Once, a really long time ago, I interviewed with his family office. They asked me a poker question on pot odds (I got it wrong), and at the end of the interview, said, "It seems like you really want to be a portfolio manager and not an allocator." Didn't get the job, but true of course.
Years later, I was at a wedding in Long Island and randomly passed Jim on a hike in the woods. Mumbled hello I was star-struck!
My favorite quote of his was from this video and I use it all the time, you've probably heard me say it on the podcast..."I can make the cliche work either way."
Below are the long bond historical drawdowns for the past 100 years.
Nominal biggest ever...real getting close...
and the 10 year
Apr 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I can't think of a single good reason why US investors put nearly all of their portfolio in US stocks, but they do.
Versus a global stock portfolio, US historical stock returns have been more volatile with larger drawdowns, and valuations are currently much higher than abroad.
Some may cite historical US outperformance, but other countries have beaten the US - you don't put all your money in Oz or South Africa do you?!
Mar 11, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Change "Silicon Valley Bank" to "Kansas Farmers Bank".
Replace "tech startups" with "farmers".
Replace "MBS" with "farm loans".
Do you feel different?
If you were calling for "let them fail" are you now screaming "save them?!"
Or vice versa.
Would any of the tech elite… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
this tweet was never about "techies" or "farmers", it was about bias.
which, the replies demonstrated in real-time quite clearly.
To all my tech friends dunking on the farmers, here's some farm episodes to learn:
"According to the BIS Real Effective Exchange Rate model,the dollar looks more expensive than in all but two events in the last 51 years – the levels in 1971 that signified the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement and the mid-1980’s dollar bubble that led to the Plaza Accord"
Really enjoyed this one
I'll share my experience with the vaccineinjured as I would've loved someone to talk to when I was dealing with it.Feel free to DM me.
I got absolutely wrecked for about 6 months.
I'm not anti vax - I also know healthy young people that died from COVID too. It's heartbreaking.
It's just important to be honest and transparent about the side effects.
When you give 12 billions doses even a .1% or 1% reaction is still millions of people.
@RealVision & @maggielake w/ @PeterZeihan on how the war between Russia & Ukraine is impacting international relations, asset prices & global stability
* there are 1M kids currently 'employed' in lithium mining
* a new lithium mine takes 16 yrs to open
* EV's are 20% plastic, which comes from petroleum
Lost in the brutal geopolitical news, a few of my favorite reads of the year dropped this week...they're below if you're looking to think on something else for a bit
and the 10 year 
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