Thread by @Beetcoin

1/ #Bitcoin Stages -

Price momentum can always be divided into 4 stages -@markminervini

-S1 accumulation range (no media/max opportunity)
-S2 directionnal trend (<<-- THIS IS WHERE YOU SHOULD TRADE)
-S3 huge volatility (media are nuts/min opportunity)
-S4 final mark down/crash

2/ I told you to look into this article, that was the key for a great trade to do:

- Leave S2 behind
- Act during S3 that's going nowhere (22nd dec -40% day was the clue for S3)
- So you had plenty of time to avoid S4 by beeing invested in it.

3/ #Bitcoin is the key leader and barometer of $CRYPTO sector. Hate it or not. This is just rationnal and reality. As long it's not trending up (S2), $CRYPTO will mostly not trending up.

Your goal is to survive/make minimum mistakes not beeing right every move so avoid S1/S3/S4

4/ #Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2013 - 2015

5/ #Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018 (in the making)

-You'll make 90% of your profits & best trades during S2
-Spend less time during S1/S3/S4, be liquid
-S1/S3/S4 lead to small mistakes that grow and become FATAL
-Trade less so you'll be more profitable
-Survive to experience hundred's S2 in your career

8/ can you spot S3/S4 on gold $XAUUSD ?

9/ these are obviously general guidelines, but it's primordial to do this work to know where you are on the map, what you are trading, what's the plan & how to behave accordingly.

Insight biais is easy (draw the chart after) but at least for now we're almost sure it's not S2.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: March Update

Still in S4 on going or new S1. No surprise.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: March Update

Linear scale for the omfg wow-effect.

10/ Can you spot the stages on DOGEBTC? highlight S1 (2)

11/ Can you spot S4 and S1 on $URA(nium) ?🤔

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: April Update

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: May Update

still in S1/S4
RSI 55+ key level (3 Days)

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: June Update

still in S1/S4
RSI 53+ key level (3 Days)

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: July Update

Bounced again on the $6k low, still in S1/S4.

A bullish #Chuvashov's fork is in the making. Downtred slowed down, can reverse now. But need few steps to turn very bullish. It can also be clogged in a S1 range for a while.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: August Update

Failed to break over the bullish #Chuvashov's fork (green lines).

Remains clogged, still in S1/S4.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: September Update. More of the same:

Failed to break (again) over the bullish #Chuvashov's fork (green lines).

Remains clogged, still in S1/S4.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: October Update.

Spent previous month in a very low volatilty narrow range. Might expect a strong move out from there with key levels just over and below. Thrilling!

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: November Update.

Not very different from October regime:
- Things get ever more squeezed.
- RSI is completly amorphous

Patience is key, use this time to improve your clear-sightedness and simplify things.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages update: expected move occured and has choosen downside.

This thread 👆 telling you $crypto is not bullish long term since feb 2018 (read: no S2) 🤓

Good guy, No noise 🧐🤫

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2018: December Update

During the whole year the latter stage was marked as "S1?" or "S4?"

Turns out we were still def. in S4 and you've been notified (see prior tweet -40% since then)

I repeat, the main teaching of this is that we weren't in S2

12/ Because nobody can explain the market if they don't ever had skin in the game (mindblowing: they wouldn't be economist or have any honorific mention if it was the case ;-))

Trader & technicians, do/did, cut the TV, read, connect to them.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2019: February, straight to a 2 months update

During this period, we bounced on support once & failed under resistance twice (arrows). Trading slow in between, consolidating for the the move

For any trend change: need RSI to coil up 1st (yellow)

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2019: April update

Price marked a consolidation under resistance w/ multiple rejections.

For the 1st time since the crash, we witness a bullish breakout... and RSI went exactly in the spot, coiling up.

We are now closer from S1 or S2 than S4.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2019: May update

We expected the end of weaknesses and... it did not disappoint.

The strength pops us out with a bullish breakout of key RSI level over >55 last seen in 2015 (pink arrows).

Q. now is: how & where this (S1) S2 will first mature?

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) stages 2015 - 2019: June update

We had a first break between 8.5k-7.5k, but it has no chill when it's a bull market.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: July update

Price flashed up to ~$14K, but now below a significant barrier around ~12K support of last S3.

RSI & Price look still under bull control. But things can consolidate for few weeks/months below this resistance. Still in S2.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: August update

in the midst of a temporary consolidation, quite random chop in it.

Patience...

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: September update

Still in the consolidation chopping traders left & right (you've been warned!).

The RSI now looks exhausted. I won't be surprise if it dips from there.

Question: will it be a fake move down (quick recover) or worse?

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: September important update:

Didn't take long, it dipped few hours after.

In a near future this is not S2 anymore. It's better to trade S2 assets.

Question remains: will it be a fake move down (quick recover) or worse? Price action needed.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: October update:

Price dip is now showing some signs of maturation. Still too soon to predict next move direction.

We're sitting in opposing bullish medium & long term vs bearish short term.

Saw many people capitulating & low activity.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2019: November update:

The month has been wild! We're almost at the same level than the last update but with 2 new things to look for:

- The upside (+40% in 24H) has been stopped under S3 short term. Weakness.

- We made a new low. S2 seems far.

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2020: February update.

Market is always tricky when things become obvious it seldom becomes easy money.

In Dec/Jan, we made a lower rectangle consolidation and didn't went lower. We broke upward continuing a slashed S2.

Now @ Pivot level. HH?

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2020: March update

And so it didn't: Pivot level pointed last tweet hasn't been crossed. No Higher High (HH) + Virus.

Drop's been so huge, I can't imagine a long consolidation (at least) from here

Feel bad for the "ultimate hedge" sellers (lol)

#Bitcoin ($CRYPTO) Stages 2015 - 2020: March update (2/2)

Looking at the RSI, we missed the opp. this february to pile another green box.

I think we're due for a new cycle below 55 (dashed line) = nothing to see until we go over. Bad news, can be LONG! (1y+)

Would you survive?

13/ On the left: a conceptual representation of stages in Weinstein's (1988) book.

On the right: a today technological stock

#stages

14/ On the left: a conceptual representation of stages in Weinstein's book (1988).

On the right: one of the most sophisticated cryptocurrency (in DeFi).

So what's most important ? Guessing *Value* of things or How *Price* behave ?