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Thomas de Waal Profile picture
@Tom_deWaal
Jan 10, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Today at my lecture on conflicts in Tbilisi at @Boell_SC I will cite Lord Palmerston's famous quotation from 1865 on the Schleswig-Holstein question. Important that the actors still press for progress in #Abkhazia and don't let it become another obscure forgotten conflict! 1.
“The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who is dead. The second was a German professor who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it.” 2.
More on Abkhazia in English at carnegieeurope.eu/2018/12/03/unc… and now in Georgian at ge.boell.org/ka/2019/01/04/… 3.

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Oct 21
1 A close call in #Moldova on the referendum and first round of the pres. election reveals the country’s problems, current and structural: historic polarization, vulnerability to influence of oligarchs and Moscow, poverty, demographic crisis.
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…
2 A reminder that the question to voters wasn't “Do you want to join the EU?” but on changing the constitution. Even if voters had voted No that still gave the government. room for manoeuvre. But it was still a sobering result for the govt. and Brussels.
ipn.md/en/model-and-t…
3 As the great Moldova expert William Hill said recently (and quite prophetically), Russia’s influence slowly wanes, but the road is bumpy and Moldova still has a lot of work to do to ensure a European future.
foreignaffairs.com/moldova/russia…
Read 8 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Oct 16, 2023
1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches.
president.az/en/articles/vi…
2 The choreography underlines that. Delivered in camouflage fatigues in an empty square in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Aliyev was later filmed touring abandoned streets and offices alone.
3. The message is very much “#Karabakh without Armenians.” Delivered in the Azeri language to the “Azerbaijani people.” Note: “All the people of Azerbaijan are praising Allah.” The “we” here doesn't include the Armenians who fled 3 weeks ago, there's no call to them to return.
Read 7 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
2 For good coverage see the websites of @CivilGe
@JAMnewsCaucasus @OCMediaorg (and its @mari_nikuradze) All are small independent outlets, which are incidentally threatened by the new legislation. Also look at @formulaGe who had these iconic pictures
3 The bill and crackdown are a massive challenge to the EU, which offered GE conditional candidate perspective last year. “This law is incompatible with EU values and standards. It goes against Georgia’s stated objective of joining the European Union,”
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-s…
Read 12 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 7, 2023
Important days in the war in eastern Ukraine, a major crisis in Georgia, but don’t forget also the situation in and around #Karabakh. Here's the piece I published a week ago on “Armenia’s insecurity” for @Carnegie_Europe @Judy_Dempsey
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Since then the situation has got a bit worse. The Lachin Corridor to Karabakh remains closed to all but a few vehicles, chiefly the ICRC. And three Armenian policemen and two Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in two separate incidents. rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…
My main point: the ARM-AZ situation is very volatile, it can tip into more violence, or there could be a framework peace agreement. PM Pashinyan has gone out on a limb, but Pres. Aliyev continues to press and make the Armenians insecure--a situation which Russia exploits.
Read 4 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.
2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians.
eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…
3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.”
jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…
Read 8 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Jun 9, 2022
1 Credit to @Kamal_Makili for setting out the case for Aaland Islands style autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians very eloquently here.
commonspace.eu/node/11445
2 As Kamal himself points out, neither Baku nor Stepanakert is interested in discussing this at the moment. But he makes some important points, including about how international guarantees underpin the Aaland Islands model.
3 In my recent (not so much noticed) article for Analyticon I also mention the three big Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity, self-determination and non-use of force as 3 conceptual pillars of a peace process.
theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Read 9 tweets

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