Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #euco

Most recents (24)

On #EUCO, after 6 years in Brussels I have learned one thing: in @EU_Commission speak to "mobilise" or "trigger" €XXXbn investment means that a tiny bit of EU money (wherever it comes from) will be used as a guarantee for the EIB to be able to "crowd-in private investment". 1/n
It can be called JunckerPlan…, GreenDeal…, InvestEU or whatever. I have always been quite skeptic about effect in normal times, but I'm pretty sure it won't work in the midst of a recession or in the early phase of a recovery 2/n
There won't be enough demand for loans/projects coming from the private sector present at the EIB to ensure a strong recovery. Given the depth of the recession we will need fiscal policy (ie spending) to boost directly aggregate demand in the early phase of recovery. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
EU leaders finishing 1st round of #euco interventions (they've been told to send an SMS if they want to speak again). So far:
- 🇫🇷🇮🇹🇬🇷🇪🇸 🇵🇹want grants from recovery fund ~€1-1.5tn
- Frugals, led by 🇸🇪: no grants and no trillion camp
- 🇩🇪 avoided g-word but wants "huge" effort
- 🇩🇪 Merkel said grants not in categoru is something she can agree, but still called for "huge" effort
🇮🇹🇮🇹Conte told #euco that commission should aim to get recovery fund up and running so it can issue grants as soon as the second part of this year. Called the situation a "political emergency"
Read 11 tweets
How can we build a better #PostCoronial world?
In our new #longread piece for @openDemocracy, @NC_Renic & I offer a vision from Germany.…
Here’s a taste of what we propose (thread):
@IFSHHamburg #UnCancellingtheFuture #HamburgSessions
The #COVID19 crisis will be politically exploited, whether we like it or not - so let's make it for the better. We can’t cede this historic moment to authoritarian powers, reactionary ideas or conservative timidity and we can’t return to our flawed ‘business as usual’.
The scale of the response to COVID-19 highlights the degree to which radical change is possible. Germany and Europe should seize this chance to advance a bold vision for a better future. A more progressive, sustainable and just Post-Coronial world would have four key features:
Read 23 tweets
In my latest blog for @Bruegel_org, I argue why we need EU debt to insure against the pandemic. I show that EU debt will always be an (indirect) liability to national budgets. Spending control is the central element for success. Thread…
EU debt as insurance against catastrophic shocks is in Germany's and everybody's interest as it increases the stability of monetary union and helps avoid fragmentation of single market.
Directly or indirectly, EU debt requires tax revenues. Since the tax base does not change by adding EU level, ultimately it is a cost to national budgets (I explain this in some detail in post).
Read 8 tweets
The #Eurogroup has actually decided on something. And we should take a second to cherish that moment. In sum: We get an ESM credit line nobody needs; an EU loans scheme with no real strings attached; and an opening for burden sharing.
1/ First on the ESM: There will be a credit line to cover "direct and indirect" healthcare costs. That is obviously a joke as in the grand scheme of things, health care costs won't matter much. This will never be used. But now the ESM is symbolically part of the solution.
2/ There will be an EU program to give cheap loans to member states without conditionality called SURE. What matters: EU will be allowed to borrow in the markets and hand the funds to member states. This is an important political step that seemed totally out of reach 4 weeks ago.
Read 7 tweets
Presidential election in the midst of the #covid19 pandemic? Yes - says the Polish government. 30 million of Poles are supposed to vote on 10 May. After Hungary the next ‘coronavirus autocracy’ is underway THREAD/
1/ According to the Prime Minister Morawiecki the peak of infection is expected in May-June. People’s lives will be in danger: the election will create millions of points of contacts between them
2/ On 6 April the Parliament changed the electoral law – the entire election will be conducted by postal voting. Still, postmen will have to deliver and collect the ballots; the votes need be counted. Health risk will remain massive
Read 11 tweets
Ok, let me start here a small thread on yesterday's failed #EUCO. Let me do this with my Spanish half of the mind (the view from the South) and my Swiss half (which is sometimes even more brutal than the German and the Dutch perspectives, thats why Switzerland is not in the EU).
First of all, we have entered this new Covid-19 crisis with many open wounds from the previous 2010-2012 debt crisis. The biggest asset among partners is trust. And trust was eroded than and has not been recovered since. So this is not the best context to collaborate.
Lets start with the Spanish perspective. The situation is dire, this crisis will be harder than anything we've seen. We are in a state of emergency, people are locked-down in their homes and hundreds are dying every day. We have a joint enemy Covid-19 and we must fight together
Read 18 tweets
Last night's #EUCO revealed that a pandemic will not be enough to overcome the traditional rifts, divisions and constraints of the eurozone
Italian PM Conte told other EU leaders “don’t bother” with traditional bailouts or ESM credit lines that come attached with austerity conditions and loss of sovereignty as in the last eurozone debt crisis
That's significant. After over five hours of acrimony, EU leaders gave up and have asked eurozone finance ministers to come up with a plan over the next 10 days. It is not clear what
Read 13 tweets
Yesterday’s lacklustre Eurogroup passed the buck to the heads of government. The European Council tomorrow must shoulder its constitutional responsibility to secure the cohesion of the EU as a whole, and in particular take decisive action to consolidate the euro. 1/
Dealing with the pandemic will exacerbate the structural imbalance between richer and poorer states. The EU has for years evaded the issuance of a mutualised safe asset in the form of eurobonds. The eurozone survives courtesy of @ecb but still without a common fiscal policy. 2/
The #coronavirus crisis is time to rectify this flaw in economic and monetary union. The plague risks the lives of all EU citizens equally, and the social and economic impact will be much worse than the asymmetric shock of the financial crash in 2008. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Meanwhile, as the #LockdownBelgium is announced, the results of the videoconference #EUCO are also being announced.

The EU has agreed to block entry to non-EU citizens for 30 days. British, Swiss, Norwegian and Icelandic citizens are excluded from the restriction.
The UK is refusing to participate in the restriction measure.

For this reason, Ireland also cannot participate, because it must preserve its common travel area with the UK on the island of Ireland.

But all other EU countries will institute the restriction.
There will be exceptions.

-Diplomats and people transporting goods will be exempt.
-Immediate family members of EU citizens will be exempt.
-People with permanent residency in an EU country will be exempt.
Read 6 tweets
THREAD: the fight after the next will be trying to keep politicians sane, assuming they will see reason between now and that point in the future. #GreenNewDeal #ESG #italy #COVID19 (1/10)
What you see above is the environmental effect of bringing my poor country's productive private economy, slowly moving forward on all four since 2008, to a screeching halt. It is also the avowed objective of #EUCO before this balloon went up.(2/10)
Now admittedly this was a bit sudden: a decade of future economic repression in ten days doesn't happen often. But do not expect the effects in terms of dislocation to be much milder or different. Politicians blush when you ask for cost benefit analysis. @CarloStagnaro (3/10)
Read 11 tweets
Really no need for self-congratulations, this European Council teleconference was incredibly disappointing for the following reasons (thread): @MatinaStevis @quatremer @jdomerchet @MESandbu @adam_tooze
The conclusions fail to agree on a common EU line on testing, quarantine, containment and social distancing leaving Italy alone to take the boldest measures when they should be undertaken across the EU…
In line with the Health Ministers meeting on March 6th, HoSG also failed to lift exports bans on medical supplies (mask, respiratory aid kits) displaying no sign of solidarity and resource pooling whatsoever
Read 8 tweets
At 17.00, #EUCO meets via videoconference to discuss the #COVID19 response. When it comes to economic policy, expect some form of statement in very general terms that there should be a common effort.

But what are really the options for a 🇪🇺 response?

1/ In short: Beyond the @ecb's action (monetary policy and some supervisory action), the best we can hope for is a coordinated-but-national fiscal response. This would mirror the Dec 2008 #EUCO (see below) which agreed a 1.5% stimulus where 1.2% had to come from national budgets.
2/ In the last 12 years, we did not build any meaningful vehicle for fiscal stimulus at the 🇪🇺 level. We can do some tweaks like increase EIB capital or lower EU budget co-financing rates, but that is pretty much it. Again, this is like 2008/09, see 👇…
Read 10 tweets
When comparing positions of #EP / Commission & Croatian non-paper on #CoFoE one can identify a number of open questions & points of contention. Here thread with a non-exhaustive list of 14 main issues/questions that still need to be addressed/settled:
(1) How exactly to involve citizens in #CoFoE? Citizens' Agoras, Citizens' Dialogues, Citizens' Assemblies?; (2) How binding are results of citizens involvement for deliberations in Conference Plenary? (3) How to (actively) involve/include citizens in (final) plenary meetings?
(4) Are there basic common rules for citizens deliberations at national level? And is there a mechanism to monitor & improve national debates/deliberations? (5) How to foster national debates & how to structurally link them to transnational debates in #CoFoE?
Read 8 tweets
Angela Merkel is giving a #EUCO press conference. Congratulates ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ on “dramatic” victory and says future negotiation will be “difficult” but Germany wants “excellent” partnership with U.K.
@BorisJohnson Asked about FTA, the German chancellor doesn't want to dwell on difficulties, but sketches out key areas - fish, security, the question of extension or not in June.

She adds: "We have to act quickly and in a precise manner" /2
Asked about UK as a "competitor" Mrs Merkel strikes an icier note on the question of the UK and post-#Brexit competitive deregulation:

"Great Britain will have to carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of leaving.” /3
Read 4 tweets
[Thread] ⏱️ Aujourd'hui, les Chefs d'Etats reprennent les négociations sur un objectif de neutralité en gaz à effet de serre pour 2050 en l'Europe #EUCO

En juin, la Pologne🇵🇱, Tchèquie🇨🇿 et Hongrie🇭🇺 s'étaient opposées au deal.

👇Suite (et fin?) de l'affaire
2. Depuis, le Parlement européen a déclaré l'urgence climatique et appelle l'Europe à réduire ses émissions de -55 % d'ici 2030 🚨

La neutralité 2050, c'est bien, mais quand c'est suivi d'actions de court-terme c'est mieux👍

9 Etats soutiennent: 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇪🇸🇱🇻🇱🇺🇳🇱🇵🇹🇫🇷🇫🇮
3. La nouvelle Présidente de la Commission @vonderleyen soutient cet objectif, mais LA priorité est l'objectif de neutralité climatique pour 2050.

Comment y parvenir ? Les autres pays du monde, dont la Chine 🇨🇳, attendent que l'🇪🇺 montre la voie #COP25
Read 13 tweets
Here’s a thing. #EUCO’s decision tomorrow about the #Brexit #extension will perforce be very political (and therefore controversial). First, an extension will be granted until 30 November for the sole purpose of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. 1/
.@BorisJohnson will have to commit formally to using his best endeavours to achieve ratification. If however the WAB is still not ratified by 30 November a further extension will be made until 31 January for the sole purpose of holding a general election. 2/
Again, the PM will have formally to commit to securing an election. If there is still no ratification by 31 January, and if the new government has not revoked Article 50, the EU Treaties will simply cease to apply to the UK at midnight on 31 January. END/
Read 4 tweets
Right. So #Brexit extension update...the clue is here, I think - in @BorisJohnson reply to Ken Clarke, which as I observed in PMQs suggested that Johnson is not pushing an 'alternative date' at the EU /1 thread
@BorisJohnson Now, he might be pushing a short extension date in private, but that seems unlikely because a) his position vis a vis want no extension and risk of leak from EU side and b) dubious legality of doing that given Benn Act /2
@BorisJohnson So Johnson is saying "it's in hands of EU"

And EU is saying "we want to hear from Mr Johnson what he wants".

Mmm...that sounds like a kind of stalemate. /3
Read 10 tweets
No extension decision tonight 
This evening's Coreper is "information point" or state of play pooling views in all 27 capitals
On Friday if there is a consensus decision will be by written procedure for Benn act Jan 31 2020 - or a shorter extension, perhaps a month until Nov 30
EU wants to hear what Johnson wants, many see Benn act date as most neutral but could be a shorter one
If there is no unanimous agreement for written procedure by Fri then #EUCO next Monday, 28 October
Clarification: the decision to seek written procedure or to go for a summit is up to Tusk. His call on Fri - not Coreper
Read 3 tweets
European ambassadors meet tonight for discussion on Tusk’s recommendations - what Johnson has told him will be critical
It’s fair to say he’s jumped the gun, forced the issue, chances for disagreement have risen and thus another #EUCO
So written procedure is still the plan but odds are shortening on a summit
So we might well not get sign off today - French expected to moan but not (YET) to drag everyone to Brussels. Macron's Jupiterian is just rumour
Read 8 tweets
So how did @BorisJohnson pull off the 'pivot' to his revised Northern Ireland-only 'frontstop' - it's the weekend so here is a 3,000 word long read charting an incredible journey. /1 Thread…
@BorisJohnson The end - though we didn't know it - was in the beginning.

Per sources, as @BorisJohnson was taking office, there were briefings in 70 Whitehall (DexEU) for in coming officials, including @DavidGHFrost who was to become sherpa.

Solutions and fixes were mooted. /2
@BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost Per sources, the solutions, respecting all EU/UK redlines, included time limits, exit mechanims and hybrid customs solutions like those proposed in May 2018 by NI civil service.

They were put in a memo and.../3…
Read 31 tweets

This changes the whole arithmetic and procedure for tomorrow, if Speaker allows it to be voted on.

With Labour backing this will likely pass. So Johnson MUST ask for an extension. MPs will not be bounced into a decision.
I have also hence deleted my vote prediction tweets for tomorrow, because it is now highly likely that all of this will not actually come to a vote.

As Boles, Letwin and Hammond, P are backing the Amendment, it's odds on to pass.
Also note to #EUCO, @eucopresident, Macron, Merkel et al - that extension request is going to be coming!
Read 3 tweets
Right then

It's the pre #EUCO #BrexitDiagram you have been waiting for!

V29, based on knowing we have a framework for a Deal
I admit V28 put the chances of Johnson even getting a Deal as too low - only .2

However the total impact of him having done so is not that significant, because the chances this works in London are v slim still, due to the DUP (still only 10% chance Deal passes)
This also accounts for there being the extra session of Parliament on 19 Oct

And also Labour firming up its position on #PeoplesVote
Read 5 tweets
The Brexit deal:!kQ64wy
#Brexit agreement:
-fair and balanced
-protects peace and stability on the island of Ireland
-fully protects our Single Market

We recommend #EUCO to endorse the agreement reached on the revised Protocol on Ireland/NI and revised Political Declaration!Rp76DV
The revised Protocol responds to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland with the aim of protecting peace and stability.

All other elements of the Withdrawal Agreement remain unchanged in substance, as per the agreement reached on 14 November 2018.
Read 4 tweets

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