Thread by @jentaub

🧵Thread

We Have Seen the Mueller Report –– And It’s Spectacular

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Special Counsel Robert Mueller is nearing the end of his 20-month probe into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. When the investigation closes he must provide the Attorney General with a confidential report explaining his prosecutorial decisions.

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In anticipation, some pundits warn us to dial down the enthusiasm. It'll be anti-climactic, they caution. Don’t expect a public report, some say. Ignore them. Pay attention to documents already filed. Through them, we/ve seen much of the Mueller Report. And it is spectacular 3/

From the first indictments through the latest, we’ve witnessed many months of colorful fireworks. By now, we’re inured to the explosions, overstimulated and worn down. But it's not the Fourth of July when, after the finale, we can just pack up in the smoky dark and head home

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No. It’s time for a real battle to begin. To prepare, let’s review where we are, what we know, and what we are still waiting for.

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The Mueller Mandate -- In May 2017, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Mueller to take over the Russian interference investigation initiated by the FBI in 2016, and empowered him to prosecute offenders where “necessary and appropriate.”

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Rosenstein referenced three specific investigative areas. He tasked Mueller with (1) finding any links between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia’s efforts.

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He additionally authorized Mueller to (2) dig into matters “that arose or may arise directly from the investigation.” And, he empowered Mueller to (3) pursue and prosecute interference crimes like perjury, obstruction, and witness intimidation.

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So. Has Mueller found any links or coordination between the Russian government and the individuals associated with candidate Trump? Was there coordination? Was there interference?

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Yes, yes, and yes. There were links. There was coordination. There was interference in the form of lying to government investigators –– a cover up, if you will. Let’s review.

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Campaign Cover up of Russian Links

The Mueller grand jury has secured guilty pleas and/or indictments from several people associated with the Trump campaign for lying about their links with the Russian government –– the federal crime is called False Statements.

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First George Papdopolous, a campaign foreign policy advisor pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI about his extensive contacts with a London-based professor who told him he had ties to Russian officials in Moscow.

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In April of 2016, the prof told Papadopolous that the Russians had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of thousands of emails. He introduced Papadopolous to a contact in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Through the Papadopolous indictment, Mueller informed us that he wasn't a lone wolf. He communicated his plans with his campaign supervisor and also informed perhaps Lewandowski (referred to as a High-Ranking Campaign Official) a desire to have “Putin wanting to host” Trump

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Next, Michael Flynn, former campaign national security advisor, also lied to the FBI about the nature of phone calls he had with the Russian Ambassador to the United States.

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The Flynn calls took place in late December 2016, just after President Obama signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Russia in response to the revelation of Russian cyberattacks on the election.

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The Obama sanctions included the immediate expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from the United States. Just prior to calling the ambassador, Flynn coordinated a plan his transition team colleagues, who were visiting the Trump Mar-a-Lago resort.

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During an FBI interview in the White House in January of 2017, Flynn falsely stated that during the call he hadn’t asked the Ambassador to “refrain from escalating the situation” in response to the sanctions.

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Also, Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal attorney and fixer pleaded guilty to making false statements to Congress. He lied to both Senate and House committees.

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In a 2017 letter to both committees Cohen falsely stated that his efforts to help build a Trump-branded tower in Moscow ended early in the campaign, in January 2016. He also falsely claimed that no one in Russia ever got back to him after he reached out via a January email.

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However, this was a lie. In fact, Cohen’s admitted that his involvement in the Moscow Project continued until mid-June of 2016. Candidate Trump was involved. He signed a letter of intent in the October 2015.

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Yet, during the campaign, Trump repeatedly denied any ties to Russia. However, upon learning of the Cohen plea, the president said, “There would be nothing wrong if I did do it. I was running my business while I was campaigning.”

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Mueller also knows in spring of 2016, Paul Manafort, who would soon become chairman, shared campaign polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik, his Russian associate with apparent ties to Russian military intelligence. We know this due to a redacting snafu by Manafort’s counsel

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And, through yesterday's indictment, Mueller reported that Roger Stone, an associate of Trump campaign, lied to Congress about his attempts to communicate with WikiLeaks, an entity linked to the 12 Russian intelligence officials that Mueller indicted in July for conspiracy

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The Stone indictment included 5 counts for making false statements to Congress. According to Mueller's grand jury, he falsely communicated or testified that:

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(1) he did not have emails with third parties about Julian Assange, the head of Wikileaks, and that he did not have any documents, emails, or text messages that refer Assange;

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(2) his August 2016 references to being in contact with Assange were references to communications with a single ‘go-between,’ ‘mutual friend,’ and ‘intermediary,’ were Credico, but they were not;

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He also falsely stated that

(3) he did not ask Corsi to communicate anything to Assange and did not ask the intermediary to do anything on his behalf;

(4) he and Corsi did not communicate via text message or email about Wikileaks;

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And, the indictment says he falsely stated

(5) he had never discussed his conversations with Corsi with anyone involved in the Trump Campaign.

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Okay, so lots of liars. But there's more. So far Mueller has also reported to us on The Russian Conspiracy and the Campaign Coordination

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Mueller has also reported the belief that members of the Trump Campaign and an associate regular contact with candidate Trump and his campaign –– Roger Stone –– was involved in staged release of documents and emails that Russian government stole from Democrats and Clinton

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The grand jury indictment of Stone and (earlier July 2018 indictment of the intelligence Russian officials) alongside Trump's pubic comments provides a helpful timeline.

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Beginning in March 2016: Russian government officials hacked into the computers Clinton campaign, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the Democratic National Committee and stole emails and documents, according to the July indictment.

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May 2016: DNC and DNCC discover that their computer systems were compromised and there had been unauthorized intrusions. According to Stone indictment. (Timeline source going forward in this thread are to the Stone indictment unless otherwise stated).

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June 3, 2016: [Based on news]] British publicist Rob Goldstone sent email to Donald Trump Jr. informing him of information originating with the Russian government.

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The Goldstone email said he could provide the “campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate” Clinton “and would be very useful to your father.” (News)

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Goldstone also wrote that: “This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump-helped along by Aras and Emin.”

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On that same day, Junior sent a reply email to Goldstone in which he wrote: “Seems we have some time and if it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer. Could we do a call first thing next week when I am back?”

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June 7, 2016: Also based on news reports, Trump said “I am going to give a major speech on probably Monday of next week, and we're going to be discussing all of the things that have taken place with the Clintons.” However that speech was postponed.

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June 9, 2016: Based on news reports, there was a meeting in Trump Tower.between three members of the Trump campaign, Don Jr., Kushner and Manafort with a Kremlin-linked Russian lawyer and others

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June 9, 2016 (same day, news sources): The meeting was scheduled for 4 p.m. It lasted between 20 - 30 minutes. At 4:40, Donald Trump tweeted at Hillary: “How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up--and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?”

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June 14, 2016: Through a security company, DNC announces it has been hacked.

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June 2016: In July indictment Mueller reveals: "In response [to the announcement of hack], the Conspirators created the online persona Guccifer 2.0 and falsely claimed to be a lone Romanian hacker to undermine the allegations of Russian responsibility for the intrusion"

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June 22, 2016: (According to July indictment): WikiLeaks "sent a private message to Guccifer 2.0 to '[s]end any new material [stolen from the DNC] here for us to review and it will have a much higher impact than what you are doing.'"

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July 6, 2016: (Same indictment): WikLeaks "added 'f you have anything hillary related we want it in the next tweo [sic] days prefable [sic] because the DNC [Democratic National Convention] s approaching and she will solidify bernie supporters behind her after.'"

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July 6, 2016: "The [Russian] Conspirators responded, 'ok . . . i see.' [WikLeaks] explained, 'we think trump has only a 25% chance of winning against hillary . . . so conflict between bernie and hillary is interesting.'"

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July 14, 2016: "After failed attempts to transfer the stolen documents starting in late June 2016, on or about July 14, 2016, the Conspirators, posing as Guccifer 2.0, sent [WikiLeaks] an email with an attachment titled 'wk dnc link1.txt.gpg.'"

(July indictment)

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Same Day, July 14, 2016: "The Conspirators explained to [WikiLeaks] that the encrypted file contained instructions on how to access an online archive of stolen DNC documents. (July indictment)

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July 18, 2016: " [WikiLeaks] confirmed it had 'the 1Gb or so archive' and would make a release of the stolen documents 'this week.'" (July indictment)

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July 22, 2016: Wikileaks releases documents stolen from the DNC. BOOM

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July 23, 2016: Trump tweets about WikiLeaks (which he at times calls WikiLeakes) for first time. “Leaked e-mails of DNC show plans to destroy Bernie Sanders. Mock his heritage and much more. On-line from Wikileakes, really vicious. RIGGED”

(source: Trump Twitter archive)

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Same Day, July 23, 2016: Trump tweets: “The Wikileaks e-mail release today was so bad to Sanders that it will make it impossible for him to support her, unless he is a fraud!”

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July 23, 2016 and on: "After the July 22, 2016 release of stolen DNC emails by [Wikileaks], a senior Trump Campaign official was directed to contact Stone about any additional releases and what other damaging information [Wikileaks] had regarding the Clinton Campaign." BOOM!

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July 25, 2016: Stone begins to corresponded with associates about contacting Wikileaks to obtain more dirt on Hillary Clinton. He said to Jerome Corsi, ‘Get to [Assange].”

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Same Day: Stone message to Corsi: “Get to [Assange] [a]t Ecuadorian Embassy in London and get the pending [WikiLeaks] emails . . . they deal with Foundation, allegedly.’

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Same day: "[Corsi] forwarded STONE’s email to an associate who lived in the United Kingdom and was a supporter of the Trump Campaign.”

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July 26, 2016: Trump tweets: “In order to try and deflect the horror and stupidity of the Wikileakes disaster, the Dems said maybe it is Russia dealing with Trump. Crazy!”

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July 27, 2016: Candidate Trump gave a speech during which he said, "Russia, if you’re listening . . “I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.”

(From news sources)

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July 27, 2016: Trump tweeted the following: “If Russia or any other country or person has Hillary Clinton's 33,000 illegally deleted emails, perhaps they should share them with the FBI!”

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July 27, 2016: Same day as Russia are you listening speech: “[T]he [Russian] Conspirators attempted after hours to spearphish for the first time email accounts at a domain hosted by a thirdparty provider and used by Clinton’s personal office."

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Same Day: "At or around the same time, they also targeted seventy-six email addresses at the domain for the Clinton Campaign.” (source for this and previous tweet #60 is July indictment)

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July 31, 2016: Stone “emailed [Corsi] with the subject line, ‘Call me MON.’ The body of the email read in part that [Corsi’s] associate in the United Kingdom ‘should see [Assange].”

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Early August 2016: Stone is already publicly and privately stating that he has been communicating with WikiLeaks.

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August 2, 2016: Corsi sent an email stating “that he was currently in Europe and planned to return in or around mid-August. [Corsi] stated in part, ‘Word is friend in embassy plans 2 more dumps. One shortly after I’m back. 2nd in Oct. Impact planned to be very damaging.’

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August 2, 2016 continued: The "phrase ‘friend in embassy’ referred to the [Assange]. Corsi added in the same email, ‘Time to let more than [the Clinton Campaign chairman] to be exposed as in bed w enemy if they are not ready to drop HRC."

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Same email from Corsi to Stone: "That appears to be the game hackers are now about. Would not hurt to start suggesting HRC old, memory bad, has stroke – neither he nor she well. I expect that much of next dump focus, setting stage for Foundation debacle.’”

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August 8, 2016: At a public event, Stone said, “I actually have communicated with [Assange]. I believe the next tranche of his documents pertain to the Clinton Foundation, but there’s no telling what the October surprise may be.”

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August 12, 2016: During an interview, Stone said he had been “’in communication with [Assange]’ but was ‘not at liberty to discuss what I have.’”

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August 18, 2016: During interview, Stone said, “it became known on this program that I have had some back-channel communication with [WikiLeaks] and [WikiLeaks].” And: “that he ‘communicated with [Assange]’ and that they had a ‘mutual acquaintance who is a fine gentleman.’”

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August 19, 2016: Stone “stated during a television interview that he had communicated with the head of Organization 1 through an ‘intermediary, somebody who is a mutual friend.’”

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On same day, Randy Credico “sent a text message to Stone that read in part, ‘I’m going to have [Assange] on my show next Thursday.’ On or about August 21, 2016, [Credico] sent another text message . . ‘I have [Assange] on Thursday so I’m completely tied up on that day.’”

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August 23, 2016: During radio interview, Credico asked Stone, “You’ve been in touch indirectly with [Assange]. . . . Can you give us any kind of insight? Is there an October surprise happening?”

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In response to question, Stone said, “Well, first of all, I don’t want to intimate in any way that I control or have influence with [Assange] because I do not. . We have a mutual friend, somebody we both trust and therefore I am a recipient of pretty good information.”

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August 25, 2016: Credico texts Stone ‘[Assange] talk[ed] about you last night.’ Stone asked what the head of WikiLeaks said". Credico responded, "He didn’t say anything bad we were talking about how the Press is trying to make it look like you and he are in cahoots."

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August 27, 2016: “Credico sent text messages to Stone that said, “We are working on a [Assange] radio show,” and that he ([Credico]) was in charge’ of the project. In a text message sent later that day, Credico added, “[Assange] has kryptonite on Hillary.’”

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Mid-August 2016: Wikileaks made a comment denying contact with Stone. Stone later said that the only contact he had with Wikileaks was through Credico. Stone continued to communicate with the campaign about Wikileaks and future releases

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September 18, 2016: Stone texts Credico, "‘I am e-mailing u a request to pass on to [Assange]. [Credico] responded ‘Ok,’ and added in a later text message, ‘[j]ust remember do not name me as your connection to [Assange] you had one before that you referred to.’”

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Same day: Stone emailed Credico with a negative article attached about Clinton: "Please ask [Assange] for any State or HRC e-mail from August 10 to August 30—particularly on August 20, 2011 that mention [the subject of the article] or confirm this narrative."

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September 19, 2016: Stone text to Credico: ‘Pass my message . . . to [Assange].’ [Credico] responded, ‘I did.’"

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September 20, 2016, "[Credico] forwarded the request to a friend who was an attorney with the ability to contact the head of [Assange]. [Credico] blind-copied Stone on the forwarded email.’”

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September 30, 2016: “[Credico] sent Stone via text message a photograph of [Credico] standing outside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London where the head of [WikiLeaks] was located.”

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October 1, 2016: Credico text to Stone: "‘big news Wednesday . .now pretend u don’t know me . . Hillary’s campaign will die this week'" "In the days preceding . . the press had reported that [Assange] planned to make a public announcement on or about Tuesday, October 4"

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October 2, 2016: Stone emailed Credico "‘WTF?," and link to article "reporting that [WikiLeaks] was canceling its ‘highly anticipated Tuesday announcement due to security concerns.’ Credico responded . . ‘head fake.’” Stone texted Credico, ‘Did [Assange] back off.’"

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October 3, 2016: Credico “initially responded, ‘I can’t tal[k] about it.’ After further exchanges with Stone, [Credico] said, ‘I think it[’]s on for tomorrow.’"

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Same Day: "[Credico] added later that day, ‘Off the Record Hillary and her people are doing a full-court press they [sic] keep [Assange] from making the next dump . . . That’s all I can tell you on this line . . . Please leave my name out of it.’”

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October 3, 2016: Stone “wrote to a supporter involved with the Trump Campaign, ‘Spoke to my friend in London last night. The payload is still coming.’”

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Same day: Stone “received an email from a reporter who had connections to a high-ranking Trump Campaign official that asked, ‘Assange – what’s he got? Hope it’s good.’ Stone . . . ‘It is. I’d tell [the high-ranking Trump Campaign official] but he doesn’t call me back.’”

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October 4, 2016: Assange “held a press conference but did not release any new materials pertaining to the Clinton Campaign. Shortly afterwards, Stone received an email from the high-ranking Trump Campaign official asking about the status of future releases by [WikiLeaks]"

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Same Day: "Stone answered that [Assange]had a ‘[s]erious security concern’ but that [WikiLeaks] would release ‘a load every week going forward.’”

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Same day: Supporter texted Stone re"if he had ‘hear[d] anymore from London. Stone replied ‘Yes - want to talk on a secure line - got Whatsapp?’ Stone subsequently told the supporter that more material would be released and that it would be damaging to the Clinton Campaign’”

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October 7, 2016: The Obama administration announces its belief that the Russian government hacked, stole and released emails from the Democratic National Committee and others and they “are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.”

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Same Day October 7, 2016: The press releases the Access Hollywood video that captured Trump on a hot mic discussing sexually assaulting women, "I don't even wait. And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything"

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Same Day October 7, 2016: Wikileaks “released the first set of emails stolen from the Clinton Campaign chairman."

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Same Day October 7, 2016: "Shortly after [WikiLeak’s] release, an associate of the high-ranking Trump Campaign official sent a text message to Stone that read ‘well done.’"

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October 7 - November 7, 2016: Wikileaks “released approximately 33 tranches of documents that had been stolen from the personal email account of the Clinton Campaign chairman, totaling over 50,000 stolen documents.”

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October 10, 2016: [According to news accounts], Trump said, “This just came out. . ‘WikiLeaks, I love WikiLeaks.”

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Okay, timeline done. What does this mean? Why didn't the Roger Stone indictment charge him with Conspiracy? A few answers. First, it's possible that the grand jury does not have sufficient evidence of one of the elements, like an agreement. Second, Mueller could be waiting

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But, if he did, it might be Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the United States, alleging that Stone was part of that Conspiracy described in the July indictment. It involve conspiracy to violate the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act.

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"The object of the conspiracy was to hack into the computers of U.S. persons and entities involved in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, steal documents from those computers, and stage releases of the stolen documents to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election."

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Another conspiracy charge could be Conspiracy to Defraud the United States. This is a standalone crime and was used in two separate Mueller indictments. It was used in the Feb. indictment against Russian nationals and 2 entities that crated fake websites FB pages & rallies

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That theory, Conspiracy to Defraud the United States was part of an indictment of Rick Gates.

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In Feb indictment (the one against the 13 Russian individuals and three entities), the grand jury alleged "Defendants knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other (and with persons known and unknown to the Grand Jury) to defraud the United States . .

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"by impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful functions of the government through fraud and deceit for the purpose of interfering with the U.S.
political and electoral processes, including the presidential election of 2016."

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Okay, but let's talk about the gaps in Mueller Report, meaning what we know so far. What he has told us through the so-called "speaking" indictments. Let's look at the gaps.

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Missing in Action: The Man Himself, the Trump Tower Meeting, and More

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Missing from the Mueller reporting thus far is any mention of efforts by Trump himself to interfere with the Russia investigation. From the firing of James Comey to Twitter-based witness intimidation to disappearing translator notes.

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We’ve read plenty in the press and from legal experts about his potential criminal obstruction of the Russia investigation. We’ve wondered if his has made any criminally false statements his written response to Mueller’s questions.

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Further, Mueller has been notably silent on the June 9, 2016 Trump Tower meeting in Manhattan between Manafort, Don Jr., and Kushner met in Trump Tower and a group including a Kremlin-linked lawyer and a Russian American with an alleged expertise in cyberattacks

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While Trump was not apparently present at the meeting, does Mueller have evidence he was aware of it, agreed to it, or even directed part of the discussion?

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There is still mysterious phone calls between Junior and a “unknown caller.” And, Steve Bannon vividly told journalist Michael Wolff “The chance that Don Jr. did not walk these Jumos up to his father's office of the 26th floor is zero.”

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From moment in July 2017 when the NYT broke the story of meeting, it has been the subject of much legal analysis. Depending upon what Mueller knows, this could be the smoking gun for a range of criminal charges including criminal conspiracy to violate federal election law

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So far not a single Mueller document has addressed this meeting or the related cover up. The silence is deafening. There’s been credible news sources indicating that Trump helped his son create a false statement to the press concerning the nature of that meeting.

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Trump apparently crafted the statement during his flight home from the G-20 Summit on Airforce One. The night before he dictated Junior’s cover story, he spent an hour talking privately with Putin. He relied solely on Putin’s translator.

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And, there’s more. We have other missing links and loose ends. The Alfa Bank servers. The foreign country-owned company who has refused to provide documents to Mueller. The separate investigation involving Maria Butina and the NRA.

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And, of course we must remember Trump was implicated by federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York in several campaign finance offenses stemming from the pre-election hush-money payoffs to Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels.

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But, still, we wait for Mueller.

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While we are waiting, it’s wise to both recalibrate our expectations and to celebrate the special counsel’s most salient revelations to date. And, we need a legal and political framework for what may prove to be a nuanced final report. Impeachment must stay on the table

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Let’s be clear. Mueller is good, but he’s not a God. He cannot not provide us with every single missing piece of information that we want. But that should not disappoint, distract or delay us.

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The special counsel investigation has already delivered the evidence we need to take action to remove from office a corruptly compromised president who, in the word of veteran reporter Carl Bernstein, “helped Putin destabilize the United States.”

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