For the investment professionals out there. What belief do you hold that the vast majority of your peers (75%+) do not share?
Here's a few of mine in no particular order....apologies for offending everyone in advance!
1. Investing based on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical investment strategy.
2. The Federal Reserve has done a good job.
3. Trend following strategies deserve a meaningful allocation to most portfolios.
4. A basic low cost global market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the vast majority of institutions over time.
5. US investors should be allocating a minimum of 50% of their stock allocation to non US countries.
6. 13F replication is a better approach to investing in most long term hedge funds than investing in the hedge funds themselves.
7. As long as you have some of the main ingredients (global stocks, bonds, real assets) your asset allocation doesn't really matter. What does matter is fees and taxes.
8. A simple quant screen on public stocks will outperform most private equity funds.
9. A reasonable time frame to evaluate a manager or strategy is 10, maybe 20 years.
10. I don't feel like I have to have an opinion on Telsa stock
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A simple way to think about stock markets...and returns in that mode back to 1920s in US.
Green Light: cheap, in an uptrend , 17%
Yellow Light: expensive, in an uptrend, 9% (now)
Red Light: expensive, in a down trend, 3%
trend 10-month SMA
valuation CAPE ratio at the time
This exercise really illustrates two insights...
1. The trend is your friend.
2. Using only value is dangerous as you can still make money in expensive markets and bubbles. But you need to have a parachute exit for when the signal changes...
So obviously the US is in Yellow Light mode (was darn close to Red Light recently and QQQs are there)....but there are some markets that are in Green Light mode, or as my friend Sjugg describes...
"We need to make America the place where everyone is an owner, and everyone acts like an owner. We need to make it the place where hard work and risk taking are applauded and rewarded."