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Most recents (16):
Let's think about the Brexit impact of Windrush/Rudd:

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(to be clear, this isn't the most important aspect of it all, but Rudd's resignation does make for more of a connection)

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Let's start w Rudd herself.

Her resignation causes assorted Brexit headaches for May/CONs

3/
Read 19 tweets
Some thoughts on the @dailytelegraph story: in the negotiations since the March #EUCO the UK has not put forward a formal paper. So, hard to see how there can be a “forensic annihilation” of something that hasn’t been commited to paper.
Acc to EU sources, the UK *has* been putting forward “reheated” versions of the August customs papers which were largely dismissed at the time as “magical thinking”. So in that sense, they would most likely be rejected again.
However, a definitive rejection of British proposals would not be a call that EU Task Force officials would have made on Wednesday. That kind of call is normally made by EU leaders following a recommendation by @MichelBarnier via the General Affairs Council.
Read 5 tweets
If you're patting yourself on the back about how well Art.50 went this week, a couple of reminders:

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Transition wasn't settled yesterday. Instead, both sides have accepted a draft text.

That text remains subject to further negotiation, either on its own terms of because of other elements of the WA

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Moreover, like all the other bits of the WA, the jointly-agreed text had no legal value unless and until the entire WA is ratified by all relevantt

3/
Read 11 tweets
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Back in Brussels 🇪🇺 after 3 weeks in DC & NYC 🇺🇸

High on my 'To do' list:

Catching up on avalanche of news on #CambridgeAnalyticaFiles.
Starting here:

‘I made Steve Bannon’s psychological warfare tool.’

Meet @chrisinsilico, the data war whistleblower.

#CambridgeAnalyticaFiles #CambridgeAnalytica
#InformationWarfare #BigTech #BigData

theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/…
Read & follow @carolecadwalla for outstanding reporting on the big, dark tangled web of Brexit, Trump, Russia -- and how Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, WikiLeaks, Bannon, the Mercers, are involved.

#CambridgeAnalyticaFiles #BigTech #BigData

theguardian.com/news/series/ca…
Read 19 tweets
The #Skripal case is very serious, and has the potential to become much more serious still. But it is also the first real test of UK position in foreign and security after #Brexit.

A balanced thread. /1
What’s missing after #Brexit?

Mainly the EU institutions. The UK briefed its allies inter alia via the EU’s Political & Security Committee, and @eucopresident put #Skripal on the agenda of next week’s #EUCO. /2
What’s different after #Brexit?

First, sanctions. While it is far from clear whether the EU will currently back up the UK on sanctions ag Russia, it is equally clear that any sanctions put forward by the UK wd be far more effective if adopted at EU level /3
Read 8 tweets
Some thoughts on the possible scenarios for October #EUCO:

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This is prompted by my thread yesterday, where I considered whether Art.50 is at an impasse (spoiler: not yet)



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Some opening comments first: main point is that this is a first cut, so I welcome comments

3/
Read 10 tweets
A thread on how the Art.50 talks might move on:

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So we now have some sense of where next sides are on all the major issues: Phase 1, transition and the New Relationship. Sure, it's patchy but we know considerable more than we di

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Rather than break things down in huge detail, let's take a more practical approach and think what needs to be done and when

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Read 25 tweets
The morning after the day before thread on #RoadToBrexit speech:

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Circumstance meant I didn't get to indulge in the tweet-fest y'day afternoon, so I'm making a virtue of that and reflect on the impression w a bit more distance

2/
Run-up: this differed from Lancaster Hse or Florence in that there was less run-up (in time), but lots more associated activity.

3/
Read 31 tweets
Catch me on @skynews at 12.30 GMT - where I will be discussing Theresa May’s meeting with Angela Merkel in Berlin. #Brexit
1. In case it wasn’t already clear - Germany’s position on Brexit will not change. The U.K. has a history of over-relying in Germany in EU negotiations. (Cameron made this mistake too.)
2. This displays a misunderstanding of the vital political, strategic and economic importance of the EU to Germany.
Read 14 tweets
Some thoughts on the duration of transition

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It is generally agreed that there will be a gap between the UK leaving the EU and the coming-into-force of a new relationship.

I'll call this the 'transition' period despite all the issues that come w that label

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During this time, the EU and UK will negotiate the new relationship, on the same legal basis as any other third-state agreement the EU runs

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Read 21 tweets
#EUCO today. Sufficient Progress decision. How did we get here and where do we go? Thread.
1. UK miscalculated EU's unity, inflexibility, popularity among member states and overestimated UK's hand.
2. Unity: all agreed that importance of internal market to EU far outweighs importance of good deal with britain.
Read 7 tweets
So, a quick round-up of the main points to note from this morning's #A50 agreement:

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It's only a rpt (from COM and HMG) to #EUCO, so still have to sign off on it next week, so not definitive yet

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Even if we assume #EUCO does sign off, the detail isn't locked in until end of #A50 negotiations and ratification, so nothing is legally banked

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Read 12 tweets
A brief reminder on why the next two months matter in #A50 land

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The Oct #EUCO decided that while there was progress on Phase I of talks, there wasn't sufficient progress

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That meant no opening of Phase II talks in #A50, just preparation of a mandate for them, as a bone to show willing/good faith

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Read 17 tweets
1. Late to party but better late than never! I've translated Germany's FAS account on May-Juncker, #EUCO & 'no sufficient progress' (Thread)
2. Here is the original article on FAS: "Brexit negotiations: Not possible without pain." faz.net/aktuell/politi…
3. With her hands tied at home, TM begged EU leaders to help her.
Read 16 tweets
1. Too much is being read in Merkel's #EUCO #Brexit comments. For balance let's see how the German/EU press is reporting today. (Thread)
2. FAZ comment: "The nervousness in the Kingdom is great. And the anger of Brexiteers against the EU is probably even greater."
3. FAZ: "TM assured EU citizens they didn't have to worry about their future status, and tried to set a mark of goodwill for summit" [con't]
Read 19 tweets
Some thoughts on #EUCO and #Brexit

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Zero chance of moving to Phase II, so will be all about optics. Everyone needs to take something home

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COM needs to show it's in control: EU27 want to know their dosh/citizens are safe: May needs to not look supine

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Read 9 tweets
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