CVC Group AG Profile picture
Jul 15, 2019 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Thanks @lorakolodny. This type of criminal behavior needs to be revealed. Wish I could say it's shocking but it fits a pattern, though it's still shocking to me! Image
This is so @elonmusk...

"including making fast fixes to parts with electrical tape"

Off-record imagined Elon quote: "they only paid $50k, we're losing money on every damn car, my stock keeps going down, just tape it up. My worshippers are total morons" Image
Talk about a low goddamn bar...

"Tesla also said that the company’s first-pass yields at Fremont are higher than ever"

New game, add "in a shitty outdoor tent" to anything @Tesla spokespeople say:

"We work hard to create a work environment that is as safe, fair and fun as possible" ...
Nice...

"Carlos Aranda says he personally visited WalMart multiple times to buy the tape and other items for production associates."

Read it all from Lora...solid reporting.

cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tes…
"A “triple cam” holds three cameras that allow the vehicle to see the road, traffic lights, lane markings and obstacles ahead. If triple cam connections loosen or break, some of Tesla’s safety features-like Sentry mode, AP, AEB or full self-driving — may fail"
Doubt that holds up in court bros

"Tesla said many of the parts that they use in the Model 3 come with electrical tape on them from suppliers, and showed CNBC photographs of some factory-taped parts."
OMFG, "factory tape" ???
Image
I guess once you're already making cars in a tent, who the gives a shit, amirite? Image
"Elon, we're having a lot of issues with water getting into the #Model3 during tests."

@elonmusk: "Get rid of the tests and fuel up my G650 bro" Image
This was one of the best (if not the best) thorough, detailed exposes on why has so many quality complaints (nevermind no infrastructure to fix). Anyone wondering why #teslaqualityissues just needs to read this and FFS don't buy one! cc @scot_work
cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tes…
@scot_work I can't finish without acknowledging that other great reporters have also helped in identifying the manufacturing shortcomings that @Tesla makes standard practice. Great job Lora and others (you know who you are, I don't want to leave anyone out!)

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More from @CVCResearch

Feb 29
$SOUN has been on quite the tear lately but has anybody actually looked at this thing closely?

They grew revenue 19% y/y in Q323, but that included a 1x rev recc from a contract modification with a Korean customer (Hyundai probably). Absent this, revenue was down -29% y/y in Q3 Image
And $SOUN RPO has been steadily trending down since they came public. And we're supposed to believe this is a growth company? c'mon, be serious

Valuation is at 25x a CY24 revenue estimate that they won't hit. This is silly nonsense. Image
$SOUN missed on Q4 Revenue ($17.1M vs $17.7M) & EBITDA (-$3.7M vs -$0.6M expected) but introduces a new, even faker "backlog" methodology so they could pump that number, lol ok Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
I think $VMEO is a long here. Just posted a writeup to VIC, for those who have access:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/VIMEO_INC…
I tried out the product too 🤣
$VMEO launches new AI-powered video hub, Vimeo Central 👍

vimeo.com/solutions/vime…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 5
I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years. Image
$BABA has been the most aggressive on buybacks, maybe they get more aggressive.

Hugely accretive here:
$71 stock
$30/sh cash & inv
$19/sh LT investments

$8+ T12 EPS (8x P/E)
$10+ T12 FCF/sh (4x EV/FCF)

Up the buyback from $10B->$20B-$25B/yr and the valuation will fix itself
$YUMC plans to double its buybacks y/y in CY24 from $613M to $1.25B.

Need to see a lot more of this in China. $BABA next, buyback $10B/yr->$20B ? 🤔 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19, 2022
Thread on why I'm adding more to my already large $UCTT position here based on the ~15% pullback this week and a number of positive updates out late last week.
First, $UCTT updated its Target Model last week for the first time in several years:
Two things on this update: 1) it was overdue as $UCTT was already exceeding the top end of the prior Target Model, 2) between higher revenue & margin assumptions in the update, the high end EBIT target was just raised by 167%!
Next, I now believe CY22 consensus numbers for $UCTT to be wildly low! Industry CY22 WFE growth expectations have moved up from HSD to low-mid teens over last few mths. On a calendarized basis, the street now has $LRCX & $AMAT growing top line ~10% & ~12%, respectively, in CY22.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 21, 2021
The new $AAPL MacBook Pros are the first to feature mini-LED display technology. Very relevant to $KLIC

theverge.com/2021/10/18/227…
Mini-LED technology is nascent, but growth projections are bonkers. $AAPL continuing to move forward with mLED adoption on schedule is a big deal. They first intro'd mLED in the iPad Pro in April '21.

theverge.com/2021/4/21/2239…
Those bonkers mini-LED growth projections? 86% Revenue CAGR projected for mini-LED through 2026! Gonna need a lot of tools for that! $KLIC

globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18, 2021
Couple things from the SEC report out today on $GME trading. First chart here shows buying by "traders identified as having a large short position in GME" in red vs total buying in blue. SEC essentially concluded that because the total buying in blue is so much larger than... 1/5 Image
buying by known shorts (in red) that the impact of short covering was relatively small (their language is below). I think this may be misguided bc 1) the largest spike in red buying coincided very well with the late January initial rip in $GME, and... 2/5 Image
2) because so much of overall trading volume is passive (heard numbers like 80%-90%), the "small fraction" that was short covering may very well have represented a much more meaningful fraction of active market buying. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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