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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Jul 31, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
While the headline ADP number "beat", hardly anyone will point out that the growth rate decelerated to a 21 month low. #RateofChange Image
The growth rate in "goods" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 27 month low. Image
The growth rate in "manufacturing" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 24 month low. Image
The growth rate in "construction" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 79 month low. Image

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Apr 21
New residential building permits is one of the best leading indicators of recessions.

Here's how you can easily make it even better.

(And what it's saying now)...

1/
Building permits are a great leading indicator because they are an early step in the residential construction process.

We know that residential construction is a critical part of the business cycle, so getting an early lead on this is important.

2/ Image
Big declines in building permits lead recessions because it anticipates declines in construction activity and therefore, residential construction related employment.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Apr 9
Tariffs on, tariffs off.

No one knows the next policy move.

But here's the economic reality of how tariffs impact the economy and why they should be used carefully...🧵

1/
The arguments or the stated goals of tariff policy are clear – protecting current American jobs from unfair foreign competition, reshoring manufacturing plants and high-paying jobs, and closing large trade deficits.

2/
However, the economic reality of tariffs is unlikely to achieve these goals for the following reasons.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 31
The labor market is holding together on the surface, but concerning details appear under the hood.

No quitting and no hiring, but also no firing yet.

Here's the real story behind the US labor market.

1/
To start, the health and vibrance of the labor market comes from the goods economy of construction and manufacturing.

So this is where we focus.

If you need a primer on why, check this out:

2/
When we look at the BLS employment report, the combination of construction & manufacturing continues to increase.

If these cyclical jobs were declining, that would be a major step towards recession.

So far, they are increasing, which is a good thing.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 17
Real retail sales are now lower than the pre-pandemic trend line.

Real sales volume has moved sideways for over two years!

Is the consumer in trouble?

1/ Image
Retail sales are reported in nominal dollars, or including inflation.

Historically, retail sales increased at a 4.2% annualized pace.

About 2% of that was price, and 2% was unit growth.

2/ Image
The COVID demand shock happened, and retail sales exploded, rising 17% above trend by the summer of 2022.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 6
Q1 GDP growth is estimated at -2.4% per the Atlanta Fed.

Is a recession hitting now?

Here's what's actually going on 👇

1/ Image
First, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is a rolling estimate that gets better with more data.

So at the start of a quarter, the model is mostly estimates and the GDP output is not accurate.

As the estimated data gets replaced with real numbers, the model is more accurate.

2/
Secondly, GDP is comprised of four major components:

1) Personal consumption
2) Investment
3) Government Spending
4) Net exports

A recession is driven by categories 1 & 2.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 22
Durable goods are the most high-powered, high-velocity area of personal spending.

This includes:

- Motor vehicles & parts
- Home Furnishings
- Recreational Vehicles

We still haven't fully reversed the surge of durables spending after the pandemic.

Here's why it matters.

1/ Image
The economy has four primary categories:

- Private consumption
- Private investment
- Net exports
- Government spending

2/ Image
The "Duncan Leading Index" involves tracking three narrow segments of the economy:

- Durable goods consumption
- Residential investment
- Non-residential investment

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets

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