachusetts remains open, as Sununu says he lacks the legal authority to close it.
(THREAD) This is #FakeNews intended to understate the lethality of coronavirus and force an end to social distancing. It will get people killed.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is deaths divided by closed cases (active cases may still result in death).
The US CFR is 1080/ 2943—or 37%.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is deaths divided by closed cases (active cases may still result in death).
The US CFR is 1080/ 2943—or 37%.
1/ If a man with *no morals* wanted to outrageously understate the CFR for coronavirus, what he'd do is divide deaths by *all* US coronavirus cases—thus fraudulently assuming *every active case* will result in full recovery.
Calculated that way, the US CFR is 1080/75066—or 1.44%
Calculated that way, the US CFR is 1080/75066—or 1.44%
2/ If a man with *few morals* wanted to wildly understate the CFR for coronavirus, what he'd do is look at research suggesting 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic, *then* assume all *estimated* cases will result in full recovery.
The US CFR would then be 1080/150132—0.72%.
The US CFR would then be 1080/150132—0.72%.
(THREAD) Trump's Fox News town hall today was wall-to-wall lies—*information warfare* waged against America, even as America is the epicenter of the worst global public health crisis in over a century. I break down some of the most vile lies in this thread. I hope you'll RETWEET.
1/ Fox News asks Trump when he knew he had to "move" on coronavirus. Trump says that he first heard about what was happening in China in the *media*—not via any of the means the *most powerful man in the world* has at his disposal to hear about *major national security threats*.
2/ In fact China informed the World Health Organization about coronavirus in *2019*. DHHS and the NSA knew by January 3 at the *latest*. DHHS briefed Trump by January 18 at the *latest*. It's likely that Trump was first told in late December—over a month before he *did* anything.
(THREAD) As Trump threatens to roll back "social distancing" measures at the height of the worst global public health crisis in a century—with America at its epicenter—his lies about coronavirus are coming fast and furious. In this thread I address a few. I hope you will RETWEET.
1/ No one in the world—including medical experts—knows what the mortality rate (or CFR, "case fatality rate") for coronavirus is now or will be by the end of the pandemic. Anyone telling you they *know* what we're looking at here in terms of the lethality of coronavirus is lying.
2/ Trump and his team are cherry-picking the rosiest scenarios for their political rhetoric, telling us the CFR for coronavirus will be between .5%—5 times worse than the seasonal flu—and 1.5% (15 times worse). So many things are wrong with that, it's hard to know where to start.
Candidly, I'll be angry about how the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries played out for the rest of my life. It's disgraceful that at a time of crisis—and both primaries were conducted amidst the crisis of Trump being a player in US public discourse—things played out as they did.
PS/ I'm not referring here to the primaries' results; Clinton was highly qualified and ready to lead, and Biden is highly qualified and a good man. But as a lawyer, I'm process-oriented—and the primary processes in '16/'20, at media and campaign and DNC levels, were preposterous.
PS2/ Lest anyone be confused, I was Sanders primary and Clinton general in 2016, and Warren primary and Biden general in 2020. Anyone who read my post and assumed I supported Sanders in 2020 was...well, I don't know what. I've been very clear that I was and am a Warren supporter.
Nah I just know when to scrape the gum off my shoe
He's a Mud Golem summoned via 31 eldritch cantrips known only to the residents of a single Russian shtetl in 1921
He's 89 cats shoved into a Kentucky Wildcats jersey who tweet using a pulley system while high on catnip
All day today people wondered why I was so worked up about disproving—with tons of data—Trump's false claim that the case fatality rate for coronavirus will end up well under 1%. I said that his misinformation is dangerous. And now someone has tragically died from it. I feel ill.
Some data I didn't discuss earlier: in the largest data-set yet, China, the closed-case CFR is 4.29%. Even if—as some say—50% of cases are asymptomatic and don't end up in the pool, the CFR would still be 2.15%. We don't have enough data yet, no—but have no reason to trust Trump.
Worth remembering, too—and oddly, Trump is keen on reminding us of this, albeit for different reasons—there are so many seasonal flu deaths, with few tested post-mortem, that we're almost certainly counting some coronavirus deaths as seasonal flu deaths. That'll remain an issue.
MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: As Predicted, Trump's Publicly Disseminated Misinformation on Chloroquine Has Killed Someone; Media Outlets Must Now Stop Broadcasting Trump's Coronavirus Updates—Or More People May Die
Please RETWEET this. It's long past time media did the right thing here.
Please RETWEET this. It's long past time media did the right thing here.
The video could kill someone—but here are Trump's FALSE WORDS: "A drug called chloroquine—and some people would add to it, hydroxychloroquine—so chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine...it's been around for a long time, so if things don't go as planned it's not going to kill anybody."
VIDEO ADDRESS/ I won't post the video because it's dangerous—but for those who want to hear the full context of Trump's FALSE WORDS for themselves, it's here: https://www[.]youtube[.]com/watch?v=u9NbaXHdfGc (brackets added deliberately to ensure this isn't a "live" YouTube link).
The case fatality rate in South Korea is 1.24%—with the best testing regime in the world—so I don't know why Dr. Birx is talking about a 0.7% and dropping case fatality rate in South Korea
Right now the world's best-case scenario is a 1.24% case fatality rate with insane testing
Right now the world's best-case scenario is a 1.24% case fatality rate with insane testing
PS/ If half of America gets coronavirus—a low estimate—and we miraculously are lucky enough to get a 1.24% case fatality rate despite not testing like South Korea or social distancing like South Korea or having medical supplies like South Korea over *2 million Americans* will die
PS2/ South Korea (per Worldometers) having 64 new daily cases and 7 new daily deaths explains how and why South Korea's case fatality rate (CFR) is *rising* every day, and is now *well* above the 0.7% number Birx is quoting that appears to come from weeks and weeks ago
