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Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
@lucasguttenberg
Jun 29, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Euro Summit concludes with rather thin statement, basically kicking the can down the road to Dec and the important questions down to ministers. The spirit of #Meseberg has survived damaged – coming months will show by how much.

Five takeaways:
consilium.europa.eu/media/35999/29…
(1) First things first, the summit did not deliver. Macron wanted the budget and did not get it. Merkel (and Regling) wanted a stronger ESM and did not really get it. Very unclear what the rest wanted, but given usual commitments to strengthening EMU, they did not get that either
(2) The Franco-German position clearly did not muster enough support this time around. This can be due to timing or method, due to substance (to be seen how cohesive the 12 are) or due to differences in ownership for the position. We don't know yet.
(3) But we will find out soon: After 2 years where #euco conclusions only referred to banking union, EMU at large is back on the table. Perimeter in the Centeno letter referenced in the conclusion is pretty vast (includes euro area budget, ESM reform, even debt restructuring).
(4) First thing to watch now: Will #Meseberg remain the fil rouge for the Eurogroup agenda? And will France and Germany stay on the same page? Fact that Eurogroup is in charge (i.e. @BrunoLeMaire and @OlafScholz) would rather hint at that, but not clear at all.
(5) Second thing: Heads have kicked the agenda back to the Eurogroup without any real guidance. This means Eurogroup needs to tackle political questions itself now - not normally its strong suit. Means huge challenge for Centeno to steer the process, last EG outcome not promising

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More from @lucasguttenberg

Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Nov 6
FAZ reports that the federal president is consulting with the chancellor and the leader of the opposition on next steps if the coalition collapses.

Good moment to run you through the main options and steps that would follow if indeed it's over:
There are essentially two ways this could end. Lindner could just pull the plug. FDP ministers would resign from their posts. Or Scholz runs out of patience and asks the federal president to remove Lindner (and presumably also the other FDP ministers).
The government would have no majority in parliament anymore. But in Germany, you cannot force a chancellor or a government out of office by simple no-confidence vote. The Bundestag would need to elect another chancellor to do that. And there is no majority in sight for anyone.
Read 11 tweets
Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Sep 9
Draghi hat seinen Bericht zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Europas vorgelegt - und natürlich konzentriert sich die Diskussion in 🇩🇪 sofort auf die Frage neue EU-Schulden ja/nein/vielleicht.

Warum das ein Fehler und dieser Bericht eine große Chance auch aus Berliner Perspektive ist:
Image
Image
Der Bericht ist zunächst eine ziemlich schonungslose Standortbestimmung der europäischen Wirtschaft im globalen Vergleich. Und Draghi sagt: Es sieht nicht gut aus. Als zentrale Gründe macht er fehlende Produktivität und mangelnde Innovation aus.
Außerdem nennt er die Herausforderungen durch Fachkräftemangel, hohe Energiepreise und notwendige Dekarbonisierung. Und eben die globale, teilweise unfaire, Konkurrenz. Klingt alles bekannt aus der deutschen Debatte? Eben.
Read 15 tweets
Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Sep 9
The Draghi report has just dropped - and it is surprisingly good and low-bullshit.
My initial takeaways: Image
Such reports tend to be boring to read: Because the authors are mincing their words, because of too many cooks in the kitchen, because the "outside expert" is not really allowed to say what they want or do not know what they want to say.
The Letta report suffered from several of these ailments. The Draghi report suffers from none thereof. The man obviously knows what he wants to say and doesn't mince his words. The report is refreshingly low-bullshit, puts fingers in obvious wounds and largely avoids euphemisms.
Read 14 tweets
Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Nov 24, 2021
The 🚦 agreement is actually pretty good news for a number of Eurozone files, including the fiscal rules and EDIS.

Here are the main bits:
1/ Most importantly, the text says that the fiscal rules can be "developed further" to reach three goals: Secure growth, safeguard debt sustainability and foster green investment. They should also become "simpler and more transparent, also to strengthen implementation".
2/ This is pretty big. No red lines here, but an open and constructive opening position for negotiations that can very well include a change to the rules themselves. It will be now up to the Commission and other member states to take up the offer that is in that text.
Read 9 tweets
Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Sep 13, 2021
Das @_FriedrichMerz-Interview im @handelsblatt ist beeindruckendes Anschauungsmaterial, wie sich ein Teil der Konservativen im europapolitischen Wald verirrt hat und jetzt nicht mehr herausfindet.

Warum das ein Problem ist:
1/ Es geht mit dem klassischen Motiv los, dass man höllisch aufpassen muss, den faulen Südeuropäern (hier stv 🇮🇹🇪🇸) nicht ihr Hallodritum zu finanzieren. Dass gerade diese Länder die ambitioniertesten Pläne zur Verwendung der EU-Gelder vorgelegt haben, bleibt natürlich unerwähnt.
2/ Es geht dann weiter zu den Schuldenregeln. Hier räumt auch Merz ein, dass die Einhaltung für viele Länder schwierig wird. Und dann wird es spannend: Er drückt sich extrem wortreich um eine Antwort herum, ob man die Regeln denn nun wirklich so einhalten sollte.
Read 13 tweets
Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Sep 6, 2021
Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni announces in @SZ that the Commission will only present its proposal for fiscal rules reform once there is a consensus among eurozone countries. Here's why this is a wise approach and why we are still far away from that point:
sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
1/ A weird feeling has grown in recent months that an expenditure rule is the way to go to reform the SGP and that what we basically need now is a Commission proposal that the technocrats then can tweak so that everyone is happy. Everyone is now waiting for that proposal.
2/ In my view, this feeling is a trap and the Commission is now trying to avoid falling into this trap by basically asking member states to come to a consensus what they want before puttting out a proposal.
Read 14 tweets

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