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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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Oct 21, 2018 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 1/13
The car industry produced 1.75 million vehicles in the UK in 2017, contributing £15.2 billion to the economy, and employing 162,000 people. Brexit will hit it like an asteroid strike. Don't take my word for it! Read on...
researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 2/13
Nissan, "which built nearly one in three of Britain’s 1.67 million new cars last year at its Sunderland plant, warned this month that a no-deal Brexit would have 'serious implications' for British industry."
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 3/13
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimates increased costs of £5 billion, or £2,700 per UK-made car sold in the EU. Cost of EU-made car bought in the UK will rise by £1,500.
autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/10467…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 4/13
Ralf Speth, the boss of Jaguar Landrover, warns of plant closures and the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. "Companies will disappear, plants will be closed. There’s no way to survive a hard Brexit for many industries."
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 5/13
"Aston Martin Chief Executive Officer Andy Palmer said that Brexit is 'a disaster for the industry on both sides of the Channel if there is no negotiated exit.'"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 6/13
"But in its IPO prospectus, Aston warned it could face a “significant adverse effect” on sales and profitability if the 18 percent of sales it makes into the EU are hit by restrictions."
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ast…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 7/13
Akio Toyoda, Toyota Chairman: "If no withdrawal agreement is reached and the transition period through December 2020 is consequently not implemented, corporate activities and consumers will be adversely affected"
jama-english.jp/release/commen…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 8/13
"Bentley CEO Wolfgang Dürheimer has emphasised the need for Britain to secure a tariff-free trade deal with Europe, stating that a 'worst case scenario' could force the company to move to continental Europe."
autocar.co.uk/car-news/indus…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 9/13
Steven Armstrong, Ford's European boss, "told the BBC that a no-deal outcome would 'force us to think about what our future investment strategy for the UK would be'". He also warned about negatives of trading on WTO terms.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 10/13
Honda Europe Senior VP warned that no-deal Brexit will cost company tens of millions of pounds. "In terms of administration, we'd probably be looking at something like sixty odd thousand additional bits of documentation"
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 11/13
CLEPA (carmaker supplier's association) President warns on Brexit: "If we are continuing to be taken hostage by this situation, the flourishing UK auto industry could come back to the situation it was at 20-25 years ago"
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 12/13
BMW is closing its Mini car plant for a month around Brexit Day to guard against uncertainty and supply chain disruptions.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
BREXIT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY 13/13
In conclusion, if you're in denial, you're saying: "The bosses of ALL the UK's major car manufacturers, their suppliers, and the various trade lobbies and associations all have no clue what they are talking about, because I know better." Absurd!
If you found this thread interesting and believe it deserves a wider airing, please share it. And if you have friends or family in with the car industry, talk to them. If there's going to be an economic shock, better to be prepared than to have it come out of the blue. Thank you!

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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 6
Before Brexit...
- EU Trade: super easy.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

Since Brexit...
- EU Trade: hard.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

The difficulty gap may have "narrowed", but not in a way that benefits businesses at all. Trade is on average harder than before Brexit.
Does it encourage firms to consider trading more outside the EU?

Maybe - but only because they'll have a lousy experience everywhere.

It's like raising the price of apples from £10 to £20, keeping pears at £20. Sells more pears? Maybe. But overall, consumers end up paying more.
A smart country would have tried to figure out how to make hard trade with the rest of the world easier.

A dumb country decided instead to make super easy trade with the EU as hard as trade with the rest of the world.

Welcome to Brexit Britain, where brain cells come to die.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 6
Kirstie Allsopp (bought 1st property age 21) claims young people should fritter less to get on the housing ladder.

HOWEVER...

Average House Price (Nationwide)
- 1992: £50,168
- 2021: £253,113

BOE Inflation Calculator
£50,168 in 1992 = £110,472.43 in 2021

Aha! Penny drops.
Another way of looking at it...

Kirstie Allsopp said her job paid £11,500 a year at the time she bought her first property.

That would be £25,323.57 in 2021 money.

£50,168 is the equivalent of 4.36x her 1992 salary.

But £253,113 is 9.99x her nominal 2021 equivalent salary.
Simply put, a given house is more than twice as unaffordable today (everything else being equal) than in 1992.

Quite amazing that someone who has lived and breathed the property sector for decades seems oblivious to the above differential.

It's hardly rocket science.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 4
The Brexit effect, hurting a business badly.

(Problem is EU students can no longer travel on ID cards because the UK now requires passports, but kids don't need passports because they can go all over the EU on IDs. Catch-22.)
Same problem, different business...
Same problem, different business...
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 3
Look at the scam in this Treasury press release.

They've called the £200 loan towards energy bills a rebate. It *isn't* a rebate because consumers must repay it in 5 instalments.

Then in the next paragraph there's a council tax rebate that *is* a rebate.
gov.uk/government/new…
It's also referred to as a discount.

Can you imagine if Tesco or Amazon applied the same logic?

We'll give you £20 off your shopping now, but you'll owe us 5 legally binding payments of £4.

You'd be livid if they tried to claim that represented a discount.

It's a 0% APR loan.
And here's the really devious part: the Tories are buying voter goodwill now using money that will largely need repaying after the next GE.

So if Labour win, they'll be left with the ticking time-bomb of Tory debts, and a legally binding obligation for *consumers* to repay them.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 2
According to the Daily Mail, the Tories have indicated they plan to plunge us all into the dark on the pandemic in April by giving up publishing daily stats.

This on a day that saw more than 500 deaths announced.

Could they gaslight us any harder? Genuinely hard to think how. Image
The whole article is grim. Apparently Boris Johnson plans to bin every single protective measure on March 24, including the requirement to self-isolate if you test positive.

How can the several million extremely vulnerable people ever be safe after that?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
The excuse given is that it's becoming "like the flu" and we don't shut down the whole country over that.

A) Covid killed more people in 2 years than flu did in the last decade.

B) Flu is very seasonal. We've had a high covid death rate since August, with no sign of slackening.
Read 6 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 2
There's a paradox at the heart of Brexit.

Leaving the EU saves the UK government our membership fee.

It costs individuals and companies much much more than that saved fee. But they're bearing the cost in a distributed way. (Less trade, higher prices, less choice of work etc.)
So the UK government's balance sheet improves by the value of the EU membership fee that's no longer being paid.

But every single one of us and the organisations we work for are effectively being stealth-taxed by Brexit much more than the saving recorded by the UK government.
The UK government can semi-truthfully say "there's more money for us to spend after Brexit" (though the amounts it quotes are wholly fanciful, and don't account for its own extra costs because of Brexit).

And yet as a nation we're still MUCH poorer as a result.
Read 7 tweets

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