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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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May 28, 2019 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Brexit mega-thread: everything you could ever want to know about Brexit, in bite-sized chunks...

NOTE: each post in this thread is the start of its own thread. So please click into anything of interest.

1) Brexit is already causing massive damage
2) Here's the truth about what trade on WTO terms would be like (hint: we'd be the only country in the world reliant purely on the WTO)
3) The map problem, i.e. why we can't simply substitute trade with our neighbours and trade with far away places
4) The truth about Brexit, and what leaving the EU "club" would really mean...
5) "Brexit changes everything" - an open letter to MPs and other politicians wringing their hands about not being able to tackle the big challenges we face because Brexit keeps getting in the way
6) How Brexit puts the UK haulage industry at risk
7) There is no transition period in a no deal situation. There just isn't. But many politicians still seem confused...
8) An honest, straightforward comparison of Theresa May's deal vs no deal and vs remaining in the EU
9) Where Brexit will hurt most: a brief look at the likely impact of Brexit across different parts of the UK
10) A comparison of the UK and the EU's relative negoting strength.
11) Putting a persistent myth to bed: why Brexit is nothing like Y2K

• • •

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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 6
Before Brexit...
- EU Trade: super easy.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

Since Brexit...
- EU Trade: hard.
- Rest of the World Trade: hard.

The difficulty gap may have "narrowed", but not in a way that benefits businesses at all. Trade is on average harder than before Brexit.
Does it encourage firms to consider trading more outside the EU?

Maybe - but only because they'll have a lousy experience everywhere.

It's like raising the price of apples from £10 to £20, keeping pears at £20. Sells more pears? Maybe. But overall, consumers end up paying more.
A smart country would have tried to figure out how to make hard trade with the rest of the world easier.

A dumb country decided instead to make super easy trade with the EU as hard as trade with the rest of the world.

Welcome to Brexit Britain, where brain cells come to die.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 6
Kirstie Allsopp (bought 1st property age 21) claims young people should fritter less to get on the housing ladder.

HOWEVER...

Average House Price (Nationwide)
- 1992: £50,168
- 2021: £253,113

BOE Inflation Calculator
£50,168 in 1992 = £110,472.43 in 2021

Aha! Penny drops.
Another way of looking at it...

Kirstie Allsopp said her job paid £11,500 a year at the time she bought her first property.

That would be £25,323.57 in 2021 money.

£50,168 is the equivalent of 4.36x her 1992 salary.

But £253,113 is 9.99x her nominal 2021 equivalent salary.
Simply put, a given house is more than twice as unaffordable today (everything else being equal) than in 1992.

Quite amazing that someone who has lived and breathed the property sector for decades seems oblivious to the above differential.

It's hardly rocket science.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 4
The Brexit effect, hurting a business badly.

(Problem is EU students can no longer travel on ID cards because the UK now requires passports, but kids don't need passports because they can go all over the EU on IDs. Catch-22.)
Same problem, different business...
Same problem, different business...
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 3
Look at the scam in this Treasury press release.

They've called the £200 loan towards energy bills a rebate. It *isn't* a rebate because consumers must repay it in 5 instalments.

Then in the next paragraph there's a council tax rebate that *is* a rebate.
gov.uk/government/new…
It's also referred to as a discount.

Can you imagine if Tesco or Amazon applied the same logic?

We'll give you £20 off your shopping now, but you'll owe us 5 legally binding payments of £4.

You'd be livid if they tried to claim that represented a discount.

It's a 0% APR loan.
And here's the really devious part: the Tories are buying voter goodwill now using money that will largely need repaying after the next GE.

So if Labour win, they'll be left with the ticking time-bomb of Tory debts, and a legally binding obligation for *consumers* to repay them.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 2
According to the Daily Mail, the Tories have indicated they plan to plunge us all into the dark on the pandemic in April by giving up publishing daily stats.

This on a day that saw more than 500 deaths announced.

Could they gaslight us any harder? Genuinely hard to think how. Image
The whole article is grim. Apparently Boris Johnson plans to bin every single protective measure on March 24, including the requirement to self-isolate if you test positive.

How can the several million extremely vulnerable people ever be safe after that?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
The excuse given is that it's becoming "like the flu" and we don't shut down the whole country over that.

A) Covid killed more people in 2 years than flu did in the last decade.

B) Flu is very seasonal. We've had a high covid death rate since August, with no sign of slackening.
Read 6 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
Feb 2
There's a paradox at the heart of Brexit.

Leaving the EU saves the UK government our membership fee.

It costs individuals and companies much much more than that saved fee. But they're bearing the cost in a distributed way. (Less trade, higher prices, less choice of work etc.)
So the UK government's balance sheet improves by the value of the EU membership fee that's no longer being paid.

But every single one of us and the organisations we work for are effectively being stealth-taxed by Brexit much more than the saving recorded by the UK government.
The UK government can semi-truthfully say "there's more money for us to spend after Brexit" (though the amounts it quotes are wholly fanciful, and don't account for its own extra costs because of Brexit).

And yet as a nation we're still MUCH poorer as a result.
Read 7 tweets

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