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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Jul 31, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
While the headline ADP number "beat", hardly anyone will point out that the growth rate decelerated to a 21 month low. #RateofChange Image
The growth rate in "goods" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 27 month low. Image
The growth rate in "manufacturing" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 24 month low. Image
The growth rate in "construction" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 79 month low. Image

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Dec 16
New housing inventory is at the highest level since 2008.

But that is only one piece of the puzzle.

Here's the full story. Image
The single-family housing market is made up of new construction homes and existing homes.

Most people interact with the existing market because it is much larger and because not all regions of the country have a lot of construction.

2/11
Inventory in the new construction market is at the highest level since 2008.

Inventory in the existing market is still below pre-pandemic levels.

(For new inventory, remember this can still be "under construction.")

3/11 Image
Read 12 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Dec 10
I analyzed the top 10 sectors of the labor market.

These are the two most important.

Thread.

1/
The labor market is the most important component of the economy since job losses are a required part of the recessionary process.

2/
Not all sectors of the labor market are equally important, and the biggest sectors are not necessarily the key swing factors.

For example, it’s common to suggest that manufacturing is no longer important because it has become a small component of the labor market.

3/
Read 23 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Oct 9
The residential construction sector still has some backlogs, but we estimate that things will return to a normal state in 2-3 months.

1/6 Image
Residential construction is essential to the US economy, significantly influencing GDP, inflation, employment, and Fed policy.

Major backlogs accumulated in 2021 & 2022 allowed residential employment to avoid contraction despite a major shift in monetary policy.

2/6
In 2022, only 8% of new home inventory was completed. This represented the largest distortion ever seen in the new home sector.

Today, 22% of new home inventory is completed, which compares to a historically normal level of ~24%.

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Oct 1
Several labor data points were released ahead of Friday's Employment Situation Report.

Total job openings ticked higher in August. The downtrend in job openings remains firm - while still above 2019 levels.

The quits rate declined, a negative for future wage growth.

1/6 Image
In the September ISM Manufacturing report, the employment component fell to 43.9.

The percentage of respondents reporting higher employment fell to 8, the lowest level since April 2009 (ex. COVID).

2/6 Image
ISM Chair Tim Fiore said, "This sentiment was supported in September by the approximately 1-to-1.5 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments."

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 23
Real growth, measured by the big-4 coincident indicators, has been trending sideways for two years.

Stock prices have trended higher nominally, but priced in gold have trended sideways, mirroring the trend in real growth. Image
Small cap stocks have underperformed the trend in real growth, continuing in a downtrend since the 2021 peak. Image
The near-perfect sideways trend in real growth has been extremely unusual.

The economy always cycles, so eventually, the trend will break one way or the other... Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 19
Initial jobless claims remain extremely tame on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

The 2024 path is tracking almost exactly along the average of 2023, 2019, 2018, and 2017.

1/4 Image
The 52-week average of jobless claims edged higher this week and is higher than the cycle low-point in February 2023 but has trended down most of 2024.

The insured unemployment rate, however, while low, continues to edge higher slowly.

2/4 Image
Layoffs remain low, but hiring is very weak, which is consistent with the initial increase in unemployment.

The 52wk average of initial claims is 3.9% off the cycle low.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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