The Hoarse Whisperer Profile picture
“A Twitter rando” - Rolling Stone mag. Purveyor of opinions, commentary and sarcasm. Beer money happily accepted here: https://t.co/zHuibZHnhB
RobinK Profile picture Sʀᴀʏᴢɪᴇ Profile picture #Joe_Is-My-President Profile picture Barb Profile picture SocialMediaWarriorForABlueAmerica Profile picture 273 added to My Authors
3 Dec
The next chapter in my now comical quest to find a PlayStation 5 for my son...

Having now been shutout online and in person over and over, I’ve incrementally upped my game.

Followed a bunch of accounts that track restocks. Set alerts to get txts whenever they tweet.

1/
Also set up online shopping accounts at major resellers preconfigured for fast check out.

Downloaded all their apps.

And then I found an app that tracks actual store inventories. Not what their website says they have in inventory; what they actually have in the back room.

2/
I am now at CIA-level PS5 surveillance.

If a unit hits a shelf within the atomic blast radius of New York City, I know in minutes.

3/
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
This is actually comical.

Get to Walmart at 3:45. Line grows to probably 100 deep (spaced way further apart than those folks up front).

At 4:59, as they’re opening the doors, an employee announces they have no Xbox’s or PS5s.

Huge groan erupts. 2/3 of the people walk away. 😂
Just a postscript on this rather than reply to a bunch of the same comments.

Might just be my area but this wasn’t your typical Black Friday scene.

- line well spaced out
- everyone in masks. 100% compliance.
- store was capacity controlled
- staff directing customer flow
I can count on one hand how many retailers I’ve been to in the last eight months.

This was more orderly and less crowded than a grocery store.

I’m in no hurry to shop retail for the holidays but this store, at least, was doing a good job.
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
Six years ago today, a 12-year old boy was standing alone in a park.

Police pulled up and opened fire before their car had even stopped moving.

A child was shot and killed in literally two seconds.

1/
The two officers were responding to a dispatcher’s call about a “person with a gun.”

The original caller had said the person was “possibly a juvenile” and the gun was “probably fake”; the dispatcher didn’t pass that along.

Instead, the police just pulled up and opened fire.

2/
The 12-year old boy was indeed a juvenile and the gun was indeed “fake”.

It was a toy and it was tucked into his waistband.

He wasn’t holding it or brandishing it. He was just a kid with a toy gun tucked into his belt.

3/
Read 8 tweets
22 Nov
Oh my.

Michigan misses the field goal attempt in OT.

Rutgers with the ball and a chance to win.
Ooof. Rutgers misses the FG and it’s on to a second OT.
And a third OT.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
So, somehow, I am now the father of a teenager.

The little boy who would wake up early, climb out of bed and pitter-patter across the hardwood to climb under the covers with me... he’s a teenager now.

1/
The 5 lb 13 ounce peanut who arrived five weeks early and almost didn’t survive his first night...

The tiny little one who I would sing to sleep on my shoulder...

A teenager.

2/
When kids are little, people say “Don’t worry, it gets better.”

I never needed it to get better.

I loved when he was just a tiny bundle swaddled and asleep in my lap as I stayed up all night watching movies as his mom slept.

I loved the 2s, 3s and 4s. I have loved it all.

3/
Read 16 tweets
13 Nov
America’s Biggest Loser, the defeated Donald J. Trump, speaking live at the White House.

Turned it on to hear him lying about how he is somehow responsible for development of a vaccine not in any way aided by his administration.
Trump’s hair has already faded to a lifeless color reminiscent of Paul Manafort’s after his check-in to Club Fed.

His face, as always, looks like a pumpkin pie with two pieces of uncooked bologna for eyes.
Babyfingers now bragging about having procured a stockpile of Remdesivir - which recently showed no clinical benefit in a large scale study.

Sure, it’s an expensive placebo but, hey, we’ve got truckloads.

This fuckopotamus is truly a snake oil salesman.
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
My understanding is that Trump basically “lent” money to his Scottish golf courses for “improvements” and then upped the claimed value of the courses to offset the debt without making any readily apparent significant improvements.

1/
This would seem to raise the question of whether there ever actually was a loan (or were these instead tax dodges of some kind).

And if there was a loan, was that money spent on improvements or laundered back to Trump somehow.

2/
There is something very amiss in the numbers though.

The Scottish golf courses are huge sinks. They lose a ton of money. The Aberdeen property stood no chance of ever being sustainably profitable (IMHO).

Yet, Trump has made no moves to plug what appear to be gaping losses.

3/
Read 5 tweets
13 Nov
When Trump was first elected, it was a bit eerie how precisely I could map out his behaviors in advance.

Folks who have followed me for a long time can probably attest to that.

A lot of people who have seen a narcissist up close could do the same. They’re just predictable.

1/
They are so programmed, they’re incapable of surprise.

They are hardwired to make all decisions based on two driving motivations.

What best helps them:

- avoid being seen as shameful, contemptible, unworthy of respect

- earn admiration, esteem; be seen as special

2/
Those twin drivers make all their decisions simple calculations. They can’t weigh complexity or trade offs.

They can’t long-term plan... because even if they did, they’d still compulsively for the thing best for those two needs right now.

3/
Read 17 tweets
13 Nov
The best thing us deep-blue-staters can do to help the Georgia runoffs is give them all the money and none of the advice.

Stacey Abrams, et al, know what they’re doing.
To folks bringing up phone-banking, etc, awesome... just go through an org on the ground in GA (or one that is coordinating/being directed by an org in GA).

An uncoordinated hurricane of out-of-state messages would hurt rather than help.
Links to donate or make calls for Jon Ossoff.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
Someone I used to be good friends with moved out to a red state about ten years ago.

He was my creative partner in a small ad agency. A laid-back, funny, fun guy in a liberal, creative industry.

Just about the LAST guy I’d ever imagine becoming a Trumper.

1/
After he moved, he apparently jumped into the Fox News pool with both feet.

Yesterday, he posted the most unhinged rant about how it is actually Republicans who have been wronged by Democrats for years and years.

It was so irrational, it bordered on psychosis.

2/
It was a thousand-word rant about how Repubs had been victimized by Dems.

I mean, completely insane shit. e.g. Feminists were mean to Sarah Palin.

It isn’t even a cult at this point. It’s engrained psychosis no different than the brainwashing of North Koreans by state media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
People pushing for unity and outreach need to immediately cease.

I’ve read a slew of messages from people on the right and they aren’t taking that as an interest in peace.

They’re taking it as a confession of prior wrongdoing.

1/
They are taking it to mean Dems know they have no actual reason to hold a burning grudge or animus - WHILE THEY DO.

Stop. Fucking. Doing. That.

No, we absolutely don’t need to lead with hugs and olive branches.

2/
Republicans stole the Supreme Court; looted the Treasury; corrupted the entirety of our federal government; and tried their very best to steal another four years.

We should be holding truth and reconciliation hearings.

Do not offer unity on our behalf. It is not yours to offer.
Read 5 tweets
7 Nov
I’m happy for everyone today but in particular, I’m happy for my mom.

She’s a joiner. She gets involved. Before the midterms, each and every week, she protested in front of the offices of her Republican Rep.

She’s been to a slew of town halls with the Dem who replaced him.

1/
She helped sew masks as part of a group of seniors who made 15,000.

As this election neared, she joined a group writing letters to Pennsylvania voters.

The leader of the group asked if she could get some stamps. So she did. Bought a couple hundred.

2/
Then he asked for some more. So she went on eBay and found someone selling Forever Stamps. Bought a few hundred more.

Then he asked again. And again. And again.

UPS envelopes were arriving in the mail slot every other day.

By the end, she had bought over 50,000.

3/
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
So, I dated a woman once whose former father-in-law had been a complete co-conspirator with Bernie Madoff.

She had long suspected it. Her husband, on the other hand, worked for his father and completely believed he was just a legitimate success.

1/
When Madoff went down, her husband remained 100% certain that his father wasn’t a party to Madoff’s scam.

Even as evidence mounted, he just could not be brought to believe the truth about his dad.

2/
Then, one day after they had divorced, he showed up at her door in tears and said “He knew. My dad knew.”

An entire lifetime of denial - even to the point of complete cognitive dissonance - had finally broken down.

And he knew it had all been a lie.

3/
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov
So I popped by my preferred pub for an outdoor pint and a bowl of soup earlier.

After, I masked up and went inside to use the restroom.

It was like that scene from The Shining. But with good juju.

Completely empty. No one save for a bartender who I’m friend’s with...

1/
Jay waved me over and start pouring me a Guinness.

I sat on a stool near the door in case people hustled in and I had to bounce.

“How long has it been—” he said.

“March 12th. Halftime of the Big East Tournament.”
“That’s right. Man, crazy.”

And then we chit-chatted about bullshit. Staff that hasn’t come back to work. Bar gossip. Australia.

Both masked up and a good distance apart.

It was a carve-out: A brief, unusual, moment of normality on an abnormal day.

3/
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
I’m just going to bitch for a second.

We all deal with stress and anxiety differently. I get calm when things gets crazy.

The more people around me freak out, the more I suspend emotion and anchor. That’s just my nature.

1/
There are reasons for that. (Adult children of alcoholics, hello!)

And then, as I’m anchored against a rising wind, I feel the energy of others’ stress and anxiety intensely.

I am more stressed about others’ stress than about my own.

2/
It is no fun to be intensely anxious. It isn’t fun to feel physically and emotionally overwrought.

There are a healthy number of people like myself who say calming, optimistic, positive things because while you may not need to hear them, some people do.

3/
Read 6 tweets
4 Nov
I’m just going to open this as a single thread for general election-related chatter rather than clog your timelines.

Let us commence chatting...

1/
MSNBC showing early returns in Florida. Early voting and vote by mail.

Biden - as expected due to dem skew in early/mail voting - is doing better than HRC did in 2016 in every county.

Based on how much vote remains, Biden looking very competitive in FL so far.
More importantly, I’ve been keeping my eyes peeled for any early signs of weakness like we... shudder... saw in 2016.

So far, all is as expected or positive.

I already feel better about FL than I did in 2016 at this point - and he doesn’t need FL.
Read 11 tweets
3 Nov
So, in Trump’s narcissistic cycle, there is a predictable sequence of phases that play out whenever he is facing a public humiliation.

1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train

1/
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.

Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.

2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.

See: the past week.

It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.

3/
Read 12 tweets
3 Nov
In 2016:

- 57 million people voted early, absentee or by-mail.
- 80 million voted on Election Day

So far in 2020:

- 100 mil voted early, absentee or by-mail

The two big questions:

- how many of those 100 mil are new/unlikely voters?
- what will today’s turnout be?

1/
In a way, Trump is already in a lose-lose situation.

1) He needs a very big turnout today

Thanks to his rhetoric about mail-in voting, his base overwhelmingly skews toward in-person voting this year

2/
But...

2) If today’s turnout exceeds 40 mil votes (only 1/2 of 2016’s Election Day total), 2020 turnout will have exceeded 2016 turnout.

And that favors Biden.

There are only so many white male/no college voters in the country and that’s the only demo DJT is winning handily.
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
Join me for a second in how karmically perfect it would be if the election story ends up being:

1) Trump bungled the COVID response

2) Republican governors went along with him

3) So, pandemic was still raging as the election neared

1/
4) Therefore, voting access had to be expanded from largely in person on a single weekday to also by mail or in-person early

5) And that enabled many who could never vote in person on a Tuesday to vote

6) And that was enough to flip multiple states in the presidential race

2/
7) ...and also flipped races for the Senate and House

8) ...and flipped state races in places like Texas before redistricting

9) ...and that cost Republicans seats for the entire next decade.

Just savor the possibility of that scenario for a moment.

It is a possibility.

3/
Read 6 tweets
1 Nov
I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:

Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.

It is a push-down strategy.

1/
In 2016, didn’t win because he made a winning case to a big enough population.

He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.

2/
He is trying to run the exact same playbook against Biden.

But it isn’t working because:

1) We now understand it

2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost

3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases

3/
Read 11 tweets
1 Nov
This is the moment in the polling cycle I hate the most.

I worked with consumer data for years and years. That requires some science but also some judgment and wisdom.

When you see someone adamantly defending the science alone, take their judgment with a grain of salt.
When a poll is an outlier, there will be a pool of people who rush to defend the methodology, the pollster, the business of polling itself...

And there will be a pool of people who dive into the poll to look for reasons why it was an outlier.

Listen to those latter people.
I find Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) to be very good. My type of analyst. Provides sound macro-level and dives into the specifics when helpful to illuminate the data.
Read 6 tweets