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Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #euco

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Let's unpick Barnier's "6 to 8 weeks" timeline for a deal on the WA:

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1/
That's the first half of Nov, when we hear ever more mutterings about a special #EUCO

2/
Given the downgrading of the Oct #EUCO (now only one day) in light of non-progress, the new mtg wld be the most convenient first point to get the WA signed off

3/
Read 11 tweets
Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Read 12 tweets
European Parliament has just had an update on #Brexit from @danutahuebner who chairs the @EPInstitutional committee and is on the Brexit Steering Group (1)
▶️no idea when Brexit deal will arrive at European Parliament
▶️last point that Parliament can vote is first plenary session in March 19 because the second session would be too late
▶️negotiations have intensified but she hopes this isn't "a trick" (2)
▶️She had a meeting with @ukineu Sir Tim Barrow about the endgame
▶️political declaration on future relationship will not be legal text or legally binding
▶️views shifting towards political declaration being general because not enough time to negotiate the detail (3)
Read 5 tweets
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This is an important development, for several reasons:

1/
Firstly, it's a much more public recognition of what was already widely understood: progress has been too minimal since March(!) On WA issues to allow for an Oct #EUCO conclusion

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That in turn means that there's a drop in pressure to bust a gut right now to get things moving (Not that anyone was very obviously so doing)

3/
Read 7 tweets
I repost this, mainly because the situation has moved rather a lot since:

1/
At the time (March), things looked a lot more open, so the various scenarios were quite balanced in their likelihood

2/
However, the intervening delays and disagreements have now shifted that balance quite markedly

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aua, das tut weh: #Seehofers Demontage durch die Vertretung der Bundesregierung in Brüssel passt in einen Thread. 1/6
Seehofer versprach Großbritannien einen speziellen Deal in der Sicherheitspolitik post-#Brexit. Den wird es nicht geben — schrieb @GermanyintheEU an die @EU_Commission. Der kurze Brief im Wortlaut: 2/6
"Mit Schreiben vom 27. Juni hat sich Bundesminister Seehofer zur künftigen Zusammenarbeit..in Fragen der inneren Sicherheit geäußert. Ich möchte klarstellen, dass es sich hierbei um ein in der Bundesregierung nicht abgestimmtes Schreiben handelt." 3/6
Read 6 tweets
How about we start this lovely morning with a trip down memory lane?

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You'll recall the Maastricht treaty: bane of eurosceptics, source of so many woes, embodiment of federal visions? Whatever

Today I'm more interested in its signing

2/
If you think back to then (those of you old enough to remember the early 1990s), you probably think about this: the late-night debates and arguments in 9-10 Dec at the #EUCO
3/
Read 13 tweets
A quick couple of thoughts on the 'darkest before the dawn' view of Brexit:

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The next couple of weeks really do matter for Brexit, not least because several other, earlier crunch points resulting in stasis

2/
EU broadly accepted that last week's #EUCO wouldn't produce much, largely because of the promise of next week's White Paper (WP)

3/
Read 17 tweets
My take on #EUCO compromise on #EUmigration for @delorsinstitut: Most proposals build on existing ideas & EU leaders fail to move beyond lowest common denominator. THREAD delorsinstitut.de/en/all-publica…
1/7 Decision to expand Frontex mandate is not new. It basically resembles decision to establish EBCG & MFF proposal (€ 21bn for Frontex & Border Management Fund)
2/7 Idea of 'controlled centres' appears as continuation of hotspot system. Unclear how human rights safeguards & detention are handled. Also: EASO/EUAA lack mandate to process asylum claims. 'Rapid & secure' processing would have to be done by MS
Read 8 tweets
My mind keeps returning to this extraordinary and ridiculous #Brexit tweet from Downing Street earlier:


1/12
Commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act.

Seriously, commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act?

The Brexit equivalent of Charles and Diana commemorative mugs, as one wag said to me on Twitter.

2/12
Ultimately history will judge whether the Withdrawal Act was an important staging post on the route towards Brexit.

Trying to pre-judge the historic-ness of it (or not) just looks crass. Like something from The Thick of It.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Understand Italy threatening to block everything at #EUCO. Source says PM Conte “arrogant and made a fool of himself” during very heated discussion
Note: Italy blocking conclusions on everything because of immigration before immigration even discussed. You can see why other leaders irritated
Read 3 tweets
Some thoughts on the idea of establishing refugee “reception centres” / “disembarkation platforms” outside the EU's borders, which will be discussed at #EUCO later this week.

While the concept has some merits, its implementation is fraught with problems. [THREAD, 1/ ]
The idea, in short, is to create centres outside the EU (e.g. Northern Africa, Balkans), where refugees can lodge their asylum claims & have them assessed by authorities. If asylum is granted, they can then travel on into EU safely. 2/
There are some attractive aspects to this model. Deaths would be reduced as refugees would no longer need to cross the Mediterranean (>3.100 deaths last year) to claim asylum. Smuggling business would go down & threat to Schengen zone would be reduced. 3/
Read 15 tweets
A couple of points on issue connection at this week's #EUCO

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Brexit is on the agenda, but right down the list, as EU has plenty of other stuff to deal with.

Info here: consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/eu…

2/
That other stuff is proving problematic, and pressingly so, so expect it to take up much of the bandwidth tomorrow and Fri

3/
Read 12 tweets
A quick reminder of how the EU handles Brexit:

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(this is in anticipation of Thurs/Fri when ppl complain 'EU isn't talking much about it' (and again for Oct & Dec and even any special Art.50 mtgs)

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#EUCO meetings now only discuss Art.50/Brexit at two points:

informally when UK is present (eg at dinner)

and in formal session, when UK is absent (after main EUCO)

3/
Read 11 tweets
This is a good starting point for thinking about what #EUCO Is going to do this week:

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There are two, interlinked issues at play this week.

Desire to get a WA deal and lack of UK suggestions on how to get to one

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EU, like HMG, wants a deal very much, because no-deal is both intrinsically bad and it'll add to the already overly-long list of problems on its plate

3/
Read 15 tweets
🚢🤔📈🧐📉

So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.

Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? 👇
First: PERCEPTIONS MATTER. 📺🤔

Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.👇
Second: DETERRENCE VS NGOs does not pay off (much).🚢⛔️📉

Over the last two weeks of the new goverment's "deterring measures", the decline in sea arrivals vs 2017 is broadly in line with the drop experienced since July 2017. With or without #Aquarius and #Lifeline arrivals. 👇
Read 8 tweets
Of the various Brexit stories floating about right now, this is the one that matters most.

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Pushing a final deal back past Oct makes sense given the lack of progress since the spring, but it comes at a considerable cost

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Firstly, it means that all the leeway for any further delay is gone: whether it's a special #EUCO in Nov or the regular one in Dec, both sides must reach agt then

3/
Read 10 tweets
Key pts from the weekend for Brexit:

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Reports of delays in White Paper v.likely to mean nothing of substance from HMG before #EUCO at end of the month

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That's important because EU has said it needs to see 'substantial progress' on IE dimension by then, if it's not to double-down on Option C backstop.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Let's think about the Brexit impact of Windrush/Rudd:

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(to be clear, this isn't the most important aspect of it all, but Rudd's resignation does make for more of a connection)

2/
Let's start w Rudd herself.

Her resignation causes assorted Brexit headaches for May/CONs

3/
Read 19 tweets
Some thoughts on the @dailytelegraph story: in the negotiations since the March #EUCO the UK has not put forward a formal paper. So, hard to see how there can be a “forensic annihilation” of something that hasn’t been commited to paper.
Acc to EU sources, the UK *has* been putting forward “reheated” versions of the August customs papers which were largely dismissed at the time as “magical thinking”. So in that sense, they would most likely be rejected again.
However, a definitive rejection of British proposals would not be a call that EU Task Force officials would have made on Wednesday. That kind of call is normally made by EU leaders following a recommendation by @MichelBarnier via the General Affairs Council.
Read 5 tweets
If you're patting yourself on the back about how well Art.50 went this week, a couple of reminders:

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Transition wasn't settled yesterday. Instead, both sides have accepted a draft text.

That text remains subject to further negotiation, either on its own terms of because of other elements of the WA

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Moreover, like all the other bits of the WA, the jointly-agreed text had no legal value unless and until the entire WA is ratified by all relevantt

3/
Read 11 tweets
Back in Brussels 🇪🇺 after 3 weeks in DC & NYC 🇺🇸

High on my 'To do' list:

Catching up on avalanche of news on #CambridgeAnalyticaFiles.
Starting here:

‘I made Steve Bannon’s psychological warfare tool.’

Meet @chrisinsilico, the data war whistleblower.

#CambridgeAnalyticaFiles #CambridgeAnalytica
#InformationWarfare #BigTech #BigData

theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/…
Read & follow @carolecadwalla for outstanding reporting on the big, dark tangled web of Brexit, Trump, Russia -- and how Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, WikiLeaks, Bannon, the Mercers, are involved.

#CambridgeAnalyticaFiles #BigTech #BigData

theguardian.com/news/series/ca…
Read 19 tweets
The #Skripal case is very serious, and has the potential to become much more serious still. But it is also the first real test of UK position in foreign and security after #Brexit.

A balanced thread. /1
What’s missing after #Brexit?

Mainly the EU institutions. The UK briefed its allies inter alia via the EU’s Political & Security Committee, and @eucopresident put #Skripal on the agenda of next week’s #EUCO. /2
What’s different after #Brexit?

First, sanctions. While it is far from clear whether the EU will currently back up the UK on sanctions ag Russia, it is equally clear that any sanctions put forward by the UK wd be far more effective if adopted at EU level /3
Read 8 tweets
Some thoughts on the possible scenarios for October #EUCO:

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This is prompted by my thread yesterday, where I considered whether Art.50 is at an impasse (spoiler: not yet)



2/
Some opening comments first: main point is that this is a first cut, so I welcome comments

3/
Read 10 tweets
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