HRouge Profile picture
Nov 8, 2018 30 tweets 10 min read Read on X
seems popular today. You'll note marketing costs have risen 32% year on year. Image
..$INS seems popular today. You'll note it hasn't been much affected by the wider market gyrations and that today's volume is 5x the daily average. Looks like someone wants in. Image
I have a feeling that the machines may be unable to comprehend the implications of Intelligent Systems' 8-K today.
Q2 "We can’t take on any more business that’s going to utilize the kind of resources that these two customers are utilizing... Having said that, we have another multibillion-dollar customer that wants to get live pretty quickly, so we’ve had to delay them until next year"
Q4 Intelligent Systems / Leland Strange Image
The move in Intelligent Systems today - daily volume already through within the first hour, makes me suspect they’re either about to get acquired or that they’ve just bought Moviepass.
Wow.. I can hear jaws dropping at . 2% cash on Apple Card is a category killer. may well look cheap here in hindsight.
*** Caution: acute confirmation bias warning ***

However, if Sallie Mae really wants to get serious, perhaps they ought to hire the guy who runs the credit file at the Bass Pro Shop. Image
"Will you sign up for the Apple Card? You probably will, frankly.. This is the money of the future—instant, invisible, and a little bit innovative—and it’s all nested beneath the beautiful glass screen of your iPhone..."

wired.com/story/why-appl…
Intriguing.

Q1/19 10-Q : "Currently, we expect to use cash in excess of what is required for our current operations for opportunities we believe will expand our CoreCard and FinTech business, although there can be no assurance that appropriate opportunities will arise."
seems popular today.

You'll note there's a Forbes article out today on Apple Card. H/T to @hiddensmallcaps for this and info about credit card issuer size.

Lets assume some of these are duplicate accounts, that some people don't follow through and that some delay. Say 50%? ImageImage
If the above figures are even directionally correct then in terms of order of magnitude, might be looking at north of 30 million accounts - in the US alone - in short order after launch. Image
seemed popular yesterday but then it would, wouldn't it? Image
seems radioactive today.

You'll note from the 10-K, all revenues in 2018 actually came from the US and EU. Image
seems unpopular right now as they gave a conference call yesterday in which they didn’t offer to take a certain boardmember out the back and summarily execute him à la Ceaușescu. Instead, they’ll change the board shortly.

Support my proposal to redomicile co in Pyongyang ImageImage
Intelligent Systems now included in the Russell 2000 Index, the Russell Microcap Index and the broad-market Russell 3000 Index

thechestnutpost.com/news/intellige…
seems popular today, for no reason whatsoever - so I have a question: why don’t shorts in have the courage of your convictions? I didn’t sell a cent. This thing is as fraudulent as it was a week ago, aren’t you? It’s 30% up in a week, so take it down, press them.
Usual seesaw in .

From the proxy, insiders hold 2.2M shares.

Institutions are on 3.25M, including Weitz at 2.27M (since forever)

Leaving ~38% or 3.35M of 8.8M as float, of which 320,000 or 10% traded yesterday - enough for move of 14%.

1.16M short is 34% of that float.
Sooooo.. is making all-time highs today?
Remember folks, only a few days left to submit your names towards the class action lawsuits in on

@AureliusValue
@ResearchGrizzly ImageImage
@AureliusValue @ResearchGrizzly followers on Seeking Alpha have now doubled in just over half a year and as of yesterday the company has debut analyst coverage.

thefly.com/landingPageNew… Image
@AureliusValue @ResearchGrizzly Weitz commentary on fund reducing holding in Image
@AureliusValue @ResearchGrizzly marketing budget falls again Image
opens at 40.47, falls 13.5% to 35.01, then rises 17% to 40.99 and ends the day down 0.64% in total at 40.21. Pure efficient market juju Image
Some points from Q4 call. Image
Image
Interesting from , I hadn't anticipated their involvement in govt stimulus programmes - has more stings to their bow than I knew of Image

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More from @hareng_rouge

Dec 22, 2021
$RADA makes small tactical military radars. The recent sell off hasn't made it cheap but it has begun to bring it closer to GARP territory

It's a rare pure-play on a theme that's perhaps not yet widely appreciated and is hard to access directly but you can see it in the numbers
Here's where it trades on a forward sales multiple against some of the big diversified defence majors - has lost much of the premium and now sits a little off the top end. Brits bottom of the pile.
Same group of majors but here on forward EBITDA multiples and towards the bottom end excluding the UK companies.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 12, 2021
Naive view but I think Hunting #HTG may be on its way back to Covid lows because it's orphaned on the wrong market and there's an information disconnect - if so, my guess is that it's pretty oversold here. Image
The company isn't a pure play but it's good enough to say it's very shale exposed, towards the completion side vs the drilling side of things.

Three year chart to around May 2021: HTG in green vs several US oil services ETFs - as you can see, they trade in lockstep. Image
Same chart but on a 2021 YTD basis and it starts diverging somewhere around mid summer. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
IG Design #IGR was a ten bagger in the 5 years leading up to Covid. An update a fortnight ago dropped the shares by half and erased all the gains in the most recent five years. Knife catching and broken growth this soon is almost always a mistake but IG may be an exception here. ImageImageImage
My basic premise with it is that the accounts are a complicated nightmare (CTRL+f for "adjust" is 232 hits in the last FY report) but most immediately, that this is right now a gross margin story - I think there are grounds to at least consider whether IG can be given a pass here
Unfortunately, it does mean walking through it so grab a.. (just no) so anyway, here's the rough idea: Pre-covid in white, M&A growth darling, 20% gross margins. Forget the op margin for now - I'm stripping out the adjustments that made adjusted whatever go up and to the right Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 5, 2021
Saw a one-line tweet the other day mentioning McColls #MCLS as one of 2 highest conviction names.

I think I see why: there's a metamorphosis happening underneath and reasonable path to PE and FCF multiples between 2-3 plus a growth narrative, all under that lovely grim exterior
Story is that they're shrinking. 1500+ stores 2 years back, to 1050 by the end of FY21

Also changing: culling small newsagent shops to focus towards larger, more profitable grocery-heavy stores. So far, so worthy - but the real interest is the transformation into Morrisons Daily
Company raised recently to accelerate a programme converting 350 stores into these Mini Morrisons. They're at 56 today, will be 350 by end FY22

Cost is £90K per shop, what they call "cash payback" is 2-3 years and so far they're providing pretty immediate LFL sales growth of 25%
Read 12 tweets
Sep 23, 2021
What does Sneller see to get such sudden FOMO for the old zombie that is Iofina #IOF? If you recall the name, it should produce revulsion but a few things have changed and there's a chance it may be about to make some money. ImageImage
IOF produces Iodine in the US via O&G brine. Iodine is a beneficiary of industrial recovery generally and covid specifically - the largest use is used as x-ray contrast which may benefit demand from catch up on delayed hospital treatment.

And because it's 2021, inevitably: Image
Production is trapped on the wrong side of the Pacific: the two major production centres are Japan and Chile - so you have the obvious logistics issues for both and potentially politics for the latter.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 20, 2021
I think it's worth revisiting Aquis #AQX here in light of a couple of data points that have since come out.

There are three main parts to the co: a stock exchange (AQSE); a tech licencing biz and their multilateral trading facility (AQXE) - it's this last one I want to look at.
First is the RNS from earlier this month announcing their MTF (investopedia.com/terms/m/multil…) had achieved 6.2% market share. Across the €53.6B traded on AQXE in July, this came out to €1.7B a day.

Those 6.2% and €1.7B are quite significant numbers and I'll come back to them later Image
In the period since the beginning of 2018 market share has risen from 1.72% to that 6.2% above. Here's how that value traded looks. Image
Read 15 tweets

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