Brexit deal in Labour manifesto looks like Norway +++, with economic disruption kept to absolute minimum. Which means in the 2nd referendum the big debate would be whether there's much point in being outside the EU but inside its rule book, without a say on those rules That means Labour's Brexit negotiators would have to do a lot of work on beefing up the consultation process for UK, which presumably would be inside single market and customs union but not sit at European Council. A furrow not ploughed particularly deeply by the UK (yet)

Per sources, consent from unionists at Stormont - not customs or funding - is now the DUP's biggest problem with the Brexit deal.

Customs - done. Funding - would be nice, but not the key issue

Report from Belfast:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/… DUP feels that the EU proposal is the wrong way around, offering an opt-out of EU rules rather than an opt-in.

DUP concerned that anti-Brexit parties in Stormont would never allow a hard border so they would be stuck with the backstop forever.

On the Johnson Brexit border plan... 1. This was probably designed to cause maximum outrage in Dublin and Brussels, which it has, because it essentially proposes to avoid a hard border by building a soft(ish) border. Once rejected will form part of blame game for lack of deal There is currently bigger rift between UK and EU than perhaps ever under May. EU always wanted status quo, no checks, alignment to protect their market and GFA. But UK now wants checks and customs posts near border and does not believe this harms GFA. Totally opposed views

EXCL: Post-Brexit US trade deal in doubt as documents leaked to Telegraph reveal chronic Whitehall staff shortages, lack of progress in key areas and signs that US administration may be losing interest - by me, @Annaisaac and @asabenn

telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/… Documents show that the US has been sending "less senior" officials to meetings with UK counterparts, and that Whitehall is struggling to "get the right people in the room." Meanwhile am told US officials are growing frustrated with lack of progress

Speaking to EU sources, they are not particularly worried about Boris Johnson as PM. But that is based on their expectation that he hits a massive wall in October which leaves him stuck with May's deal or no deal. This is b/c several big member states have decided to say "Sorry, no" if Johnson asks for an Article 50 extension just for the purpose of rewriting the deal wholesale - and it just takes one "No" to pull the plug.

Dominic Raab, setting out leadership stall: "There is still time to negotiate a legally-binding Exchange of Letters to give the UK a clear exit from the so-called Backstop of EU laws, over which currently we would have no say." Raab says he will withhold the £39bn Brexit bill and spend it on mitigating the negative effects of leaving on WTO terms if he becomes PM and has to take UK out with no deal

Over past year I've spoken to MPs, experts and ministers in Norway and Iceland about what they really think of EEA/Efta membership. So here's a monster thread on the pros and cons of what could end up as the UK's Brexit Plan B For those new to this (hi!), these countries are in the European Economic Area (EEA) which gives them full access to EU's single market. Their judiciary works under the Efta court, instead of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Hence "EEA/Efta".

We are stuck. The risk of 'no deal' Brexit is greater than ever. Is it time to consider a compromise, and opt for a Norway-style Brexit? My latest, from Oslo - also in today's paper:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… First, cards on the table: no it doesn't satisfy everyone. Yes it requires backstop/custom union. And yes it's far from ideal. Now that's out of the way...

Per EU sources, things are not as chaotic as they seem...Dominic Raab walkout was no surprise to EU chiefs and part of No 10 "choreography" to send a message to home audience that May is a staunch defender of UK. There was a "good" proposal from Olly Robbins on the backstop but there were two key issues with it and that's why there was no agreement over the weekend.

Spoke to Dutch foreign minister Stef Blok today. His mother housed British soldiers during Market Garden in WW2, but he made it clear that he won't go soft on the UK over Brexit as it's a "lose-lose" scenario...
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… Stef Blok, apparently a football fan, said Brexit reminded him of a quote from the Netherlands' very own Johan Cruyff: "Each disadvantage has its advantage." And for the Dutch, it's UK firms jumping ship to Amsterdam and Rotterdam

Exclusive: Brexit puts one million penguins on the Falkland Islands at risk. My latest:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… Falkland Islands penguins are currently supported by EU conservation funds such as BEST. No more after we leave the EU.

Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier providing an update on Brexit talks in a few minutes. Watch live here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… Barnier says it's been a "long working morning." Specifically, "We worked together on framework for future relationship and extremely important subject of our citizens' security." Says they prepared for "ambitious" post-Brexit security partnership.

Our Europe editor @pmdfoster wrote a piece tackling 10 crucial questions about Brexit. Some furious Brexiteers, who felt they knew far more about Brexit than Peter, demanded to write a rebuttal. Hilariously, their article doesn't answer the 10 questions...
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… e.g Question 1: How much clout does a nation of 65 million people have in global trade?
They respond "This question is immaterial"

Good project and helpful for public Brexit debate, featuring some interesting policy ideas. But there are a couple of issues here IMO - thread

https://twitter.com/iealondon/status/1034015079937847297

IEA series aims to debunk outlandish Project Fear claims such as "planes won't fly" but then concedes in the small print that these are conceivable scenarios:

Exclusive: World Road Transport Organisation warns of 'complete and utter chaos' in event of no-deal Brexit
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… IRU represents lorry drivers in more than 80 countries. Says all of them are watching the Brexit talks like it's a "sword of Damocles" waiting to fall on them, with a heavy cost for both UK and EU firms

A very reliable source has leaked details about the UK government's 'no-deal' Brexit plans and it is basically Armageddon for the UK road transport industry. THREAD

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… In a UK government plan for 'no deal,' officials admit that a) there is likely to be severe disruption at the ports and b) contrary to earlier government claims, there will not be enough permits available for UK lorry drivers heading to Europe

Thread on Brexit, lorry drivers, Chris Grayling and no deal planning. If you think government's no deal planning is all fine and dandy, *read this*. Full story also below.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… I understand that senior members of Britain's road haulage industry came out of a recent meeting with Grayling where they were astonished by his lack of grasp of the key detail on Brexit

As UK comes under mounting pressure to shift its red lines on Brexit, Iceland points out that being in the EEA hasn't prevented it from doing free trade deals around the world. My latest:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… Iceland's foreign minister also took issue with claim that EEA members are mere ruletakers. “It’s not true we take 80 to 90 per cent of acquis, we have taken 13.4 since 1994...for us, it is a good deal," he told me.

Quick thread on Irish border deal. Dublin sees it, possibly prematurely, as a roaring success for Leo Varadkar and Irish diplomacy. 1/ The Irish had been deeply concerned that UK believed cameras and drones could solve issue (there are already cameras on the border, and Republican dissidents already wreck them) 2/