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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Jul 31, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
While the headline ADP number "beat", hardly anyone will point out that the growth rate decelerated to a 21 month low. #RateofChange Image
The growth rate in "goods" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 27 month low. Image
The growth rate in "manufacturing" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 24 month low. Image
The growth rate in "construction" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 79 month low. Image

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 22
Durable goods are the most high-powered, high-velocity area of personal spending.

This includes:

- Motor vehicles & parts
- Home Furnishings
- Recreational Vehicles

We still haven't fully reversed the surge of durables spending after the pandemic.

Here's why it matters.

1/ Image
The economy has four primary categories:

- Private consumption
- Private investment
- Net exports
- Government spending

2/ Image
The "Duncan Leading Index" involves tracking three narrow segments of the economy:

- Durable goods consumption
- Residential investment
- Non-residential investment

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 12
The heavy truck sector is at a critical point.

Right now, truck sales are stable, but truck production is tumbling.

Here’s the story in the truck sector, why you should follow it, and why it matters.

1/
One of the most important economic indicators is vehicle sales.

The economy runs on housing and vehicles because both have a major consumption and production cycle.

These are also large, financed purchases, meaning they are highly influenced by monetary policy.

2/
This makes housing and vehicles highly responsive to changes in interest rates, often serving as a leading indicator.

We recently covered housing as a leading indicator through new home sales.



3/
Read 17 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 6
New home sales are one of the best leading indicators of the broader economy.

Right now, new home sales are at a critical juncture.

Here’s what’s happening and why it matters for the rest of the economy.

1/
New home sales tend to peak and roll over before the broader economy enters a downturn.

This happened in 2005 before the housing crisis.

2/ Image
It also happened in advance of 1991, signaling a slowdown before the recession officially began.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 4
Will AI really replace all the jobs?

If AI is truly transformative, we should see an explosion in worker productivity.

Is this happening? Has this ever happened before?

Let's see...

1/
The best metric to look at is real GDP per worker.

This is different from real GDP per capita, which includes people who don’t work.

Real GDP per worker measures how much output the average worker can produce.

2/ Image
If AI was a paradigm shift like it's being sold in some cases, we'd see an explosion in real GDP per worker.

Real GDP per worker is about $150,000.

If we could do the same work with millions fewer people this number would explode rather than creep up 1%-2% per year.

3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jan 25
The Fed hiked rates faster than ever, but the economy hasn't responded like normal.

Is something broken? Not quite.

The answer (like usual) lies in housing.

Here’s what's going on and why it matters...

1/
Leading indicators, like building permits, show where growth and employment are headed.

They're not magic—they’re mechanical.

You need a permit to start construction.

2/
Historically, when permits dropped, construction and employment quickly followed.

But after the pandemic, the lag between a decline in permits and its impact on growth/employment exploded.

Why?

3/
Read 11 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jan 22
Conceptually, the quits rate is a leading indicator of labor market conditions.

1/ Image
A high quits rate means employees are confident quitting because they believe finding a new, better-paying job will be easy.

2/
A low quits rate signals caution. Employees hesitate to leave their jobs, sensing the labor market is cooling, hiring is slower, and opportunities for better pay are limited.

The quits rate essentially reflects what workers think about the hiring environment.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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