Walnut Ave Value Profile picture
Apr 14, 2019 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Thread - examples of steep drops in wealth from not managing risks esp. in business with operating leverage

Reichmann wealth collapsed 90% due to the huge bet on Canary Wharf when real estate demand / pricing dropped and credit was hard to get /1
Next up: flashy salesguy Erik Bautista who lost 90%+ of his wealth in one year. His investors also lost it all because he lied about OGX offshore oil potential. Here's an article from 2013 that talks about it. /2
Perhaps the craziest saga is of Sean Quinn - who went from being the richest in Ireland to filing for bankruptcy. He used leveraged instrument to bet on 25% shares of Anglo Irish bank - the bank with really loose lending standards- prior to 2008 housing crisis. /3
Sean Quinn used a leveraged bet on a bank which already has a leveraged structure. How did he fund his bet? By taking money from his insurance company which also subsequently filed for bankruptcy. Turns out the insurance co. was also risky due to low insurance premiuums
/4
Vijay Mallya is the next fascinating example. He owned the biggest beer and spirits maker in India with high barrier to entry due to regulations, fast growth, and great brand.
BUT Mallya aspired to be Indian Richard Branson. He started an airline!

/5
Alcohool --> Airlines has got to be the worst capital recycling. Mallya's Kingfisher airline struggled from absorbing low cost loss maker, jet fuel price , jet fuel, and restrictions on foreign equity. He personally guaranteed airlines debt before the airlines shut down! /6
Continuing on: Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake (h/t @BarbarianCap). His $2 Billion stake in Chesapeake Energy stock melted down to $30 million in 100 days due to margin
whalewisdomalpha.com/the-mother-of-…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Walnut Ave Value

Walnut Ave Value Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @walnutavevalue

Apr 8, 2021
Long $MVBF:

At the surface, this is a small W. Va. bank trading around 1.7x TBV.

But a deeper looks shows that it's a fintech play with exposure to Credit Karma, crypto (Kraken) and most importantly igaming (Draftkings, Fanduel, etc)

Gaming deposits grew 70% from Q3 to Q4! Image
Around 2014-15, MVB was growing loan portfolio at 20% CAGR, but the deposits were not growing.

So CEO Larry Mazza and team went towards fintech as a way to get low cost deposits.
Larry: "We get deposits nationally but still loan locally”...

They are the bank for U.S. operations of Tipico, Score (tie up with Penn National gaming), and Betfred. MVB also has clients in FanDuel, DraftKings and Credit Karma.

Total 22 gaming client as of now
Read 23 tweets
Dec 25, 2020
I was still in high school in 2000, so obviously wasn't investing.
But the more I read, the more I realize it wasn't just a using "eyeballs" for valuation problem.

Thread below:
First up Xilinx

They were the leaders (and still are) with ~40% share in FPGAs. The end market was growing. They were growing fast as shown in this chart for fiscal year 2001 ending in March 2001
The CAGR was lot higher in closer to 2000 - it was growing 50%+. Until 2001 that is. That's when revenues dropped 30% due to market correction.

Xilinx - an innovator and leader in FPGAs - did not reach same stock price until 2018!
Read 22 tweets
Sep 7, 2020
I am long Nintendo.

It's fascinating setup because it's a great product, but it's an open question if it will be a good investment.

A thread on both sides here:
First, the long side

@aaronvalue does a great job highlighting the bull thesis here. tl;DR: Nintendo has great IP and they could monetize it in various ways.

mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/mama-mia-nin…
Second, culture of Nintendo limits what path they're likely to take in the future.

@ballmatthew: "some are driven by perfecting their specific process. Not scaling it."

Nintendo is likely to continue to be themselves, not what investors expect

matthewball.vc/all/onnintendo
Read 15 tweets
Mar 26, 2020
No one knows the impact of COVID yet because it's unknown and unknowable.

Reading Zeckhauser and @AnnieDuke is a better preparation for investing in this scenario than the predictions of economists.

Also, focusing on analyzing a single business at a time helps a bit.
" In the fog of pandemic, action must come before perfect information"
Most Buffett-fans don't talk about it, neither does Buffett talk about.

Zeckhauser does: Buffett is a master player when it comes to investing in the unknown and unknowable. One example is Earthquake reinsurance Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 15, 2020
$EVI

Quick summary of last QTR results:
GM% down due to initiatives to gain market share
Higher SG&A as they try to modernize their subsidiary operations

CEO called it "short term tradeoff for longer term growth"

/1 Image
Why can they make these short term tradeoffs?
1. Because the majority owners are insiders
2. Most stock options for employees vest at retirement

Folks on fintwit say they are looking for management with long term focus, but lot of digs at $EVI results

/2
The one legitimate criticism is "Where is the cash flow or EBITDA?"

It's hard to tell with so much "buy" activity.

So we have to look back before the buy activity started. Distributors are mid-single digit businesses as seen in Steiner Atlantic statements below

/3 Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 29, 2019
Shipping thread:

There's been a long bear market in shipping rates. And new ship building activity dropped post 2010. And more than half of the shipyards close

/1
If we look at the sub-segment of tankers, and specifically clean tankers, in the last 5 years supply has gone up in terms of dead weight tons. In 2019, the deadweight tons went up by another 6 million, but the TCE rates have still gone up a lot.

/2
Further, demolition activity for tankers dropped in 2019 because it was high in 2018 (181 tankers) and the TCE rates for both dirty and clean tankers was high in 2019.

What this all mean? There's inflection now where supply is (finally) constrained

/3


hellenicshippingnews.com/just-4-vlccs-s…
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(