A contrarian sentiment I've heard a lot recently is that "small and focused always wins" in tech. Now, this certainly *felt* right the first time I heard it - off the top of my head, I couldn't actually think of that many counterexamples
But on the other hand, this could just be the availability heuristic at work... so in the interest of intellectual honesty, I sat down for 20 minutes and compiled a list of every small and focused tech company I could think of that ultimately got stomped. Here's what I got:
1) Netscape -> Microsoft 2) Fitbit / Jawbone -> the Apple Watch 3) Lotus Notes -> Microsoft Word 4) Blackberry and Palm -> the iPhone (in the eternal words of Palm CEO Ed Colligan, circa 2006: “PC guys are not going to just figure this out")
5) Rackspace -> Amazon Web Services 6) Rhapsody -> iTunes Store 6) Mapquest -> Google Maps (ok fine Mapquest was owned by AOL already at that point) 7) Literally any adtech company in the late 2000s -> Google (though yes, I suppose they did acquire Doubleclick)
To be honest, this list was harder to put together than I expected (so maybe there's some truth to "small and focused" after all? either that or I just don't know enough failed mid-2000s consumer startups) - I'll probably update this list periodically, always open to suggestions
Two more enterprise names I just thought of: 8) Fusion-io -> Netapp + all the other legacy guys 9) Extreme Networks -> Cisco
Does "small and focused" matter less in enterprise? CIOs don't care about UX, they want one throat to choke, etc... but maybe the cloud changes that?
This tweet from @stevesi reminded me of a good one to add to this list:
10) QuarkXPress -> Adobe Creative Suite (and Adobe probably killed a bunch of other smid-cap companies making "creative" software in the 90s / early 2000s that I've never heard of)
For all of the talk today that Amazon has no focus vs nimbler vertical e-commerce companies, I think it’s pretty tough to argue that Marc Lore was ultimately the victor in the original Amazon-Diapers.com price war
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1/ If you really believe LLMs will dramatically compress the cost of software development in 3-5 years, doesn't this obviate the reason for independent software vendors to exist?
This doesn't seem obviously crazy to me - it'd just be a return to the days of mainframes
2/ When IBM invented the mainframe in the 50s, there were no independent software companies - IBM bundled their hardware with a COBOL compiler, which customers then used to write custom software themselves
3/ The world's first independent software vendors (e.g. ADR, Informatics, MSA) all started in the 60s as contract programmers - basically, consultants hired to write custom COBOL for clients - who then realized they could resell that custom code to multiple customers
1/ This internal 2007 Nokia presentation on the first iPhone is a really good example of how incumbents actually get disrupted
Oftentimes, the incumbent already knows what needs to be done. It's just that organizational incentives inhibit the incumbent from doing it
2/ This slide deck was posted on Hacker News earlier this week but just got taken down
I have no idea how they got their hands on a copy but it does look like a legit internal Nokia presentation from strategy team at the timenews.ycombinator.com/item?id=427247…
3/ Contrary to popular belief, people at Nokia in 2007 understood that the iPhone was a big deal
The iPhone's touchscreen would "set a new standard of state-of-art"
Nokia's own user interface paradigm was "in decline"
1/ I just finished a 2.5 week trip through China today, my first visit in about a decade. I was there for family reasons, but it also happened to be my first time in the country as a tech industry observer
My amateur travel journal on the China tech market -
2/ OBSERVATION #1 - Yes, everything really does run on WeChat
If you're a foreign traveler visiting China, you really must set up WeChat Pay and Alipay beforehand. For me, this was the Chinese equivalent of Whatsapp + Chrome + Venmo + my credit card + my subway card + Doordash
3/ I didn't use cash a single time on my 19 day trip. Everybody took WeChat Pay, from Michelin-starred restaurants, to McDonalds, to butchers at the farmers markets in tier 3 cities, to performing musicians in national parks
1/ Just caught up with a few investor friends in the consumer space last week about Ozempic and GLP1s
As far as I can tell, everything basically hinges on: how much does it matter that every consumer product in the world depends on a tiny cohort of super consumers?
2/ What happens if it turns out we’ve actually invented an all-purpose anti-addiction drug?
I suspect it’s not properly appreciated how many consumer categories follow a power law distribution of consumptiontheatlantic.com/health/archive…
3/ The top 9% of US adults account for 34% of US candy consumption
1/ I was rereading Softwar (the 2004 book on Larry Ellison and Oracle) this morning, and the main thing that stood out to me is that pretty much every idea in software today was already basically around 20 years ago
2/ Twenty years ago, everybody in the software industry was already debating whether "best of breed" applications would triumph over integrated solutions from Accenture ("one throat to choke")
3/ Twenty years ago, everybody in software was already complaining about how every company's data was getting siloed across a hundred different databases daisy-chained together by hacky ETL scripts, instead of a single system of record