Don Moynihan Profile picture
Oct 26, 2018 15 tweets 4 min read
Should not have to point out why its irresponsible to traffic in conspiracy theories, but there seems to be some confusion about this, so here we go. 1/
To treat every possibility as equally worthy of attention is to present them as equally plausible realities. They are not, and doing so legitimates a worldview where the conspiratorial outcome is used by motivated reasoners to defend actions they cannot otherwise defend. 2/
In a rational political world, people who trafficked in lies would face some sort of penalty, and citizens would update their beliefs once conspiracies were debunked. That is not the world we live in. 3/
We know from social psychology that framing alters how people process evidence, and repetition makes people open to lies. Framing a conspiracy theory as worthy of investigation, and repeating it without debunking it is effectively spreading the conspiracy theory. 4/
An obvious example is birtherism. Trump was mostly careful to not state with certainty that Obama was Kenyan or a Muslim; he was just “asking the question”, demanding evidence to refute a conspiracy that was built on the belief that the President was illegitimate 5/
What was the end result of birtherism? Trump hastily announced he believed Obama was born in the US, but only after he had used a conspiracy theory to harvest a political support that had hitherto eluded him, and which has remained loyal. 6/
In a system where truth and accountability mattered, Trump would have been punished for promoting the conspiracy, and people would have adjusted their beliefs. Instead, he was rewarded, and a large number of people still believe the conspiracy. 7/
thehill.com/blogs/ballot-b…
Claiming a “false flag” is an especially pernicious form on conspiracy. It fosters a distrust of whatever the final account of the event is – a trademark of false flag beliefs is that the authorities may be involved. It encourages some people to act on those beliefs. 8/
Whatever the outcome of the investigation of the mail bombs, people of a conspiratorial bent will take it as proof of their prior beliefs. 9/
These conspiracy theories matter. They are the reason why the parents of Sandyhook have been harassed by people who believe they are actors. They are why a man turned up with a gun at pizza restaurant. 10/
America has a problem with political violence. It is not symmetrical, it is not both sides. And some of it is driven by conspiratorial beliefs – deep state, red pill nonsense that defines the fringes of the far right. 11/ splcenter.org/20180205/alt-r…
People who should know better are all to willing to entertain batshit ideas. In doing so, they legitimate them. Shrugging your shoulders and saying “I was only asking the question” is an evasion of responsibility 12/
People are free to say what they want. They are not free to avoid social penalties for their speech. Hiding behind “asking the question” is to treat as equally valid the pronouncements of Alex Jones and the parents of Sandyhook victims. 13/
Sure, its provocative to entertain conspiracy theories. But what type of intellectual worldview values provocation over taking responsibility for the effects of their words? Alex Jones in a tweed jacket is still Alex Jones 14/
Update with thread of what we know about the alleged bomber, who himself was a fan of false flag theories 17/

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More from @donmoyn

Feb 19
Even by the very degraded standards of Wisconsin democracy this is truly extraordinary jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
We are well past the point of saying “uh-oh, democracy is in trouble.” Conspiracy nuts are trying to use state power to imprison public officials for resisting their efforts to overturn elections.
And it’s a local story as opposed to a national scandal. jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
It’s no exaggeration to say that the people who fought to defend American democracy in 2020 face greater personal threat and legal jeopardy than the people who sought to destroy it. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-year-on-th…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
The University of Texas faculty called for respecting academic freedom and in response the Lt Governor has called for ending tenure protections and firing faculty who teach in areas he dislikes.
This is true, but also entirely opposite to the way that Patrick believes and wants to see.

In the meantime, faculty at privates and blue state institutions are emailing those UT faculty they always wanted to recruit. Net effect will be to weaken higher Ed in Texas.
When Scott Walker messed with tenure in WI a bunch of talented faculty started heading for the door. Most of them did not feel personally vulnerable but did not see a long-term commitment to protecting higher Ed in the state. Same will happen in Texas.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 18
There is a debate about why economists are paid a premium within social science.
One market-based response is that economists are scarce relative to demand (see below). But since economists control the supply of economists (through grad admissions) what does that tell us?
Maybe economists are better negotiators. This might be true at the margin, but in most places there are broad disciplinary bands. If you are a sociologist getting $80K & 2/2 load, you can try asking for $160K 1/1 load your peer in the Econ dept is getting, but it won't work.
Maybe economists are just smarter. I guess that depends on the criteria you use to evaluate "smart." But based on those prioritized by Econ, the academics in stats and math should be paid more. But they are not. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Great piece about the challenge that administrative burdens pose.

It's not just a technocratic problem, its about the kind of government we want to have, and how we want to be treated by that government.

Hassles, or help? nytimes.com/2022/02/18/opi…
This piece quotes some of the smartest people I know about how to make government work (full disclosure, I married one of them).
Lets start with @pamela_herd
Nodding along to @ElizabethLinos here. (Noting she has been promoted to "economist" - congrats!)
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17
This is incredible. Second-most powerful politician in Texas sent a deceptive mass mailer giving bad voter registration information to the public, putting their votes at risk texastribune.org/2022/02/17/tex…
New Texas voting laws are already creating confusion about vote-by-mail, leading to 25-40% of ballots being rejected in some counties. Elected officials should be helping to reduce this confusion. Patrick is making it worse. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-to-think…
Dan Patrick pushed Trump's fraud narrative. Which has reduced trust in elections. Patrick has used that distrust to then justify misleading voters into sending their request for ballots to *the wrong office.* Absolute contempt for the public.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 17
Functional governments do allow radical actors to routinely veto leadership positions
For better or worse, the US system of government depends on political appointees to lead public organizations. Hawley, Cotton and Cruz are serial offenders when it comes to blocking qualified appointees for their pet reasons…or for no reason at all
Hard to top the time that Cotton blocked Obama's nominee to Ambassador to Barbados for reasons that had nothing to do with her. After more than 800 days waiting for a hearing, she died waiting. Image
Read 7 tweets

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