1/ Below is my perception/(limited) understanding of Peter Thiel's worldview:

People don’t understand how important economic growth is.

It’s the only thing sustaining the planet. Without it, we go into malthusian war.
2/ The main way our society works is through innovation. No innovation, no growth.

Govt works sitting at table, everyone compromises, more for you, you, and you etc— This only works when the pie is growing.

No economic growth —> gridlock, zero sum game, loser for every winner
3/ Since 1970s, rate of economic growth has declined.

From 1932 to 1972 avg income in US went up 350%.

1972 to 2012: It’s gone up by 22%.
4/ Too much globalization (horizontal progress) e.g. Take one type writer copy it all over the world.

Not enough technology (vertical progress, 0—>1) e.g. Turn typewriter into a word processor.
5/ We haven’t had *enough* technological progress.

Computer revolution has been significant, but not enough to make a dent in California, let alone the global economy.
6/ People are making money betting against progress.

(e.g. Buffet’s single best investment is in railroad industry — which s a bet that 21st century will look more like 19th century than the 20th century (back to rail, coal — clean tech is gonna fail).
7/ Decline has not only been felt economically, it’s been felt culturally. We’ve lowered our expectations in many different ways. For example:

Energy: Nixon’s 1974 call for full energy independence by 1980 has given way to Obama’s 2011 call for one-third oil independence by 2020
8/ Health: Nixon declared the War on Cancer in 1970 and said that we would defeat cancer in 1976 by the bicentennial.

Today we couldn’t declare war on Alzheimers, even though 1/3 of 85 y/o suffer from it.
9/ Infrastructure: The Golden Gate Bridge was built in three-and-a-half years in the 1930s. It’s taken seven years to build an access road that costs more than the original bridge in real dollars.
10/ We’ve absorbed it in our perceptions of ourselves too.

We used to call it first world and third world.

Now we call it developed and developing — the implication behind developed being that there is no more growth to go.
11/ Different reasons for slow down:

Libertarian answer — regulated too much… cost too much to invent new things.. Regulatory problem

Liberal answer — invest in education and training scientists and engineers

Conservative answer — military arms race that drove innovation
12/ Conclusion:

“We’ve spent 40 years wandering in the desert, and we think that it’s an enchanted forest. If we’re to find a way out of this desert and into the future, the first step is to see that we’ve been in a desert.”

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More from @eriktorenberg

Dec 31, 2021
Here are the most interesting books and articles that changed my mind in 2021:
Lyn Alden presents the case for inflation, drawing partially from Ray Dalio’s "Big Debt Crisis"

Whenever sovereign debt to GDP has reached over 130%, 51 out of 52 times that debt was not paid back in real terms, meaning there was inflation.

lynalden.com
Scott Sumner believes that recent inflation is transitory (COVID supply shock) & inflation won't exceed 3% in 2020s

He believes Fed can stabilize inflation (2% last 40 yrs) & GDP/debt concerns are different this time b/c interest rates are naturally low

amazon.com/Money-Illusion…
Read 17 tweets
Nov 14, 2021
How do we get all the ambitious college grads going into consulting/wall street to go into tech instead?

It's perplexing they don't, given tech is often more creative, impactful, & it competes financially.

What should an initiative aiming to re-route all that talent look like?
What should On Deck build/launch in this space?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21, 2021
Sharing some big news today:

- We’ve launched a $100M community-backed accelerator to fund people as early as pre-company

- We provide $25K advances for people to quit their job and explore whether they want to start a company

- Now Co-CEO at On Deck

ODX is built off the learnings from Village Global (where I remain a GP)'s accelerator, which is now partnering with On Deck to build ODX

ODX is the culmination of the goal we’ve all been focused for the last 5 years: Helping founders get off the ground.
Some think there are too many founders, too much capital. We disagree

More founders is how we get better & cheaper education, healthcare, among other needs

There’s no natural limit on the amount of successful startups, which is why we want more founders
Read 6 tweets
May 21, 2021
Twitter is a social network where people often post when they're angry, snarky, curious, or self-promoting, among other triggers

Imagine a social network where people listened to music that made them feel relaxed or connected—and that was somehow native to the posting experience
or other iterations of social networks that would bring about better versions of ourselves by altering the environment or incentives
Yes also think campfires, listening sessions, late night philosophical conversations (clubhouse gets at some of this, but there could be text version too)

Read 4 tweets
Apr 7, 2021
Some of the big challenges in higher ed👇

- Price is too high & rising
- Too much student debt
- Too many students dropping out
- Too many students underemployed
- Credential inflation
- Misaligned incentives on multiple levels
- Oligopolistic market dynamics prevent competition
TOO EXPENSIVE:

- Education costs have increased by 300% since 1980.

- Gov't spends 3% of GDP ($600B) subsidizing higher education.

- Incentives are misaligned such that the more gov't dispenses subsidies, the more expensive college gets.
TOO MUCH DEBT:

College debt is now ~$1.7 trillion (was $300B in 2000). Avg student is $40K in debt

Debt is now non-dischargeable in bankruptcy. If you don’t pay off loans by 65, gov't garners social security

Excessive debt leads ppl to delay having families and buying a house
Read 21 tweets
Feb 28, 2021
Hiring a Head of Special Projects to work w/ me at @beondeck

You’ll incubate:

- @Cosign
- “People Hunt” for ppl looking to do their next thing
- Wiki for start up-ideas & decks
- @beondeckdaily 2.0

and other ideas we conceive

Submit your plans for these to erik@beondeck.com
Read 7 tweets

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