ive come to care an awful lot about my distant ancestors after having kids let me work out how much those ancestors probably worried over my well-being without ever knowing me and struggled their entire lives to build a world to pass down for my benefit
every day I try to keep my shit together and care for my dependents and think about how my parents had to do all of this too, how would they have tried to manage this, how on earth did they do it, how did their parents do it, on and on backward through the generations
here's a fun one. i have mayflower ancestors. their first winter, something like 45 of 102 passengers died. ghastly
but all the dead were adults. they managed to get all the kids through alive.
miracle? no. you can bet the adults let themselves starve to make this happen.
israel is NOT an ally of america. theyre aggressively trying to capture our strategic ashkenazi resources. is that how an ally behaves?
a true America First policy would be ANTIZIONIST
jews dont belong in israel. they belong in new york and its time to come home
the eigenrobot administration is prepared to agree to a population swap of 100 american muslims repatriated to arabia for each israeli returned to us
im also prepared to accept a "Two State' solution wherein palestinians from gaza and the west bank will be resettled in michigan territory redesignated "new palestine" and expelled from the union. in exchange the US will accept all current Israeli territory as a new 50th state
but yes im sorry the credibility revolution was a mistake and economics has long since abandoned careful empirical work for atheoretical regression slop that it massively overinterprets to mindlessly support political claims
my advice to you is if you ever want to ruin a party full of applied econometricians talking about the effect of immigration on native employment, bring up the mariel boatlift after everyone is several drinks in
you may find result enlightening and you'll certainly have some fun
fun inside story
when seattle implemented a $15/hr minimum wage they asked some ppl at UW to do a study of the employment effects
the big paper dropped in 2017 and found huge disemployment effects
so the city immediately disavowed it and ran to amherst for a rebuttal
we can easily exploit this with secondary markets in H1B workers. all we need to do is buy up 63 H1Bs for a guaranteed successful IPO. vcs are leaving trillion dollar bills on the ground here
its a reasonable microeconomics paper with a plausible identification method and lots of regressions that are highly suggestive if you dont think about them too much
(are patents actually predictive of ipo success? are the h1bs producing these patents themselves? lol who knows)
the literature review provides some complementary evidence, some of which is interesting context and some of which flatly contradicts the claim tabarrok would like to make
This dynamic is _not_ obviously gainfully-modeled as IPD. Instead of acting simultaneously, one agent (here representing something like a D/R coalition) decides to act in each round.
Who acts next round is nondeterministic and may be affected by actions this round.
More things to consider in this model:
1. If party institutions are ahistorically weak, which I think they are now, discounting of future rounds ought to be treated as relatively intense, which makes commitment more difficult