Thread by @andreasklinger

Tiny useless future predictions…

(a collection thread of strong believes loosely cared 🤷‍♀️)

Doing basic exercise helps knowledge workers being creative:

My assumption is that in the next ~5y startups will have small exercise tools embedded in their normal office layout. (eg monkeybars in the waiting space in front of a toilet)

Chinese will do it first. SV will copy.

Costs of living gets more and more expensive. Networks more and more important.

Next ~5y "invite only communes" will have a renaissance in high cost cities (NYC, HK, SF, etc). They will require application letters. Costly services will handle the backend, cleaning, admin, etc.

Lower budgets and "focus on instagrammability" will shift the default from "big fat wedding" to "small romantic getaway"

Huge wedding rooms will be replaced by small cliffs with flower arcs that look good from one side.

Broke instagram influencers will start this.

Global and national markets polarize to a few strong winners thanks to ecommerce.

A lot of businesses don't make sense apart of "provide a living for its people" (a weird sentence to write i know)

Cooperatives will have a comeback. They will have a different branding though.

Politics will be considered a part of the entertainment industry.

Kayfabe will be a term we will hear too often (starting 2019).

Struggle porn will become a billion dollar industry.

It will make a lot of people very rich, who btw won't have to struggle for it much. But kayfabe will make it ok.

Social media will loose the sense of authenticity.

Lobbying, astroturfing, paid content, online propaganda will become more, much more. People less trust opinion leaders.

Traditional News can't fill that void
Crowdsourced but transparently expertcurated news sites will fill it

We will switch in our pov from focusing on "right vs left" to "authoritarian vs libertarian"

Authoritarian populism will fight against libertarian populism.

Authoritarian populism will get a lot more but ultimately libertarian will win because authoritarian populism won't care to keep promises and can't locally optimize. (centralized vs decentralized)

Decentralized networks handled via crypto will become the backend for many markets. Consumer applications will struggle finding spots outside of anonymity and failed markets.

US, Latam and Europe will be grouped as ROW (rest of world) for many of the next big (asian) startups.

The rise of authoritarian populism is a logical result of economic crisis

Humans perceive reality as relative
Relative to your past self past or to others
When things go up we are open & optimistic about society

When down => anger, fear and envy
Ideal for authoritarian populism

We consider people in charge of economic crashes to be liable for economic damages, ignoring the by far bigger societal ones

There will be a wave of "good news" startups that are somewhere between buzzfeed and actual news.

They focus on "the good" and in case something is actually bad on "the helpers" or the "uplifting stories"

Think boredpanda but with actual current topics and not just cute cats 🐈

re crisis -> populism from above

@zaoyang framed this perfectly:

https://twitter.com/zaoyang/status/1059546349258059777

Heat, Cold, Breath, Fast

My prediction for the california's 2019 health hype

In 2019/2020 a full fletched terrorist group will start out as a troll joke, but then get momentum by people who take/want it for real.

Based on a dream today:
A hip fashion company (think kanyewest meets fashion)
Several dozen teenagers in a white room on a small white podium, new products around, VR glasses on, all crash one game together, shout the new products, RL/VR audio feedback, framed as performance art

"hip" health trends of 2019:

- exposure: heat + cold (showers, ice, sauna, steam)
- diet: intermittent fasting + macros counting
- additionally: hormone + blood tests
- breathing exercises + meditation
- training: "natural floor movements/gymnastics" + heavy weights