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Aug 23, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Exclusive: World Road Transport Organisation warns of 'complete and utter chaos' in event of no-deal Brexit
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
IRU represents lorry drivers in more than 80 countries. Says all of them are watching the Brexit talks like it's a "sword of Damocles" waiting to fall on them, with a heavy cost for both UK and EU firms
Managing Director Boris Blanche backed the view of the UK's Road Haulage Association, which doubts there will be enough permits for lorry drivers if there's no deal
Meanwhile, IRU advisers warned Britain cannot hope to fall back on ECMT permits. There's a fixed quota worldwide, and as soon as UK asks for a bigger share so will other countries, notably Turkey
It's dire warning, and it comes on the day Brexit secretary Dominic Raab announces his no-deal plan. I understand under his proposals, UK will unilaterally keep its checks to a minimum wherever possible. So it appears EU drivers could continue to work in UK but not vice versa.
That raises other legal concerns however. UK is basically saying it will go cowboy economics if there's no deal. Could trigger a WTO compliant. And as @DavidHenigUK @GeorgePeretzQC and others warn, who wants to do free trade agreements with cowboys?

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More from @JamesERothwell

James Rothwell Profile picture
Nov 21, 2019
Brexit deal in Labour manifesto looks like Norway +++, with economic disruption kept to absolute minimum. Which means in the 2nd referendum the big debate would be whether there's much point in being outside the EU but inside its rule book, without a say on those rules
That means Labour's Brexit negotiators would have to do a lot of work on beefing up the consultation process for UK, which presumably would be inside single market and customs union but not sit at European Council. A furrow not ploughed particularly deeply by the UK (yet)
You would likely end up with a parliamentary delegation of UK MPs to the EU, as Norway has. If any better than that, other EEA/Efta states (Iceland, Liechtenstein) would want the same. So there may not be much leverage over EU decisions that the UK doesn't like
Read 4 tweets
James Rothwell Profile picture
Oct 16, 2019
Per sources, consent from unionists at Stormont - not customs or funding - is now the DUP's biggest problem with the Brexit deal.

Customs - done. Funding - would be nice, but not the key issue

Report from Belfast:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
DUP feels that the EU proposal is the wrong way around, offering an opt-out of EU rules rather than an opt-in.

DUP concerned that anti-Brexit parties in Stormont would never allow a hard border so they would be stuck with the backstop forever.
Other big worry is EU proposals for a simple majority vote in Stormont. DUP sources stress that consent isn't a one way road - got to have unionists and nationalists on board.

If majority in Assembly vote for backstop, but DUP votes against, they say that that is not consent
Read 5 tweets
James Rothwell Profile picture
Oct 1, 2019
On the Johnson Brexit border plan... 1. This was probably designed to cause maximum outrage in Dublin and Brussels, which it has, because it essentially proposes to avoid a hard border by building a soft(ish) border. Once rejected will form part of blame game for lack of deal
There is currently bigger rift between UK and EU than perhaps ever under May. EU always wanted status quo, no checks, alignment to protect their market and GFA. But UK now wants checks and customs posts near border and does not believe this harms GFA. Totally opposed views
On the detail, checks away from the border are politically difficult because the border regions in Northern Ireland are nationalist and therefore border posts are not going to last very long, risk being ripped down. So you'd likely need security to guard the checkpoints
Read 8 tweets
James Rothwell Profile picture
Jul 10, 2019
EXCL: Post-Brexit US trade deal in doubt as documents leaked to Telegraph reveal chronic Whitehall staff shortages, lack of progress in key areas and signs that US administration may be losing interest - by me, @Annaisaac and @asabenn

telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
Documents show that the US has been sending "less senior" officials to meetings with UK counterparts, and that Whitehall is struggling to "get the right people in the room." Meanwhile am told US officials are growing frustrated with lack of progress
The talks are "falling behind schedule," and there is frustration that the UK is delaying the crucial choice of whether it wants to follow US standards and secure a deal, or stick to EU standards to maintain trade with Europe
Read 6 tweets
James Rothwell Profile picture
Jun 21, 2019
Speaking to EU sources, they are not particularly worried about Boris Johnson as PM. But that is based on their expectation that he hits a massive wall in October which leaves him stuck with May's deal or no deal.
This is b/c several big member states have decided to say "Sorry, no" if Johnson asks for an Article 50 extension just for the purpose of rewriting the deal wholesale - and it just takes one "No" to pull the plug.
That leaves PM Johnson in tricky territory end of October. He could ask for an extension that he knows will be rejected, and then blame the EU for 'no deal' and the ensuing turmoil.
Read 9 tweets
James Rothwell Profile picture
May 27, 2019
Dominic Raab, setting out leadership stall: "There is still time to negotiate a legally-binding Exchange of Letters to give the UK a clear exit from the so-called Backstop of EU laws, over which currently we would have no say."
Raab says he will withhold the £39bn Brexit bill and spend it on mitigating the negative effects of leaving on WTO terms if he becomes PM and has to take UK out with no deal
Raab says he's a credible negotiator, citing his experience working on the Brexit deal (which he initially disowned and then supported in parliament) and says he's the man "that Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt complained pushed Brussels too hard".
Read 18 tweets

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