10 Key Brexit facts

1. Brexit Day is 29 March 2019 at 11pm, unless Article 50 is extended to give us more time. An Article 50 extension requires the unanimous consent of the EU27.
2. Brexit can still be stopped, right up to Brexit Day, by revoking Article 50. Theresa May can revoke Article 50 unilaterally. The EU cannot stop Brexit, only the UK can.
3. Parliament has a say on any Brexit deal, but it doesn't have a say on "no deal". That's because "no deal" isn't a deal at all, but the absence of deals, and the promise to Parliament of a "meaningful vote" only covers a vote on an actual deal.
4. By default, we will automatically enter a "no deal" situation on Brexit Day, unless we agree and ratify a Withdrawal Agreement. That's just how Article 50 works.
5. The only way that Parliament could stop Brexit without Theresa May cooperating would be to force a vote of no confidence that brought down the Government and precipitated a General Election. Ditto if Parliament wanted to prevent a "no deal" Brexit.
6. On Brexit Day, we cease to be EU members. We're out of the EU, gone, finito, the end. That means there's no way to stop Brexit after Brexit Day, regardless of whether there's a transition period or not.
7. On Brexit Day, we lose all benefits from 750+ EU treaties. Imagine a big shredder churning away, shredding all our international agreements. The treaties cover free trade with 50+ countries, flights, medicine certification, UK & EU citizens rights, visa-free travel, etc. etc.
8. We will lose all the treaties on Brexit Day even if we have a Withdrawal Agreement and a transition period. A transition period would give us some of the same benefits as the treaties used to (by copying their conditions) but it does NOT prolong the treaties themselves).
9. We cannot replace the treaties with new arrangements unilaterally, without the cooperation of both the EU and of non-EU countries. That's because we do not have any power to bind other countries without their agreement. Each treaty will have to be renegotiated individually.
10. There is a second "cliff edge" at the end of the transition period. When the temporary benefits of the transition period end, we're already out of the EU, with no treaties. So we face a second "no deal" scenario, unless we can finish negotiating all our new relationships.
Further Reading #1
Information about the trade and non-trade treaties that apply to the UK, and what happens to them after Brexit. HOC "Continuing application of EU trade agreements after Brexit" report:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…
Further Reading #2
Background on the "no deal" situation, how "no deal" can come about, and what the consequences would be. HOC "Article 50 negotiations: Implications of 'no deal'" report:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cm…
Further Reading #3
A current list of the unknown factors surrounding Brexit, to get an idea of the negotiating fog the UK Government is operating in. HOC "Brexit Unknowns" report:
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
Further Reading #4
More background to the 750+ treaties the UK will be losing on Brexit Day. FT article "After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties"
ft.com/content/f1435a…
Further Reading #5
Map of all the trade deals we participate in as EU members. Shaded areas indicate the countries the EU (and currently the UK) can trade with on better-than-WTO terms, or where trade deals are pending. (WTO is the baseline that trade deals seek to improve on.)
Further Reading #6
List of all the trade negotiations the EU is currently engaged in. Note the comprehensiveness of their approach, and the time and effort it has taken to make progress in each case. Negotiating new trade agreements is HARD.
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…

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More from @uk_domain_names

Feb 6
Before Brexit...
- EU Trade: super easy.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

Since Brexit...
- EU Trade: hard.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

The difficulty gap may have "narrowed", but not in a way that benefits businesses at all. Trade is on average harder than before Brexit.
Does it encourage firms to consider trading more outside the EU?

Maybe - but only because they'll have a lousy experience everywhere.

It's like raising the price of apples from £10 to £20, keeping pears at £20. Sells more pears? Maybe. But overall, consumers end up paying more.
A smart country would have tried to figure out how to make hard trade with the rest of the world easier.

A dumb country decided instead to make super easy trade with the EU as hard as trade with the rest of the world.

Welcome to Brexit Britain, where brain cells come to die.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Kirstie Allsopp (bought 1st property age 21) claims young people should fritter less to get on the housing ladder.

HOWEVER...

Average House Price (Nationwide)
- 1992: £50,168
- 2021: £253,113

BOE Inflation Calculator
£50,168 in 1992 = £110,472.43 in 2021

Aha! Penny drops.
Another way of looking at it...

Kirstie Allsopp said her job paid £11,500 a year at the time she bought her first property.

That would be £25,323.57 in 2021 money.

£50,168 is the equivalent of 4.36x her 1992 salary.

But £253,113 is 9.99x her nominal 2021 equivalent salary.
Simply put, a given house is more than twice as unaffordable today (everything else being equal) than in 1992.

Quite amazing that someone who has lived and breathed the property sector for decades seems oblivious to the above differential.

It's hardly rocket science.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
The Brexit effect, hurting a business badly.

(Problem is EU students can no longer travel on ID cards because the UK now requires passports, but kids don't need passports because they can go all over the EU on IDs. Catch-22.)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
Look at the scam in this Treasury press release.

They've called the £200 loan towards energy bills a rebate. It *isn't* a rebate because consumers must repay it in 5 instalments.

Then in the next paragraph there's a council tax rebate that *is* a rebate.
gov.uk/government/new…
It's also referred to as a discount.

Can you imagine if Tesco or Amazon applied the same logic?

We'll give you £20 off your shopping now, but you'll owe us 5 legally binding payments of £4.

You'd be livid if they tried to claim that represented a discount.

It's a 0% APR loan.
And here's the really devious part: the Tories are buying voter goodwill now using money that will largely need repaying after the next GE.

So if Labour win, they'll be left with the ticking time-bomb of Tory debts, and a legally binding obligation for *consumers* to repay them.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
According to the Daily Mail, the Tories have indicated they plan to plunge us all into the dark on the pandemic in April by giving up publishing daily stats.

This on a day that saw more than 500 deaths announced.

Could they gaslight us any harder? Genuinely hard to think how. Image
The whole article is grim. Apparently Boris Johnson plans to bin every single protective measure on March 24, including the requirement to self-isolate if you test positive.

How can the several million extremely vulnerable people ever be safe after that?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
The excuse given is that it's becoming "like the flu" and we don't shut down the whole country over that.

A) Covid killed more people in 2 years than flu did in the last decade.

B) Flu is very seasonal. We've had a high covid death rate since August, with no sign of slackening.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 2
There's a paradox at the heart of Brexit.

Leaving the EU saves the UK government our membership fee.

It costs individuals and companies much much more than that saved fee. But they're bearing the cost in a distributed way. (Less trade, higher prices, less choice of work etc.)
So the UK government's balance sheet improves by the value of the EU membership fee that's no longer being paid.

But every single one of us and the organisations we work for are effectively being stealth-taxed by Brexit much more than the saving recorded by the UK government.
The UK government can semi-truthfully say "there's more money for us to spend after Brexit" (though the amounts it quotes are wholly fanciful, and don't account for its own extra costs because of Brexit).

And yet as a nation we're still MUCH poorer as a result.
Read 7 tweets

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