Okay, I’ve been thinking about possible explanations for Mueller wrapping up and delivering a report as soon as next week.
Here’s the most plausible take I have come up with...
...and it’s more positive than negative.
1/
Here’s the most plausible take I have come up with...
...and it’s more positive than negative.
1/
Mueller, as we know, is a Special Counsel not a Special Prosecutor.
He was appointed as a specific result of Comey being fired and was effectively tasked with playing a role closer to a head of the FBI than a federal prosecutor.
His role is primarily investigatory.
2/
He was appointed as a specific result of Comey being fired and was effectively tasked with playing a role closer to a head of the FBI than a federal prosecutor.
His role is primarily investigatory.
2/
We all see Mueller as more of a prosecutor than a head of the FBI though... even though his primary credential for the Special Counsel role post-Comey was his tenure as the Director of the FBI BEFORE Comey.
When you view Mueller’s work through that lens it makes more sense.
3/
When you view Mueller’s work through that lens it makes more sense.
3/
Mueller has been tasked with unraveling Russian election interference and any involvement by the Trump campaign.
That is, overseeing the investigation right up to the point of potentially recommending charges and prosecutions... and then handing over the findings.
4/
That is, overseeing the investigation right up to the point of potentially recommending charges and prosecutions... and then handing over the findings.
4/
That’s less toothless than it sounds. While it doesn’t feel like a route to justice, it is no different than how the FBI typically works.
The FBI doesn’t prosecute per se. They unravel crimes and then engage prosecutors to seek indictments and pursue prosecutions.
5/
The FBI doesn’t prosecute per se. They unravel crimes and then engage prosecutors to seek indictments and pursue prosecutions.
5/
In a way, we’ve all been conditioned to see Mueller as a one-stop investigator/prosecutor.
We’ve seen his work produce a long list of high-profile indictments and, naturally, played that forward to expect he’d drop indictments all the way to the Oval Office.
6/
We’ve seen his work produce a long list of high-profile indictments and, naturally, played that forward to expect he’d drop indictments all the way to the Oval Office.
6/
However, if you look at those indictments through the above lens (Mueller as investigator not prosecutor) it seems clear he has primarily targeted valuable sources of further information.
He hasn’t indicted any dead ends.
He has targeted people with something to offer.
7/
He hasn’t indicted any dead ends.
He has targeted people with something to offer.
7/
It started with Flynn and Papadopoulos. Then Gates and Manafort. Then Cohen. Now Stone.
He has targeted people with info and significant incentive to give it up.
He has skipped people who will likely never roll over on Trump - like Junior.
8/
He has targeted people with info and significant incentive to give it up.
He has skipped people who will likely never roll over on Trump - like Junior.
8/
In other words, he has been pursuing indictments as INVESTIGATIVE TOOL first rather than as prosecution end points.
Mueller’s explicit task was to unravel the full story of Russia’s election meddling and the Trump camp’s involvement.
That’s what he has been doing.
9/
Mueller’s explicit task was to unravel the full story of Russia’s election meddling and the Trump camp’s involvement.
That’s what he has been doing.
9/
His task was never to oversee both the unraveling of the story AND the prosecutions of all identified law-breakers because again, he’s a proxy for Comey... not the Attoeney General.
Which brings us to the news reports that he’s wrapping up his work and drafting a report...
10/
Which brings us to the news reports that he’s wrapping up his work and drafting a report...
10/
Following the above line of thinking, Mueller’s work would be completed when he felt he had satisfactorily completed the investigation.
That is, when he had unraveled the story to the point of being able to lay it out in detail supported by evidence.
11/
That is, when he had unraveled the story to the point of being able to lay it out in detail supported by evidence.
11/
If Mueller has reached the point of writing a report, it means he feels he has gathered all the evidence he needs to lay out the full Trump-Russia narrative.
That is not only not a bad thing; it represents an inflection point that will be nerve-racking but likely positive.
12/
That is not only not a bad thing; it represents an inflection point that will be nerve-racking but likely positive.
12/
Mueller having a comprehensive story to tell is the tipping point.
It’s the moment when we go from a slow drip-drip-drip of indictments to a firehose of information on the whole sordid affair.
13/
It’s the moment when we go from a slow drip-drip-drip of indictments to a firehose of information on the whole sordid affair.
13/
Before going further, let’s take one quick side trip to something Andrew McCabe revealed this week...
In multiple interviews, McCabe explained that his primary focus in the days before Mueller joined was on Trump-proofing the evidence and investigations.
14/
In multiple interviews, McCabe explained that his primary focus in the days before Mueller joined was on Trump-proofing the evidence and investigations.
14/
Meaning, making it impossible for Trump or his allies to bury or destroy evidence or kill the investigation in one fell swoop.
McCabe hasn’t explained what steps the FBI took but we can make an educated guess.
15/
McCabe hasn’t explained what steps the FBI took but we can make an educated guess.
15/
The most logical way IMHO would be to both federate and matrix the work.
Meaning:
1) Federate - distribute portions of the investigations to multiple teams in multiple places
2) Matrix - interlace the work across those teams so each was working as a leader and contributor
16/
Meaning:
1) Federate - distribute portions of the investigations to multiple teams in multiple places
2) Matrix - interlace the work across those teams so each was working as a leader and contributor
16/
By both distributing investigative work to multiple groups and having those multiple groups working collaboratively, investigations and evidence couldn’t be “disappeared” without essentially shutting down everyone and everything.
Firing one person wouldn’t help...
17/
Firing one person wouldn’t help...
17/
Bringing it back around to Mueller...
Again, he was the former Director of the FBI.
It is absolutely impossible to believe that McCabe didn’t both brief him on those safeguards and work with him to strengthen them over the past 21 months.
18/
Again, he was the former Director of the FBI.
It is absolutely impossible to believe that McCabe didn’t both brief him on those safeguards and work with him to strengthen them over the past 21 months.
18/
A logical way to do that?
Distribute the myriad cases resulting from Mueller’s work back down into the FBI.
Federate and matrix.
Doing so would eliminate the risk that justice could be thwarted by merely burying Mueller’s report.
19/
Distribute the myriad cases resulting from Mueller’s work back down into the FBI.
Federate and matrix.
Doing so would eliminate the risk that justice could be thwarted by merely burying Mueller’s report.
19/
If Mueller’s report died in William Barr’s bottom drawer, Justice would die along with it.
If each chargeable offense was independently being pushed forward by the FBI / DOJ prosecutors, Barr would have to thwart case after case after case one by one.
Too public to stand.
20/
If each chargeable offense was independently being pushed forward by the FBI / DOJ prosecutors, Barr would have to thwart case after case after case one by one.
Too public to stand.
20/
This is already too long, so I’ll wrap it up...
If Mueller is truly writing his report, we can anxiously await its arrival with eagerness rather than dread.
It will likely be comprehensive, damning and obstruction-proof.
It isn’t an endpoint. It’s the turbo moment.
21/
If Mueller is truly writing his report, we can anxiously await its arrival with eagerness rather than dread.
It will likely be comprehensive, damning and obstruction-proof.
It isn’t an endpoint. It’s the turbo moment.
21/
Trump sees the Mueller report as the final chapter. A retrospective summary. A backward-looking document.
Instead, it’ll likely be an analysis and roadmap. It’ll lay out the myriad cases against myriad actors...
...and it’ll make clear those cases are already en route.
22/
Instead, it’ll likely be an analysis and roadmap. It’ll lay out the myriad cases against myriad actors...
...and it’ll make clear those cases are already en route.
22/
Don’t lose sleep worrying about the Mueller investigation or report.
The train can’t be stopped at this point.
One big reason: it isn’t one train. It’s myriad trains on myriad tracks overseen by engineers far smarter than the orange-faced doofus in a conductor’s hat.
23/23
The train can’t be stopped at this point.
One big reason: it isn’t one train. It’s myriad trains on myriad tracks overseen by engineers far smarter than the orange-faced doofus in a conductor’s hat.
23/23
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