Thread by @fascinatorfun

1/. I’ve been thinking about the BXP and @ForChange_Now

Firstly, for all the talk of BXP being just “6 weeks old” this really is not true.

Unlike @ForChange_Now is has been brewing for years and has had a LOT of money and behind the scenes prep going.

https://twitter.com/turloughc/status/1125805034015477760?s=21

2/. The name was reserved way back in 2016.

BXP had a slick SM and Campaign operation behind it and some really quite remarkable enhancement and amplification of their SM campaign.

Suspicious amplification? Yes.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1132232816329199616?s=21

3/. The same cannot be said for @ForChange_Now

They left it late to jump ship and to put in place the infrastructure necessary to campaign effectively, secure names and think hard about strategy.

It contains MPs who have been ardent Remain and PV supporters.

4/. No one could deny that the likes of @Anna_Soubry @sarahwollaston @heidiallen75 @ChukaUmunna @ChrisLeslieMP @MikeGapes too name just a few have been committed and eloquent campaigners for the Remain cause.

They made the LP Front Bench hesitate in pressing Brexit.

5/. They instilled hope in many and identified some good MEP candidates such as @gavinesler and @JMPSimor.

But they miscalculated.

They believed @LibDems were over.

They miscalculated on the importance of a solid membership, infrastructure and experience in local Govt.

6/. They rejected a merger and made an appalling error in developing a strategy designed to steal LD members, voters and destroy the party.

That really fertilised a gritty determination to prove they had miscalculated.

A very big fight back and resulted in a loss of support.

7/. If I am honest I am not sure they had done the D’Hondt maths before they decided to field MEP candidates.

Did they realise how much a 3rd (in England) Remain Party would split the vote just enough to cost seats

8/. SO in both NE and Wales the CHUK vote was just enough to ensure the BXP got an extra seat that could have gone to the LDs.

I don’t think that was their intention and I suspect they will feel sorry for it today.

They simply miscalculated and were over confident.

What now?

9/. I understand that there is a difference of opinion between @Anna_soubry and @heidiallen75 and @sarahwollaston as to the best way to manage the dilemma that was evident even before the race started.

I am not sure what the other @ForChange_Now MPs’ opinions were.

10/. What close attention to D’Hondt would have shown is there really isn’t room for a 3rd Remain Party.

Also that in the areas with a small number of seats (eg NW, Wales and maybe East Midlands) making strategic political party alliances between Remain parties is critical.

11/. Trying to rely on tactical voting is too risky.

Once one allows for the reality, that most people - when presented with choice - will vote for their preferred party (which is fair enough) and it will only be those who waiver who can be persuaded to a tactical vote.

12/. This makes deciding how to advise on how to place a tactical vote a very high risk strategy unless the margin to gain an extra Remain seat is small and obvious.

The advice could just as easily backfire.

That should be “NE” not NW!