Tesla’s R&D productivity is completely insane. It is out of this world. 1/5 $TSLA @elonmusk @Tesla
In late 2016, Tesla severed ties with Mobileye and had to rebuild the vision stack from scratch. Just 2 years later, Tesla’s solution is vastly better than Mobileye. Intel then acquired Mobileye for $15B. 2/5
Tesla’s new full self-driving chip also vastly outperforms NVDA’s. This too was achieved in just a few years, starting with close to zero in-house chip design capabilities. NVDA’s market cap is $116B and automotive is a big part of their story. 3/5
Tesla only spent $1.5B in R&D last year. It covered autonomy SW & HW, Model Y, Semi, Roadster, Pickup, Solar roof, mfg automation, cell/powertrain research, Supercharger v3, and Tesla Energy. Other automakers spent $7-10B each. 4/5
GAAP accounting treatment of R&D is just plain wrong for a company like Tesla. This is the most productive use of capital the world has ever seen. It is the fundamental reason why Tesla will continue to win. 5/5 @elonmusk $TSLA

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More from @DisruptResearch

23 Jan
The insane magnitude of the $TSLA robotaxi oppty seems underappreciated.

@elonmusk: "Flipping of the switch from a car that is from not robotaxi to robotaxi, I think, will probably be the biggest step-change increase in asset value in history by far."

What does this mean?

1/5
On autonomy day, Tesla suggested that the NPV (Net Present Value) of a robotaxi is ~$200K. Includes depreciation (the car cost).

Tesla's pricing assumption here ($1/mile) is conservative, especially in a Tesla-first-mover scenario. Could be much higher. But let's use $200K.

2/5
What happens if Tesla produces ~5M robotaxis/year (~0.3% of cars on the road), which seems plausible in 5-7 years?

$200K NPV * 5M / year = $1 TRILLION of NPV created...

PER YEAR.

Put any kind of multiple on this, and it's easy to see value creation in the MANY trillions.

3/5
Read 5 tweets

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