A contrarian sentiment I've heard a lot recently is that "small and focused always wins" in tech. Now, this certainly *felt* right the first time I heard it - off the top of my head, I couldn't actually think of that many counterexamples
But on the other hand, this could just be the availability heuristic at work... so in the interest of intellectual honesty, I sat down for 20 minutes and compiled a list of every small and focused tech company I could think of that ultimately got stomped. Here's what I got:
1) Netscape -> Microsoft 2) Fitbit / Jawbone -> the Apple Watch 3) Lotus Notes -> Microsoft Word 4) Blackberry and Palm -> the iPhone (in the eternal words of Palm CEO Ed Colligan, circa 2006: “PC guys are not going to just figure this out")
5) Rackspace -> Amazon Web Services 6) Rhapsody -> iTunes Store 6) Mapquest -> Google Maps (ok fine Mapquest was owned by AOL already at that point) 7) Literally any adtech company in the late 2000s -> Google (though yes, I suppose they did acquire Doubleclick)
To be honest, this list was harder to put together than I expected (so maybe there's some truth to "small and focused" after all? either that or I just don't know enough failed mid-2000s consumer startups) - I'll probably update this list periodically, always open to suggestions
Two more enterprise names I just thought of: 8) Fusion-io -> Netapp + all the other legacy guys 9) Extreme Networks -> Cisco
Does "small and focused" matter less in enterprise? CIOs don't care about UX, they want one throat to choke, etc... but maybe the cloud changes that?
This tweet from @stevesi reminded me of a good one to add to this list:
10) QuarkXPress -> Adobe Creative Suite (and Adobe probably killed a bunch of other smid-cap companies making "creative" software in the 90s / early 2000s that I've never heard of)
For all of the talk today that Amazon has no focus vs nimbler vertical e-commerce companies, I think it’s pretty tough to argue that Marc Lore was ultimately the victor in the original Amazon-Diapers.com price war
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1/ I just finished a 2.5 week trip through China today, my first visit in about a decade. I was there for family reasons, but it also happened to be my first time in the country as a tech industry observer
My amateur travel journal on the China tech market -
2/ OBSERVATION #1 - Yes, everything really does run on WeChat
If you're a foreign traveler visiting China, you really must set up WeChat Pay and Alipay beforehand. For me, this was the Chinese equivalent of Whatsapp + Chrome + Venmo + my credit card + my subway card + Doordash
3/ I didn't use cash a single time on my 19 day trip. Everybody took WeChat Pay, from Michelin-starred restaurants, to McDonalds, to butchers at the farmers markets in tier 3 cities, to performing musicians in national parks
1/ Just caught up with a few investor friends in the consumer space last week about Ozempic and GLP1s
As far as I can tell, everything basically hinges on: how much does it matter that every consumer product in the world depends on a tiny cohort of super consumers?
2/ What happens if it turns out we’ve actually invented an all-purpose anti-addiction drug?
I suspect it’s not properly appreciated how many consumer categories follow a power law distribution of consumptiontheatlantic.com/health/archive…
3/ The top 9% of US adults account for 34% of US candy consumption
1/ I was rereading Softwar (the 2004 book on Larry Ellison and Oracle) this morning, and the main thing that stood out to me is that pretty much every idea in software today was already basically around 20 years ago
2/ Twenty years ago, everybody in the software industry was already debating whether "best of breed" applications would triumph over integrated solutions from Accenture ("one throat to choke")
3/ Twenty years ago, everybody in software was already complaining about how every company's data was getting siloed across a hundred different databases daisy-chained together by hacky ETL scripts, instead of a single system of record
1/ The more time I spend in the corporate world, the more I understand why everybody just hires ex-consultants and investment bankers
It’s not because McKinsey or Goldman Sachs actually teach you how to do the job, per se
It’s because hiring undergrads is a free rider problem
2/ Ultimately, new graduates don’t actually know how to do anything
This is less intended as a value judgment (I was the same when I graduated from Amherst), and more as a statement of fact that elite American universities are not intended to be trade schools
3/ Even if you already know “hard skills” like accounting or SQL, you usually still need 2-3 years to acquire the requisite soft skills to work independently, eg how to present to execs, how to make your ideas clear, how to convince coworkers to do stuff they don’t want to do…
It’s an awesome feeling when you come across a new blog or Substack, read a half dozen of their posts, and think “wow, every single one of these is good.” Only happens to me once or twice a year
I have no idea who @dynomight7 is but you’re cool, keep up the the good work
Some posts I’ll call out:
Why first discoveries in science are overrated, given the frequency of simultaneous invention (good ideas tend to be products of their unique time and place, at which point they become obvious to everyone around them)