I think this critique is exactly right, so lemme try to put Harris's big econ speech in North Carolina in context next to Trump's big econ speech in North Carolina a couple of days ago...

https://x.com/BlueStTrav/status/1824556412342767848

1. Harris's econ speech was about the economy. Trump's econ speech barely mentioned the economy. Indeed, he had to keep reminding himself that he was meant to talk econ. He was rambling, incoherent, and said almost nothing recognizable as econ.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1823904506494812539

Lemme 'splain... There's two stories about the economy, and two sets of storytellers. There's the view from Wall Street, and the reality on Main Street. Financial markets tell you about the former, and economists are about the latter. Imma give you the economist's version. And the truth is, when you dig into the economic numbers, the current economy is gloriously, splendidly, brilliantly... boring. This is what an economy that's returning to a healthy normal looks like.

I don't hate this policy as much as I thought I would bc this isn't traditional rent control.

Think of it as macro policy—setting a nominal anchor when the Fed's target isn't working—rather than as micro policy setting the relative price of housing.

The details really matter.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1812918420423254480

The proposed controls appear not to apply to new construction. And so they still allow the price signal to provide an incentive for new construction.

Blunting price signal is bad — to the extent that it affects those at the margin. But this policy is mostly infra-marginal.

This striking pattern of Trump under-performing his poll numbers continues. According to 538, Trump was meant to win:
- Massachusetts by 37 (NYT says he's up by 23)
- Tennessee by 69 (he's up 57)
- Texas by 64 (he's up 56)
- Virginia by 49 (he's up by 29)
The exception:
- North Carolina by 46 (he's up 51) Plus in those states with more sparse polling there's no 538 average. But the final Trump-Haley poll suggested Trump would win:
- Alabama by 75 (he's up 68)
- Oklahoma by 77 (he's up 66)
- Maine 58 by (he's up 47)
- Minnesota by 64 (he's up 41)
- Utah by 27 (he's up 14)

Are we there yet?

Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target.

This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation. Core PCE inflation over the past year was 3.2%, but that tells us a lot about what was happening in late 2022.

Over the past 6 months, inflation was 1.9%; over the prior 6 months it was 4.5%. As those high rates "fall out" of the 12 month window, year-ended inflation will fall.

There's no question people are telling pollsters they're miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can't we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls?

Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic [thread] Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they're spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.

Lemme take a moment to fact check this.
(Spoiler: Every single claim is wrong.) 🧵

https://twitter.com/HouseGOP/status/1726240661022622159

Let's start with the claim "uncooked turkey" is 7.2% more expensive. That's actually the CPI for a broader category of "other uncooked poultry" which includes Turkey.

But turkeys? The USDA says the retail price of fresh Hens is down -7.6% and fresh Toms are down -8.1%

An absolutely bonkers example of the bad-news bias (and a failure to take Econ 101) in econ reporting: The @WSJ observes that the price of metals used in electric vehicles are crashing, and somehow infers that it will create shortages and snarl adoption of EV's. The best part: The headline assures us that this is bad for Biden.

Inflation's receding, baby.

Headline inflation was literally zero -- on average, prices were the same in October as September.

Over the year, headline inflation is 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.3%. The decline in headline inflation is partly due to falling gas prices.

Want to know where inflation is going?

You're better off focusing on core inflation (ex food and energy), which was 0.2% last month, and 4.0% over the past year. Again, better than the markets expected.

A steady-as-she-goes strong jobs report.

Payrolls rose +150k, and while unemployment ticked up a little, it remains below 4%.

Revisions subtracted -101k.

And so over the past 3 months, payrolls have averaged +204k, which is still extraordinary for this stage of the cycle. Remember that this month's payrolls number is probably about -30k lower than it otherwise would be, due to the UAW strike. And we expect that to bounce back as an extra +30k next month.

Blockbuster GDP report shows real GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3, blowing even optimistic expectations out of the water.

This economy is going gangbusters, and it's time for the doomers to apologize for being consistently wrong for two years. When the recessionistas were wrong in late 2021, they said it'll be 2022, and the economy kept growing so they said it'll be early 2023, only to see unemployment hit fifty year lows with inflation falling, so we were promised late 2023 and output is growing at nearly 5%.

Monthly core PCE inflation was +0.1% in August, below expectations of +0.2%. It’s 3.9% over the past year, but that misses the real action.

Focus instead on the latest data.

Over the last 3 months it ran at an annualized rate of 2.16%, or AT THE FED’S TARGET. Economists track monthly price data to uncover turning points while politicos/the press focus on year-ended inflation (which is shaped by developments in late ‘22)

=> Econs know that inflation has (mostly) returned to normal, but it’ll take 6 months for public debate to catch up

Core CPI rose only 0.3 percent in August, the third month in a row of low readings.

After the first, it was "that's just one month;" the second was "good news, but not yet a trend." Now three's a trend.

Over the past 3 months, core CPI has risen at an annual rate of 2.4%. Point is, if you take the most recent numbers seriously, core inflation is running at two-point-something percent, which is pretty much back to normal low rates.

I've spent much of the past few weeks plowing through the resources that universities are pushing out to faculty as a response to the rise of generative AI (ie ChatGPT).

Without calling out any institution, I'm utterly pessimistic about the responses I've seen. Few universities are reading the moment correctly. Generative AI ought to lead to a wholesale reinvention of what we teach and how we teach it, not to mention how we assess it.

Instead, there's an admission that change is in the air, quickly followed by an attempt to minimize it

Fitch has downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+.

And I’m mad as hell, because it’s the direct result of a multi-decade campaign of fiscal vandalism and political sabotage by Republicans, and the rest of us are left footing the bill.
fitchratings.com/research/sover… What caused the downgrade in the US credit rating?
❌State of the economy (It’s good)
❌ Changing economic conditions (They’re improving)
❌ Underperforming economic expectations (We’ve outperformed)
✅Political game-playing
Lemme elaborate with a 🧵(can we still call 'em that?)

There's a community note appended here that's simply off point.

Here's the most obvious interpretation of Biden's claim...

"Before the pandemic" = January 2020.
Average hourly earnings deflated by the CPI were $10.98

"Right now" = Latest data: $11.05

=> Real wages are higher.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1680683725460238339

Be careful, because inflation-adjustment puts hourly wages in a different currency, comparing them to prices from another period.

Hourly wages aren't $11'ish; they're well above that ($33.58, in fact).

But $33.58 buys roughly the same as what $11 bought in the early 1980s.

WHOA! Headline CPI rose by only 0.2% in June, and is now down to only 3.0%. That's back to the March '21 level.

More importantly, core CPI rose only 0.2%, and is up 4.8% over the year.

BOTH measures are a good bit below expectations.

Inflation is returning to normal rates. The core CPI print is even a bit better than it looks: It's actually a rise of only 0.16%, which is roughly half what Wall Street was expecting.

Over the past 3 months, core CPI has risen at an annualized rate of 4.1%, down from 5.1% over the prior 3 months.

It's a good solid straight down the middle, this little engine just keeps on chugging along payrolls report.

Payrolls grew +209k, a bit below expectations, but well above "normal" rates. Unemployment is at 3.6%, a tick above its recent fifty-year low. The story of today is definitely a somewhat cooler (though still pretty darn warm) jobs market.

Payrolls revised May down -33k, and April down -77k. So over the past three months, we've had prints of +217k, +306k, and now +209k, for an average rate of +244k.

That's still robust

INFLATION IS CONTINUING TO COOL.

Core inflation was 0.4% in May (meeting expectations), and is 5.3% over the year (down from a peak of 6.6%)

Headline inflation rose 0.1% last month (slightly below consensus) and is up only 4.0% over the year (down from a peak of 8.9%) The year-ended inflation rates (both core and headline) are falling at a pretty rapid clip. But realize, that reflects a lotta what happened a year ago. The sharp rise in prices 13 months ago "fell out" of the 12-month-ended rate, and this explains a lot of what happened.

Holy moly, jobs growth comes in hot again.

Payrolls +339k
Unemployment rate up a tick to 3.7% suggesting a weaker household survey
Revisions are big: +52k for March, +41k for April.

Don't believe the doom-and-gloom talk.

This economy is motoring along. Over the past three months, payrolls have risen by +217k in March, +294k in April, and +339k in May.

Three points:
1. This is a rapid rate of job growth! (Average +283k)
2. The economy is not slowing
3. Recession? What recession? There is literally no chance this is a recession

Biden ate McCarthy's lunch.

There’s a lot less to this than meets the eye.

That trillion in savings? Only the first two years of caps (worth about $200b) are enforceable. The rest is purely an assumption about what Congress will do.

Work requirements? Loosened, on average. Resumption of student loan repayments? It was going to happen anyway.

Cuts in IRS funding? The big cuts aren't in this bill. And even if they later cut $20b that still leaves a $60b boost.

Either Biden outpointed McCarthy, or McCarthy had no juice bc he wanted to avoid default