Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Jan 3, 2019 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Here’s a piece that David Romer and I just wrote for the latest CSWEP newsletter, which we think contains some useful insights for those seeking to make economics a more diverse place.

Begins on p.7, here: aeaweb.org/content/file?i…

Lemme expand a bit on what we found...
When we took over as editors of the Brookings Papers, we made a conscious decision to try to include more women economists on the program. You can think of this as something of an experiment, and so our note is our attempt to report on the results.
By one measure, we succeeded. The number of women who published in the @BrookingsEcon Papers more than doubled, to a share that somewhat exceeds the share of women in “top twenty” economics departments.
I know you love diff-in-diffs, so Everyone loves diffs-in-diffs, so the it’s worth comparing the share of women writing for #BPEA both before and after our experiment, and relative to comparable conference and journals.

A chart is worth a thousand words: Image
The most important thing that helped, I think, was just trying to be gender aware. Trying to avoid conscious discrimination under the presumption that implicit bias only afflicts the judgment of others is a recipe for gross gender imbalance.
Let’s be concrete. In our experience, the following practices helped:
- We gave ourselves quantitative guidelines
- We interpreted these as a floor, not a target
- We pushed each other to do better
- We broadened the set of fields we would publish
- We had institutional support
Other well-intentioned changes didn’t move the needle:
- Our more formally structured call for papers didn’t lead to a bunch more submissions from women
- Recruiting the top women in the profession simply supported work that was already going to get published
But the bigger picture is that we failed. The relevant question is whether *at the margin* the marginal female participant contributed more than the marginal man. In our judgment, the answer was a resounding yes. Image
“We had thought we were tilting the scale toward women; the reality is, we had simply put a thumb rather than a fist on the scale for men.”

That was a helluva lesson for us to learn. And we’re sure that it has implications for other efforts to improve gender equity.
We wish that we could report on our efforts to improve the underrepresentation of African-Americans and other marginalized voices. But the underrepresentation of some groups is so severe that in reality, we would be reporting anecdotes disguised as data.
What I learned: Even when you think you’re working as hard as you can to redress imbalances, it’s quite possible that you’re still not doing enough. [/fin]
Also, my friend Karen Pence (not that Karen Pence, the economist, Karen Pence...) has a wonderful article with Daniel Covitz, outlining the Fed’s efforts to create a more diverse and inclusive workforce.

See p.4, here: aeaweb.org/content/file?i…

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More from @JustinWolfers

Nov 4
This counter-response essentially says that any form of weighting in survey research is herding. If so, I love herding!

He's right about the motivation: All weighting is done to ensure that you don't get crazy results. But that's a feature of a good poll, not a bug!
After all: Is there a principled difference between weighting on age (to ensure that your sample includes youngs and olds) and weighting on past vote (to ensure you get folks from across the political spectrum)?
Both age and past vote are:
- Predetermined (before this poll)
- Non-manipulable
- Though self-reported
- And we have good population estimates to weight them to.

What principle would make one of these a legitimate survey design weight and the other "herding"?
Read 9 tweets
Nov 4
Lately @NateSilver has been arguing that pollsters are "herding" —tweaking or hiding their results to avoid publishing outliers.

I don't know any (reputable) pollsters who do this.

And I think the problem here is Nate making a simple math/stats error 🧵 Image
Let's explore binomial distributions and the standard errors of weighted samples.

TL, DR: Weighting across groups with different voting patterns should change how you calculate confidence intervals.

Fail to do so, and you'll falsely accuse pollsters of herding.
First, what @NateSilver538 does:

In a “vanilla” poll—a simple random sample—the standard error of an estimate of a candidate’s vote share, p, in a two horse race is √[p(1-p)/n].

This is the perspective that animates Nate's analysis of "herding". Image
Read 34 tweets
Oct 24
Focusing for a moment on the POLICIES at play.

Voters were asked whether they supported 100 different policies, but weren't told whether the policy was from Trump or Harris.

Nearly all of Harris' policies got majority support from the public, and... 🧵 Image
Far fewer of Trump's policy proposals garnered majority support, and almost none were broadly popular (say, >75% support). Image
Most undecided voters like most of Harris' policies (left graph).

Most undecided voters dislike most of Trumps policies (right graph). Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13
Senator, I think it's worth acknowledging that violent crime actually has falllen, and indeed it is lower today than it has been for decades. Image
This decline in violent crime is evident in not just the FBI reports, but also an independent survey by the BJS. Image
If you don't trust data from G-men, the decline in homicide rates the FBI reports is also evident in a count of death certificates in which coroners cute homicide as the cause of death. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 4
Wowza: HUGE jobs report.

September payrolls grew +254k, well above expectations.

August payrolls revised up +17k to +159k, and July revised up +55k to +144k.

Unemployment fell to 4.1%

This economic expansion that is motoring along.
Honestly, there's not much to say here other than that fears the job market had slowed turned out to be a statistical illusion due to incomplete data.

Over the past three months, payrolls is motoring along at +186k per month, on average, which is pretty much where you want it.
(The conspiracy theories on revisions to economic numbers confuse me, and I can't remember whether numbers getting revised up to look good is evidence of a conspiracy, or numbers later get revised down is evidence of an initial conspiracy that falls apart.)
Read 12 tweets
Oct 2
Senator, you're misleading folks again. I just read the CBO report you recommend. It actually says that an immigration surge boosts federal revenues quite dramatically, and has only a small effect on mandatory spending and interest.
Image
The CBO study @JDVance cites analyzes how immigration improves the *federal* budget.

Yet he pulls a misleading quote, talking about the effects of *state and local* budgets and ignoring the (likely larger) federal govt impacts.

Here's the CBO directly saying this isn't okay: Image
Of course, you might ask: How could @JDVance have known that this was a study of *federal* budgets, not of what's happening to *state and local* budgets?

Well, the title yields a vital clue. Image
Read 5 tweets

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