Ok, with Trump set to take the stage in West Virginia in a mere 90 mins, might as well take a swing at what we might see from him.

The Vegas betting odds have installed "Completely raging like an unhinged lunatic" as the odds-on favorite.

I'm gonna throw a curve though.

1/
I used to write about Trump's narcissistic personality disorder all the time. Back in the day, it was almost eerie how accurately his shtick could be predicted. Folks who have been around my feed for a while can vouch for that...

It has gotten harder though...

2/
...not because Trump has become less predictable. Nope. That dude is the simplest of simple machines. With enough insight into what he's experiencing, he'd be regular as rain.

We just don't have enough of a window anymore. We see too little.

3/
Today though, there's no way he could know more than we know. He had no advanced knowledge of the Manafort verdict. It's unlikely he knew about the Cohen plea.

So, we know what Trump is taking in as new inputs...

4/
While he'd seem likely to rage, like a whole lotta people with NPD, Babyfingers tends to go quiet when he is completely "caught". He freezes. Retreats. Cocoons himself away from scrutiny.

He can't do that on stage obviously...

5/
So, I'd wager he's going to instead focus on distancing himself from Cohen and Manafort.

Narcissists have only two impulses: Seek adoration; avoid shame.

Trump will likely aim to avoid shame by pushing Cohen and Manafort as far away as possible.

6/
I won't be shocked at all to hear Senor Loco dismiss the Cohen and Manafort convictions as having absolutely nothing to do with him...

...and then pivot off that to blaming the media for alleging he's in trouble when those other fellas' problems have nothing to do with him..

7/
My money is on Trump surprising folks.

Look for:
1) A more sedate Trump than expected
2) Effort to distance himself from Cohen/Manafort
3) A show of empathy for only Manafort
4) Insisting "collusion" was the only legitimate accusation Mueller was supposed to investigate

8/
5) Whining about how unfair it is to HIM that Mueller is going after other people who's issues have "nothing to do with him"
6) Insisting that Mueller's investigation is STILL a "Witch Hunt" because it has delivered no proof he "colluded" and is now "spiraling out of control"

9/
Bottom-line: I'm guessing tonight's one-hour crazygram from the dais will mostly be about distancing the narcissist from the shame...

If Trump shows up with a flat affect and way less fire than he usually brings - and everyone expects tonight - somebody owes me beer.

<end>
p.s. just saw the day's other news: the tragic story out of Brooklyn, Iowa of Mollie Tibbetts body being found; an immigrant here illegally arrested.

Add a #8 to the above list. Trump will absolutely blow the dogwhistle about open borders, immigrants and the need for a wall.

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More from @TheRealHoarse

Feb 18
So, I stop at my local outdoor store to buy longjohns and wool socks for Curlapalooza this weekend.

Get to talking with the cashier who happens to know a great deal about the physics of curling.

“Just Google it.” he says “Google ‘physics of curling’.”

Umm. I’m frightened now.
Ohhhhhh, the rotational equilibrium… of course!

(note to self: Google ‘rotational equilibrium’)
Ah, the classic rivalry: friction v. contact pressure.

The Hatfields and McCoys of physics.

I have no idea what I’m even talking about here. I was an English major.

I could give you some decent free verse on the metaphor of the curling stone. I wasn’t told about the math tho.
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Feb 17
There is a house I pass by on occasion.

It is a sore thumb. A little stone chalet with a Swiss-ish turret clock behind a curved stone wall.

It has always struck me as an authentic place leftover from a different time.

1/
It is on a busy road and is a block away from a major highway.

It just always felt like an authentic leftover to me though.

So, I looked it up.

100 years ago, it was the gatehouse for a sprawling estate incomprehensibly vast by today’s standards.

2/
A mile or more up that dirt road was *one of the homes* of the oil baron, Louis Hyde.

It was a solid drive from that little gatehouse to a mountainside mansion.

3/
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Feb 12
My son and I do a thing where we scout “Best of…” food lists for new places, pick one, and make an outing of it. Barbecue, Latino food, ice cream shops, breakfast places.

Nothing fancy. Just good places that are new to us that we can make an outing of…

1/
These outings feel like little trips. Mini-adventures.

This morning, we did a breakfast run. Half-hour drive. Half-hour wait.

Sweet. Fancy. Moses.

Worth it. Delicious.

2/
Glazed pork belly bites on a stick.

Nacho omelette cups.

Pork roll, egg, and cheese egg rolls with cranberry ketchup.

Basically, three small dishes we shared.

So fun, these little roadies.

//
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Feb 12
Sitting with my son at an empty restaurant counter, the two of us drifting in and out of conversation as we tend to do.

An older woman walks up to me and says “Excuse me. Is this your son? I just wanted to say, you seem very comfortable with each other. It’s nice to see.”

1/
Let me tell you, that is among the nicest things anyone has ever said to me.

It is one thing to feel like you have a close, comfortable relationship with your child. It is another to have someone else tell you they can tell.

It was so out of the blue. And it made my day.

2/
And this wasn’t today. It was months ago.

I still think of it often.

I think it was that she saw us in the most regular of moments. We were there eating a casual bite, drifting in and out of being present, talking and then not, quiet and then talking some more.

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Feb 10
People who act like this are shitheads.

I can't even begin to tell you how many times some self-absorbed asshole has gone off on me like this while having no idea that my problems absolutely dwarfed their little drama they mistook for a crisis.

I hate people who do this. Image
For real, no joke, when my entire life was burning down, some person would just go off and then be like “I’m sorry. I’m just dealing with a lot right now.”

and it was never close to “a lot”.

It was always only *one* of the checkboxes on my list.
Always wanted to say:

“Ya ain’t the first to get divorced. Ya ain’t the first to have someone die. Ya ain’t the first to have crushing debt or lose your house or job. Ya ain’t even the first to have all of them at once. Your shit ain’t new, different or bigger.”
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Feb 9
I have learned a lot about people and social dynamics from my experiences on Twitter.

One of the little insights: There are people on here who think reading someone’s tweets is like knowing them really well in real-life.

1/
That population on here tends to dramatically over-read and over-value minor things - both good and bad - as if they are hugely telling about a person…

and those people often change their whole opinion about someone based on those incidental little things.

2/
The irony is that the people in that group seem to think of themselves as really discriminating judges of character - as if they are far better at judging others than most - when, in fact, they tend to be much worse.

They have huge confirmation bias issues.

3/
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