If Boris Johnson became PM again, given the views of many Tory MPs, this is what I'd be tempted to say if I was Keir Starmer or Ed Davey: "The PM is not fit for office. Nor is the Tory Party. We know that many honourable Tory MPs feel the same way. Now is the time for...' 1/
'... all MPs who put the national interest first to come together & force a General Election. It is a lot to ask Tory MPs to do this but, because this is a national emergency, we are prepared to make a bold & generous offer...' 2/
'We say to those Tory MPs with majorities bigger than [10,000], who are motivated by national interest & not just saving their seat, that if they vote with us in supporting a GE, we will not stand against them in their seats if they run as independents.' 3/
The people who dismissed the risks of Truss's fiscal policy causing a market meltdown were largely the same people who dismissed the economic risks of a No Deal Brexit. Not a coincidence.
The Conservative Party is lost in a fantasy world no longer able to comprehend reality. Unless it makes a rapid recovery, it will continue to be a danger to itself and the country as a whole - @NewStatesman. newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…
First, & most obviously, tax cuts will be badly targeted. The poor don’t pay income tax or NICs & would benefit least in cash terms from a VAT cut. If we’re borrowing to protect living standards (which we shd only do in exceptional circumstances) it shd be to help the poorest. /2
Second, if we’re worried about the long term sustainability of the public finances, help needs to be temporary & therefore reversible. One off handouts are much easier to reverse than tax cuts. It’ll be very difficult for a Tory Govt to put up taxes when energy prices fall. /3
If senior officials fail to challenge the Prime Minister, he will further contaminate the culture of the civil service just as he has contaminated the culture of the Conservative Party. My latest piece for @NewStatesman. newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…
There are some details to this story that should not be overlooked. It is reported that Johnson was 'apoplectic' at reports that Gray was going to criticise him, the No 10 Perm Sec arranged a Johnson/Gray meeting but No 10 briefs that Gray instigated it.
Sue Gray should've been protected from any such meeting (where the PM reportedly questioned the need to publish her report). Nor should the No 10 press office have briefed that Gray instigated the meeting when senior officials knew this was untrue.
Here's how being a Minister works when you have to make a policy decision. You get a written submission from officials setting out the issue & the possible policy responses with pros & cons & recommendations. Political advisers will also see the submission & feed in thoughts. /1
Assuming that the matter is important and/or complex, you'd hold a meeting with officials & political advisers. This gives you a chance to question officials to make sure you understand the implications of the choices - the likely criticisms, hard cases, boundary issues etc /2
Having gone through this process & concluded that you were in a position to make an informed decision, you'd decide what to do. You won't get every decision right but for every big decision you'll have given it plenty of thought. /3
There are many reasons why Conservative MPs should think that Boris Johnson is unsuitable to be PM. But it’s curious his biggest difficulty with Tory MPs is a policy - putting in place measures to reduce the spread of Omicron - that is popular & right. newstatesman.com/politics/conse…
If there’s an imminent leadership election, candidates will compete with each other as to who can be most sceptical about restrictions, even though the public takes a different view. Almost regardless of the circumstances & scientific advice, a new PM will have their hands tied.
The scale of the PM’s problem with his Parliamentary party over COVID rules will likely depend on what happens with Omicron. If the news is bad, much of the criticism will disappear. If the news is good & it’s much milder, his critics will say he got it wrong & they were right.