Former MP, Minister & left arm spin bowler. Writes columns. Editor ‘The Case for the Centre Right’, published 29 September. All views my own.
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Oct 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
If Boris Johnson became PM again, given the views of many Tory MPs, this is what I'd be tempted to say if I was Keir Starmer or Ed Davey: "The PM is not fit for office. Nor is the Tory Party. We know that many honourable Tory MPs feel the same way. Now is the time for...' 1/
'... all MPs who put the national interest first to come together & force a General Election. It is a lot to ask Tory MPs to do this but, because this is a national emergency, we are prepared to make a bold & generous offer...' 2/
Sep 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The people who dismissed the risks of Truss's fiscal policy causing a market meltdown were largely the same people who dismissed the economic risks of a No Deal Brexit. Not a coincidence.
The Conservative Party is lost in a fantasy world no longer able to comprehend reality. Unless it makes a rapid recovery, it will continue to be a danger to itself and the country as a whole - @NewStatesman. newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…
Aug 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It’s clear that more support is going to be needed beyond what has already been announced. Relying only on tax cuts has a number of problems. /1
First, & most obviously, tax cuts will be badly targeted. The poor don’t pay income tax or NICs & would benefit least in cash terms from a VAT cut. If we’re borrowing to protect living standards (which we shd only do in exceptional circumstances) it shd be to help the poorest. /2
May 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If senior officials fail to challenge the Prime Minister, he will further contaminate the culture of the civil service just as he has contaminated the culture of the Conservative Party. My latest piece for @NewStatesman. newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…
There are some details to this story that should not be overlooked. It is reported that Johnson was 'apoplectic' at reports that Gray was going to criticise him, the No 10 Perm Sec arranged a Johnson/Gray meeting but No 10 briefs that Gray instigated it.
Here's how being a Minister works when you have to make a policy decision. You get a written submission from officials setting out the issue & the possible policy responses with pros & cons & recommendations. Political advisers will also see the submission & feed in thoughts. /1
Assuming that the matter is important and/or complex, you'd hold a meeting with officials & political advisers. This gives you a chance to question officials to make sure you understand the implications of the choices - the likely criticisms, hard cases, boundary issues etc /2
Dec 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There are many reasons why Conservative MPs should think that Boris Johnson is unsuitable to be PM. But it’s curious his biggest difficulty with Tory MPs is a policy - putting in place measures to reduce the spread of Omicron - that is popular & right. newstatesman.com/politics/conse…
If there’s an imminent leadership election, candidates will compete with each other as to who can be most sceptical about restrictions, even though the public takes a different view. Almost regardless of the circumstances & scientific advice, a new PM will have their hands tied.
Nov 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Brexit may have been seen by its advocates as a reaffirmation of Thatcherism, but the reality is that – in giving us a higher taxed, more bureaucratic, less open economy – it is its repudiation. Me for @NewStatesman. newstatesman.com/politics/brexi…
Btw, this is not an endorsement of the “Boris isn’t delivering the right type of free market Brexit” argument. Brexit was always going to put up trade barriers, increase bureaucracy on businesses and weaken the public finances (with tax rises the most likely response).
Dec 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We've been told many times that Brexit was about 'sovereignty'. The ERG has concluded that the Trade & Cooperation Agreement delivers sovereignty because Parliament can choose to break its obligations under the TCA & the UK can give notice of termination of the agreement. 1/2
But as the ex-Head of the Government Legal Service points out, these tests are compatible with membership of the EU.
After all the country has gone through in the last 5 years, under the tests the ERG are using, it turns out we were always sovereign. 2/2
Two big issues of 2020 have been COVID and Brexit. Occasionally they have touched but generally they have been separate. But now, like a TV series finale, the plots are brought together. Sadly, a common thread runs through the Govt's approach to both issues - optimism bias. /1
This thread from @Jack_Blanchard_ runs through various promises made to see off the virus. All wishful thinking. Suggesting we could have a near normal Christmas just built up expectations that were bound to be dashed. /2
My @ConHome piece on the Brexit talks. I've long thought that the risk of no deal was under-priced because the concessions necessary to get a deal would be politically risky for Boris Johnson. But at this point a deal is more likely than not. /1 conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/…
Johnson has clearly moved on LPF (see Lord Frost's July tweet) . Obvious nonsense to argue that the threat of tariffs & quotas in future is an economic risk we cannot accept but tariffs & quotas now would be 'wonderful' & 'we'd prosper mightily'. /2
A thought or two on the vaccine roll out.
One piece of very good news is that we don’t have to vaccinate that many people before the deaths start coming down. As @harrytlambert suggests, vaccinate 75+s (9% of the population) & fatalities cut by 71%. /1
newstatesman.com/science-tech/c…
We might get there quite quickly & lots will argue that we should lift all the restrictions asap. But the vaccine won’t have 100% efficacy – so some of the vaccinated may still die - & although the IFR will be low for the rest, if many get it a fair few will die. /2
Nov 14, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Not sure anyone can be certain what the impact of Cummings' departure will have on the Brexit negotiations. Removes a hardliner from No 10 but also leaves him free to cry 'betrayal' if the PM compromises.
Worth asking, what'll be the PM's message if he hasn't got a deal? /1
In a no deal situation there'll be plenty of disruption (it'll be bad enough with a deal) & an immediate economic hit. Brexit will become a big issue & there'll be plenty of blame to be allocated. The old Remain/Leave divide will return (even if the names will be outdated) /2
Sep 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We had the “day 1 the German carmakers will demand a deal” stage. Then the “if they know we’d walk away, we’ll get what we want” stage. We’re still in “they’ll cave in the last few days” stage but prepare for “if we just hold our nerve, we’ll get what we want next year” stage.
At each stage, there is the confident assertion that the absence of an FTA will hurt the EU more than it will hurt the UK, that the EU’s position (‘protecting the integrity of the Single Market’) misunderstands the EU’s best interests & that the EU is bluffing.
Sep 17, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A very good and pithy summary of why the Northern Ireland border has been so problematic when determining our post-Brexit relationship with the EU.
In the end, the UK has to choose - continued alignment with the EU (when we don’t have a say on the rules) OR checks on goods from GB to NI or checks on trade between NI and RoI. None of those options are great but this is an inescapable consequence of Brexit.
Sep 13, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Brandon Lewis said of the Internal Market Bill “this does break international law”. Not “it creates the potential to break international law” or “we might break it in an emergency but we’re not yet breaking it”. He said “this does break international law”.
If taking the power to override a treaty is in itself a breach of international law (which is implicit in what Brandon Lewis said), additional safeguards on the exercise of any such power (such as requiring a Commons vote) doesn’t stop it being a breach of international law.
Sep 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I fear this is a realistic assessment of the likelihood of a UK/EU deal from the well-placed @JGForsyth. The EU has moved on state aid but the UK has not reciprocated. More likely than not that we leave without a deal. thetimes.co.uk/article/johnso…
The thinking is that we need flexibility over state aid not to support existing industries like car-manufacturing but to build are own tech sector.
But without a robust state aid regime how does the Government resist lots of industries demanding subsidies? And...
Aug 23, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting piece by @ShippersUnbound on the attitude inside No 10 to a no deal Brexit. Rings true and highlights the reality that the risk of a no deal Brexit is under-priced. thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-…
Some have argued that the Government is more likely to agree to a deal because they’re vulnerable to the accusation that not getting a deal would constitute incompetence. But I think most of their supporters will buy the argument that it’s the EU’s fault.
Aug 1, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
My latest piece on @ConHome on state aid, Brexit and the changing nature of the Conservative Party. To get a deal with the EU, at the very least the UK will need a robust & independent state aid regime. But is that what the red wall voters will want? /1 conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/…
As @pmdfoster reported this week, Dominic Cummings is leading the push for a minimalist state aid regime, saying once you have left the EU “you should just do whatever you want”. And red wall voters would favour an interventionist approach. /2 ft.com/content/e29430…
Jul 13, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Extraordinary attack on PM's 'oven-ready' deal.
'..shackling the country to a poison pill'.
WA & PD 'remains to contaminate our opportunities'.
The handle of the 'exit door from the EU... smeared with the EU diplomatic equivalent of Novichok'.
And the Germans who, after WWII, were 'given free money to regenerate and paid limited reparations for the most savage war it could wage'.
On that theme, 'we are about to find out if Johnson is more Churchill or Halifax'.
Jul 11, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Why, eventually, taxes are going to have to rise. And the Chancellor will need to set out his plans in the Autumn Budget. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
The issue is not so much the short term, one off costs of Covid-19 but the need to ensure that debt as a percentage of GDP doesn’t keep growing post crisis. Can’t be certain what’ll be needed to stop that happening but a £40bn fiscal gap looks a reasonable estimate.
Jul 7, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A well-argued response to my recent pessimistic piece about the future direction of the Conservative Party. @DLidington is usually right, so a few thoughts on his article. /1
First, he is right to say that the Government's ambition to "level up" opportunities available to people living in parts of the country that feel left behind is to be supported. It is in the best traditions of One Nation Conservatism. /2
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