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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Jul 31, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
While the headline ADP number "beat", hardly anyone will point out that the growth rate decelerated to a 21 month low. #RateofChange Image
The growth rate in "goods" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 27 month low. Image
The growth rate in "manufacturing" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 24 month low. Image
The growth rate in "construction" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 79 month low. Image

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Oct 9
The residential construction sector still has some backlogs, but we estimate that things will return to a normal state in 2-3 months.

1/6 Image
Residential construction is essential to the US economy, significantly influencing GDP, inflation, employment, and Fed policy.

Major backlogs accumulated in 2021 & 2022 allowed residential employment to avoid contraction despite a major shift in monetary policy.

2/6
In 2022, only 8% of new home inventory was completed. This represented the largest distortion ever seen in the new home sector.

Today, 22% of new home inventory is completed, which compares to a historically normal level of ~24%.

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Oct 1
Several labor data points were released ahead of Friday's Employment Situation Report.

Total job openings ticked higher in August. The downtrend in job openings remains firm - while still above 2019 levels.

The quits rate declined, a negative for future wage growth.

1/6 Image
In the September ISM Manufacturing report, the employment component fell to 43.9.

The percentage of respondents reporting higher employment fell to 8, the lowest level since April 2009 (ex. COVID).

2/6 Image
ISM Chair Tim Fiore said, "This sentiment was supported in September by the approximately 1-to-1.5 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments."

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 23
Real growth, measured by the big-4 coincident indicators, has been trending sideways for two years.

Stock prices have trended higher nominally, but priced in gold have trended sideways, mirroring the trend in real growth. Image
Small cap stocks have underperformed the trend in real growth, continuing in a downtrend since the 2021 peak. Image
The near-perfect sideways trend in real growth has been extremely unusual.

The economy always cycles, so eventually, the trend will break one way or the other... Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 19
Initial jobless claims remain extremely tame on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

The 2024 path is tracking almost exactly along the average of 2023, 2019, 2018, and 2017.

1/4 Image
The 52-week average of jobless claims edged higher this week and is higher than the cycle low-point in February 2023 but has trended down most of 2024.

The insured unemployment rate, however, while low, continues to edge higher slowly.

2/4 Image
Layoffs remain low, but hiring is very weak, which is consistent with the initial increase in unemployment.

The 52wk average of initial claims is 3.9% off the cycle low.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 10
How Far Behind The Curve Is The Federal Reserve?

Plotting the change in Federal Reserve interest rate policy before and after a trigger of the Sahm Rule.

Thread.

1/9
The Sahm rule was triggered in the July Employment Situation Report.

Historically, the Sahm rule has been a slightly lagging indicator, meaning the trigger dates occur after a recession has already started.

2/9
In this thread, we won’t address whether a recession has started or not but rather look at historical changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy around historical Sahm rule trigger dates.

3/9
Read 10 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Sep 2
Q2 GDP was boosted by equipment investment, specifically transportation equipment. Image
We've previously discussed how important these cyclical sectors are in driving the ebbs and flows of the overall Business Cycle. Image
Auto equipment investment has fallen out of sync with the other cyclical sectors, a unique feature of this cycle as the auto sector was the most badly impacted by supply chain issues in 2021 and 2022.
Read 5 tweets

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