FYI, as soon as we pass Brexit Day (currently 29 March 2019, 11pm UK time) we're OUT of the EU. And once we're out, Brexit is irreversible. Also, we will have lost all our treaties.
1) During a transition period, we're already out.
2) During a backstop period, we're already out.
So while both an Article 50 extension and a longer transition period would give us more time to negotiate our future relationships with the EU and other countries, ONLY the A50 extension keeps us inside the EU. By TP time it's too late. We're gone, finito, game over!
Now, the transition period or backstopped period may shield us from the worst immediate effects of leaving the EU, but the cliff edge doesn't go away, it just moves. We still have no treaties and no trade agreements left. We just have longer to renegotiate everything.
And the consequences of losing all those treaties are, frankly, horrific. See the thread below for full details...

So if you're fighting to stop Brexit, there are two and only two options:
A) Stop Brexit in some way before Brexit Day
B) Extend the Article 50 period, then stop Brexit in some way before we get to the end of the extended Article 50 period (i.e. the new Brexit Day)
Added: some media outlets (and MPs) are pretty “hazy” about the above. Whether by omission, disinterest, lack of knowledge or deliberately, who knows? But muddying the waters (even inadvertently) clearly helps the cause of Leave by lessening the perceived urgency to stop Brexit.

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More from @uk_domain_names

Feb 6
Before Brexit...
- EU Trade: super easy.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

Since Brexit...
- EU Trade: hard.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

The difficulty gap may have "narrowed", but not in a way that benefits businesses at all. Trade is on average harder than before Brexit.
Does it encourage firms to consider trading more outside the EU?

Maybe - but only because they'll have a lousy experience everywhere.

It's like raising the price of apples from £10 to £20, keeping pears at £20. Sells more pears? Maybe. But overall, consumers end up paying more.
A smart country would have tried to figure out how to make hard trade with the rest of the world easier.

A dumb country decided instead to make super easy trade with the EU as hard as trade with the rest of the world.

Welcome to Brexit Britain, where brain cells come to die.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Kirstie Allsopp (bought 1st property age 21) claims young people should fritter less to get on the housing ladder.

HOWEVER...

Average House Price (Nationwide)
- 1992: £50,168
- 2021: £253,113

BOE Inflation Calculator
£50,168 in 1992 = £110,472.43 in 2021

Aha! Penny drops.
Another way of looking at it...

Kirstie Allsopp said her job paid £11,500 a year at the time she bought her first property.

That would be £25,323.57 in 2021 money.

£50,168 is the equivalent of 4.36x her 1992 salary.

But £253,113 is 9.99x her nominal 2021 equivalent salary.
Simply put, a given house is more than twice as unaffordable today (everything else being equal) than in 1992.

Quite amazing that someone who has lived and breathed the property sector for decades seems oblivious to the above differential.

It's hardly rocket science.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
The Brexit effect, hurting a business badly.

(Problem is EU students can no longer travel on ID cards because the UK now requires passports, but kids don't need passports because they can go all over the EU on IDs. Catch-22.)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
Look at the scam in this Treasury press release.

They've called the £200 loan towards energy bills a rebate. It *isn't* a rebate because consumers must repay it in 5 instalments.

Then in the next paragraph there's a council tax rebate that *is* a rebate.
gov.uk/government/new…
It's also referred to as a discount.

Can you imagine if Tesco or Amazon applied the same logic?

We'll give you £20 off your shopping now, but you'll owe us 5 legally binding payments of £4.

You'd be livid if they tried to claim that represented a discount.

It's a 0% APR loan.
And here's the really devious part: the Tories are buying voter goodwill now using money that will largely need repaying after the next GE.

So if Labour win, they'll be left with the ticking time-bomb of Tory debts, and a legally binding obligation for *consumers* to repay them.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
According to the Daily Mail, the Tories have indicated they plan to plunge us all into the dark on the pandemic in April by giving up publishing daily stats.

This on a day that saw more than 500 deaths announced.

Could they gaslight us any harder? Genuinely hard to think how. Image
The whole article is grim. Apparently Boris Johnson plans to bin every single protective measure on March 24, including the requirement to self-isolate if you test positive.

How can the several million extremely vulnerable people ever be safe after that?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
The excuse given is that it's becoming "like the flu" and we don't shut down the whole country over that.

A) Covid killed more people in 2 years than flu did in the last decade.

B) Flu is very seasonal. We've had a high covid death rate since August, with no sign of slackening.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 2
There's a paradox at the heart of Brexit.

Leaving the EU saves the UK government our membership fee.

It costs individuals and companies much much more than that saved fee. But they're bearing the cost in a distributed way. (Less trade, higher prices, less choice of work etc.)
So the UK government's balance sheet improves by the value of the EU membership fee that's no longer being paid.

But every single one of us and the organisations we work for are effectively being stealth-taxed by Brexit much more than the saving recorded by the UK government.
The UK government can semi-truthfully say "there's more money for us to spend after Brexit" (though the amounts it quotes are wholly fanciful, and don't account for its own extra costs because of Brexit).

And yet as a nation we're still MUCH poorer as a result.
Read 7 tweets

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