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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
May 22, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Tomorrow (or rather Sunday when the votes are counted) will mostly demonstrate once again that the country is completely split on Brexit, but the vote on one side will be concentrated, on the other split several ways. Not only that...
These are the Conservative MPs who can't even think of any kind of compromise Brexit, and this can obviously be supplemented by others in Government, though not necessarily the tory leadership candidates who may say one thing and mean another... buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Then there are the Labour, Lib Dem, Change UK, Green, SNP MPs who are realistically not going to vote for any Brexit unless there's a referendum. Not a majority on their own, but put them together with the no-compromise folk...?
There's realistically only two directions of travel available to the next PM. Either a no-deal v remain referendum (justified on account of no-deal not being the official position of leave at the last one), or a soft Brexit Norway or Turkey style.
A new PM could try an election to win a Parliamentary majority for a no-deal Brexit, but there's little suggestion from polls that they could succeed. And frankly we're just delaying the pain further that way.
No Brexit unicorns are coming to rescue us. This PM eventually vaguely met reality, but in such a way as to mean she couldn't get a majority. Key question is how soon the next PM meets reality, and how they build support for their choice once they do / end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 25
In we go... and just a few pages in, the relief is that there are none of the obvious errors than so often undermine UK accounts of Brexit - at likely cost to the sanity of @ShippersUnbound he appears on top of the subject...

Next UK negotiator perhaps...? Image
10 pages in and the level of haplessness described within the UK government system with regard to negotiations in 2017 is off the scale. I know we've improved since then. But equally, I doubt enough lessons have been learnt.
60 pages of systemic failure. There are probably many lessons to learn, but the two most obvious would be, listen to people who understand the EU, and know your objectives. Are either widely acknowledged in the UK as yet?
Read 16 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 25
UK trade news! Canada have proved persistently tough negotiating partners for the UK, and this comes as little surprise. The existing replica of the EU agreement is presumed to hold for now, but must also raise a question on CPTPP ratification.
Worth noting that UK refusal to change food standards has been an issue for Canada, while UK access to dairy is an inevitable issue the other way. But still a blow to the government's trade story.
At this stage we have no update on Canada's approach to making tea...
Read 7 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 19
Good piece on Northern Ireland. Clearly the DUP take some blame for refusing to return to Stormont. But their position is pretty predictable, and the UK government has consistently failed in efforts to change that, digging the hole deeper as they go. politico.eu/article/no-gov…
Doesn't seem like the government ever had a Plan B for the entirely predictable (and widely predicted) situation in which the DUP rejected the Windsor Framework. They were so confident that they had negotiated brilliantly (heard someone involved bragging exactly this).
Can't help thinking I've heard this before (and yesterday's version was there wouldn't be any agreement for a long time), but let's see if the DUP are prepared to suddenly fold on their stated reasons for not being in Stormont...
Read 5 tweets

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