Thread by @kenvogel

MUELLER: MANAFORT "expected" his Russian-intel-linked deputy KONSTANTIN KILIMNIK to share internal TRUMP campaign polling data with "others in Ukraine and with DERIPASKA," although "Manafort claims not to recall that specific instruction."

WOW: KILIMNIK delivered a "peace" plan to MANAFORT that was actually a "'backdoor' means for Russia to control eastern Ukraine."
It came from Russia-aligned ex-Ukrainian prez YANUKOVYCH, who pledged that if Manafort signed on, he'd be received in Russia "at the very top level."

PRO-RUSSIAN PLAN TO CONTROL EASTERN UKRAINE: "All that is required to start the process is a very minor 'wink' (or slight push) from [DONALD TRUMP]," KILIMNIK emailed MANAFORT, who was asked to be the "U.S. representative" for the plan.

TRUMP DOESN'T RECALL PRO-RUSSIA PEACE PLAN: "According to the President's written answers, he does not remember Manafort communicating to him any particular positions that Ukraine or Russia would want the United States to support."

MANAFORT denied speaking to anyone in TRUMP's campaign or admin. about the peace plan
*But Mueller notes:
1) he "was not...able to gain access to all of Manafort's electronic comms."
2) MANAFORT "lied to [Mueller] & the grand jury about the peace plan
& his mtgs with Kilimnik"

CLEAREST EXPLANATION FOR MANAFORT = $: MUELLER puzzled over MANAFORT's purpose in sharing polling data with KILIMNIK during the campaign.

But Manafort told GATES that the campaign would be "good for business" & "potentially a way to be made whole" for previous Ukraine work.

MANAFORT AS PRO-$, NOT PRO-RUSSIA (cont'd): "As to DERIPASKA, Manafort claimed that by sharing campaign information with him, Deripaska might see value in their relationship & resolve a 'disagreement'-a reference to
one or more outstanding lawsuits."

MUELLER DISMISSES LEADING COLLUSION THEORY: The investigation "did not identify evidence of a connection between Manafort's sharing polling data & Russia's interference" & "did not establish that Manafort otherwise
coordinated with the Russian gov't on its election-interference."

DERIPASKA sued @AP for libel for implying he was paying MANAFORT for work advancing the goals of the Kremlin.

BUT Mueller report seems to corroborate @AP, referencing a 2005 memo from Manafort to Deripaska on "the benefits that the work could confer on 'the Putin Government.'"

MANAFORT told MUELLER he didn't believe KILIMNIK was a Russian spy, but Mueller produced evidence supporting the @FBI's assessment that Kilimnik has ties to Russian intelligence, including his relationship with DERIPASKA deputy VICTOR BOYARKIN (himself an ex-spy), as well as:

TRUMP-MANAFORT RELATIONSHIP: Trump has suggested he barely knew Manafort before the campaign

BUT: MUELLER says Manafort recalled seeing Trump at New York events & at ROGER STONES's wedding, & suggested he helped Trump get VIP status at the 1988 & 1996 Republican conventions.

MANAFORT planned to stay outside the administration & "monetize his relationship" with TRUMP, GATES told MUELLER.
* In fact, Manafort tried to do this even as investigators closed in, pitching himself to Chinese funds & officials in Kurdistan & Ecuador. nytimes.com/2018/12/03/us/…

BLATANT EFFORT TO CASH IN ON TRUMP: Immediately upon joining the TRUMP campaign, MANAFORT directed GATES to draft memos to oligarchs including DERIPASKA, AKHMETOV & LYOVOCHKIN, trumpeting his role on the campaign & offering to consult on Ukrainian politics in the future.

One of MANAFORT's main goals in continuing to work with KILIMNIK during the campaign was collecting $2M they believed they were owed by the Russia-aligned Opposition Bloc, MUELLER confirms, corroborating a groundbreaking @politico story by @loydstern & me. politico.com/story/2016/08/…

CONFIRMED: MANAFORT instructed GATES in April/May 2016 to send TRUMP polling data to KILIMNIK to share with Ukrainian oligarchs, as we reported.
*We initially reported, then retracted, that DERIPASKA was intended recipient, but MUELLER confirmed that, too. nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/…

MANAFORT WANTED TO LOBBYING TRUMP FOR DERIPASKA: Manafort told Mueller that, "if TRUMP won, DERIPASKA would want to use Manafort to advance whatever interests Deripaska had in the US & elsewhere."

* Deripaska has said that his interests are the same as the Kremlin's.

CONFIRMED: In May 2016, KILIMNIK met in DC with @StateDept employees, which we reported in Feb., & which was challenged by folks claiming we got duped by Kremlin agents.
Kilimnik is a complicated figure, who defies easy caricatures as a Boris-like spy. nytimes.com/2019/02/23/us/…

INTERESTING: MANAFORT argued to Mueller that coded references to "the guy who gave you your biggest black caviar jar" actually mean VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH, & not OLEG DERIPASKA, which would contradict some reporting on Manafort-Kilimnik emails from which the reference came.

MUELLER SHOOTS ANOTHER THEORY: Some outlets reported that KILIMNIK flew on DERIPASKA's plane to attend August 2016 mtg in NY with MANAFORT & GATES.

NOPE: Kilimnik flew commercial, while the only passengers who flew on Deripaska's plane into NJ were the oligarch's family.

After being forced out of the campaign, MANAFORT continued offering advice through the election to JARED KUSHNER, STEVE BANNON & even DONALD TRUMP, Manafort told GATES.
* It's not clear whether they wanted or heeded his advice, or whether he was exaggerating to Gates.

CASHING IN: After the election, MANAFORT accepted $$$ from interests in the Middle East, Cuba, South Korea, Japan & China "to explain what a TRUMP presidency would entail."
* At the time, he was being investigated for activity that would eventually lead to his indictment.