Interesting lineup of Team Russia at expanded meeting with Team U.S. #HelsinkiSummit 1/
It's Putin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov, Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, best MFA interpreter Alexey Sadykov, He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, Minister Sergey Lavrov Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov, head of MFA North America department Georgy Borisenko (note taker)
Nearly everyone on the list is a usual suspect and matching to their U.S. counterpart with an exception for Peskov. Kelly's direct counterpart should be Anton Vaino, Putin's chief of staff, Peskov besides being President's spokesperson is technically his deputy 3/
Looks like Peskov, a Turkey hand and a former diplomat, has a bigger foreign policy role than his normal function would suggest. He sits in most of Putin's meetings with foreign leaders, and was rumored to be among candidates to succeed Lavrov at the MFA. 4/
Fun fact: in Steele's dossier Peskov is named as a Kremlin official in charge of kompromat on Trump. I hugely doubt it: if the tape exists, it's very hard to imagine that Peskov, one of the few members of Putin's inner circle with no KGB background would be in charge of it 5/
Fiona Hill's counterpart is MFA's Borisenko. Head of MFA area department as a note taker in a summit is a standard Russian practice. Borisenko is not influential on policy towards the US, and one has to guess how influential is Hill on Russia policy of this White House 6/6
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Today's meeting between Putin and Xi before opening of BRICS summit is like an iceberg - the invisible part under the water is much bigger than the one meant for outside observers. However, there is an interesting detail in the Kremlin's otherwise laconic readout... 1/7
2/ ... and it's the list of people present from both sides. For some reason, Xi is accompanied not only with top figures of his national security team (Cai Qi, Wang Yi etc.), but he has also brought to Kazan some of the key members of his economic team. kremlin.ru/supplement/6214
3/ Among them are Pan Gongsheng (PBOC), Zheng Shanjie (NDRC), Lan Foan (minister of finance), Wang Wentao (minister of commerce). Interesting contrast to the fact that samae officials (Pan & Lan) have skipped a BRICS ministerial in Moscow just a week ago. reuters.com/world/top-bric…
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Is China distancing itself from Russia economically, as the West urges Beijing to do amid war in Ukraine? Not really, if you look at this week's travel of Ding Xuexiang, one of Xi's top economic lieutenants. 1/15
2/ This year 🇺🇸 has invested a lot of effort to choke off Chinese support for the Russian war machine, including threats of sanctions against 🇨🇳 banks involved in trade, and tightening the screws against landmark projects like Arctic LNG-2. Is it working?
3/ 🇨🇳customs statistics shows that breakneck pace (+26.3%) of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade growth in 2023 has slowed down to just 1.8% in Jan-June 2024. Key here is a visible drop in 🇨🇳 exports to 🇷🇺 by 0.8% (imports have grown by 3.9%). customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…
Why is China not attending 🇺🇦 Peace Summit in🇨🇭? What may be 🇨🇳 plan for diplomacy around the war started by Xi's partner Vladimir Putin? Some thoughts in a new @ForeignAffairs piece, and more details in this🧵 foreignaffairs.com/china/why-chin…
2/ Roots of 🇨🇳 decision to skip 🇨🇭 summit can be traced back to last August, when Xi's special envoy Li Hui 李辉 appeared in Jeddah, which sparked expectations that Beijing is ready to engage in multilateral diplomacy based on @ZelenskyyUa peace formula. wsj.com/articles/with-…
3/ However, after Li sat through the discussion and had brief conversation with @JakeSullivan46 & Toria Nuland, China's conclusion was that it shouldn't engage in next rounds. The agenda is set by @AndriyYermak, the peace formula doesn't change to include 🇨🇳 suggestions, and...
What does a cabinet reshuffle in Russia mean for 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties? It's about continuity, deepening, and long-term. Also, as Beijing and Moscow expand their defense industrial cooperation, Putin has elevated high-caliber professionals with China experience. 🧵
2/ Putin's government set to be appointed by Duma today is an old-new cabinet, with very few changes. This is a quite competent team that has worked together for 3+ years. They have weathered COVID, war, and sanctions - much better than Russian generals perform on the battlefield
3/ For 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties, this continuity is very important. Since Xi's state visit to Moscow in March 2023, the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai have invested serious effort in order to get senior officials on both sides to know each other well.
Is 🇺🇸 recent push to choke off 🇨🇳 supplies of dual-use goods to 🇷🇺 having an effect? It looks like it, according to the newest Chinese customs data. But I'm not holding my breath: over the last 2+ years Beijing and Moscow have found ways to adapt to U.S. sanctions. Short 🧵
2/ Newest customs statistics is out, and it shows that Beijing's exports to Russia continue to decline for a second month. April shipments to 🇷🇺 are $8.3b, down 13.7% compared to April 2023. This is bigger than yoy exports drop to 🇺🇸 (-2.8%) or 🇪🇺 (-3.6%). customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…
3/ Russian exports to China are growing ($11.5b in April), but the drop of imports is significant and it builds on nearly 16% drop in March - the first such decline of 🇨🇳 exports to 🇷🇺 since summer 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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What lessons are Chinese leaders learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine? They may be the opposite of those the @WhiteHouse wants them to learn. Some thoughts from a @WSJopinion piece, in a short🧵 wsj.com/articles/xi-ji…
2/ The demonstrative effect of Western reaction to Putin's aggression was very much on U.S. policymakers' mind very early on. Here is how @SecBlinken is talking about it last year in Helsinki. ru.usembassy.gov/secretary-blin…