$SOUN has been on quite the tear lately but has anybody actually looked at this thing closely?

They grew revenue 19% y/y in Q323, but that included a 1x rev recc from a contract modification with a Korean customer (Hyundai probably). Absent this, revenue was down -29% y/y in Q3 And $SOUN RPO has been steadily trending down since they came public. And we're supposed to believe this is a growth company? c'mon, be serious

Valuation is at 25x a CY24 revenue estimate that they won't hit. This is silly nonsense.

I think $VMEO is a long here. Just posted a writeup to VIC, for those who have access:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/VIMEO_INC…

https://twitter.com/deusexdividend/status/1760432233213841893

I tried out the product too 🤣

I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years. $BABA has been the most aggressive on buybacks, maybe they get more aggressive.

Hugely accretive here:
$71 stock
$30/sh cash & inv
$19/sh LT investments

$8+ T12 EPS (8x P/E)
$10+ T12 FCF/sh (4x EV/FCF)

Up the buyback from $10B->$20B-$25B/yr and the valuation will fix itself

Thread on why I'm adding more to my already large $UCTT position here based on the ~15% pullback this week and a number of positive updates out late last week.
First, $UCTT updated its Target Model last week for the first time in several years: Two things on this update: 1) it was overdue as $UCTT was already exceeding the top end of the prior Target Model, 2) between higher revenue & margin assumptions in the update, the high end EBIT target was just raised by 167%!

The new $AAPL MacBook Pros are the first to feature mini-LED display technology. Very relevant to $KLIC

theverge.com/2021/10/18/227… Mini-LED technology is nascent, but growth projections are bonkers. $AAPL continuing to move forward with mLED adoption on schedule is a big deal. They first intro'd mLED in the iPad Pro in April '21.

theverge.com/2021/4/21/2239…

Couple things from the SEC report out today on $GME trading. First chart here shows buying by "traders identified as having a large short position in GME" in red vs total buying in blue. SEC essentially concluded that because the total buying in blue is so much larger than... 1/5 buying by known shorts (in red) that the impact of short covering was relatively small (their language is below). I think this may be misguided bc 1) the largest spike in red buying coincided very well with the late January initial rip in $GME, and... 2/5

??

I think semicap names have now gotten oversold on the SMIC news
1) nothing official yet
2) Even if implemented & extended to other domestic-owned China fabs it's no more than 15% of WFE market
1/3
3) Bloomberg story notes a "special license" may be required to ship to SMIC, i.e a there's possibly a loophole that big guys etc can figure out
4) The US semicap industry (big/important/deep pockets) and will likely lobby hard against this
2/3

Question for -twit:

Why was Q320 guidance so weak? I realize they guided to ~13% y/y revenue growth which was slightly above.

The USD vs EUR and DXY are each down in the ballpark of 5% y/y in Q3

48% of revenue is international

I estimate guidance implies just 10% y/y They had a ~$5M revenue headwind in Q220 on a y/y basis

In Q3, however, with the USD tanking that should flip to a $10M+ revenue tailwind

So I'm arriving at just 10% constant currency revenue growth in Q320 (based on guidance) which is just awful...

So cut their fall semester (2H20) revenue guidance from pre-covid levels by $10M, or 2%

At $4275/sem for room&board and 20k on-campus students that's a bit over $50M a semester in r&b revenue/profit to ..a $10M cut basically just covers the 3 wks campus will be closed But this effectively assumes an otherwise full campus.

I think they've guided incredibly optimistically, but basically had to.

They are a for-profit entity that wants as many students back as possible.

is a "tech" company whose revenues were down more Y/Y than many restaurant chains 😂

-42%

-30%
-38%
-40%

Good thing it trades at 10x Sales & pays out 30% of revs in SBC so investors know it's one of "dem tech stonks"
Otherwise, could you tell? 🧐 "Alright, look, it wasn't the quarter we were looking for"

- CEO wrapping up the Q2 call just now

So added $500M+ in market cap today because Lordstown Motors got marked at $1.6B (sort of) by a SPAC today. owns 10% of LMC.

While the total pro forma equity valuation of the newCo is $1.64B, current Lordstown shareholders will only own 48.2% of the newCo, 's actual stake in the new entity, , is being valued at just $79M, as owns 10% of 48% of the new entity or 4.8%

largest holder have sold over 5M shares, almost half their position, in the last month. Sales began 75% below the current price *has

Semiconductor related thread.

In the last month, there have been two bills introduced in the Senate that each propose $25B in subsidies for the US semiconductor industry.

Both have bipartisan support. The details of the bills are similar.

TL;DR helicopter money for semis
On June 25, 8 (R&D) senators introduced the AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT. $25B in subsidies:

- $15B for fabs
- $5B more that is specifically for defense related semi fabs
- $5B for R&D grants, including $2B specifically to defense


semiconductors.org/american-found…

Nice Friday night Form 4 dump from 's CEO.

He amended his 10b5 plan yesterday to sell 8% of his holdings (sale was also yesterday) 🤔 Company pre'd positive Q2 revenue in mid-June, but haven't updated since

I'm fairly sure Colin is in possession of MNPI rn, namely full results for the quarter ended 10 days ago, and some idea how Q3 is looking

This used to be illegal when @SEC_Enforcement did enforcement

Biggest MAX order cancellation to date: 92 more

Boeing has now lost 13% of their their pre-grounding MAX backlog

MAX backlog now below 3900...far cry from the one-time 5k

https://twitter.com/Jamie_Freed/status/1277716886218772482

*MAX backlog peaked at 4708 in 2018, not quite 5k

Long 1/

cc: @RobinhoodApp

🙃 Market cap $350M; modest net cash position
$6B in revenue, 30% GM
Ecommerce 75%+ of revenue recently; have replaced most in-store sales with online/curbside pickup during covid
Console cycle EOY will drive a return to growth
Can do $200M+ in fwd 12 mo EBITDA; $125M+ FCF

All the short reports suggest 70%-90% of revenue/students are fake. But if you're going to fake revenue/students, you have to fake employees as well, right?

TL;DR: Linked numbers suggest overstates employee count by ~10x!

https://twitter.com/kung_fat/status/1264777455845302272

Here is MRQ Revenue/Employee for (based on FY19 20-F employee count).

While is somewhat higher than peers, they're all roughly in the same ballpark.

is down today IMO due to higher churn, reduced CF guidance, and evidence that they're getting even more aggressive on rev recc, but they highlighted a number of trends that provide a bullish read-through for
1/ 1) noted a picked in their IFP business due to higher unemployment. has a much larger IFP business than both in $$s and as a % of revenue
2) is seeing evidence of an acceleration from in-person insurance sales to online/phone in this environment
2/

Thread on @muddywatersre $EHTH call, and competitor $BFYT. No position in $EHTH. Long $BFYT.

After reviewing MW's report and the latest 10-Ks from both $EHTH and $BFYT, I've concluded that the $EHTH short case *may* have merit but even if it does, it doesn't apply to $BFYT. The crux of the MW report is that $EHTH recognizes 3+ years of revenue when they sign up a new Medicare Advantage (MA) customer. This upfront rev recc is based on management estimates of customer life. MW estimates that this rev recc is overly aggressive.
$BFYT

Love here. They will BENEFIT from the current environment:

- Sadly, higher unemployment combined with Trump administration not re-opening ACA exchanges means more folks will have to go with short-term medical plans. Being de-emphasized, but still sells STM.
1/ - Also, Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, which is 's core focus, can now offer Telehealth to all (beginning in 2020) vs previously only being allowed for rural MA beneficiaries. This is per a change made by CMS. (h/t @CitronResearch)

medcitynews.com/2019/04/cms-ex…


2/