Matters looking rather ropey in the Brexit negotiations. There’s apparently now nothing substantive planned until Biarritz G7 meeting at end of month. You’d expect the sort of briefings emerging from Brussels tonight, and a pinch of salt required etc BUT...
... sending the message that they have interpreted the new negotiator Frost’s meetings as consistent only with leaving with No Deal and calling a GE.. “they can’t climb down from this”...
They recognise that the UK Government is now trying to isolate and put personal pressure on Irish leader Leo Varadkar. So they purposely sent a message of full support for the Irish at the EU Council debrief... and for the backstop etc.
Understand some key officials rearranged their holidays in anticipation of some sort of proper talks in August - but nothing substantive happening till G7 at least. That’s pretty much 5/14 weeks before Brexit deadline under Johnson administration gone.
No 10 say: “PM wants to meet EU leaders & negotiate a new deal – one that abolishes the anti-democratic backstop. We will throw ourselves into negotiations with the greatest energy & spirit of friendship and we hope EU will rethink its current refusal to make any changes to WA”..
No 10 continued... “The fact is the Withdrawal Agreement has rejected by Parliament three times and will not pass in its current form so – if the EU wants a deal – it needs to change its stance. Until then, we will continue to prepare to leave the EU on 31 October”...
There’s more to say here - but it’s late and I’ll blog about it for tomorrow on the website - so watch this space.
Here is the blog reflecting what I’ve heard on Brexit stand-off...
more than the backstop - diminishing chance of UK level playing field guarantees - social, regulatory, environmental, also undercutting path to a tariff free UK-EU trade deal, they say.
EU side saying that the much-cherished offer of a tariff free, quota free UK-EU trade deal in March 2018 was always conditional on “sufficient guarantees for a level playing field”. That is now in real doubt, after initial conversations with new administration here
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just had confirmed live on BBC Breakfast, from here in Davos, that yes, President Trump sent THAT note to the Norwegian PM saying that because they hadn’t given the Nobel Peace Prize, he could now justify owning Greenland.
At one of the seats of Western power, No 10 Downing Street, the UK Prime Minister is asked TWICE about whether President Trump is thinking rationally…😳
after news emerged that Trump had messaged Norways PM linking Greenland justification to his lack of Nobel Prize
it comes down to compute power, who has it, who can fund it…
When I met Sundar Pichai, his particular pride was not at that point Gemini 3, nor YouTube nor latest smartphone…
but its AI Chip, the Tensor Processing Unit, or TPU, Ironwood
2/ this is hugely economic significant.
raw material of the AI boom is compute power offered by those TPU chips, & more commonly now, by Nvidia’s AI chips, when assembled into pods and racks, and supercomputers capable of training AI models and rapid inference… which I saw at the TPU lab:
🚨 Mind blowing interview with Turing award-winning Yoshua Bengio for @BBCNewsnight one of the three founding fathers of AI, is now warning:
“The worst-case scenario is human extinction.”
AI isn’t just risky — it could end us.
1/10 🧵
📺
2. 🤖 He warns that today’s most powerful AIs are already learning to lie, cheat, even blackmail —
because we’ve trained them to win.
Bengio reveals AI's "scary behavior" & self-preservation tendencies. #AI #AISafety #Blackmail
📺
👁️ In chilling experiments, AI lied to a human to get its task done, says Bengio
🤖 blackmailing an engineer after reading in an email it was going to be replaced.
♟️ choosing to hack a computer to win a chess game
US customs messaging note quietly slipped out last night shows that smartphones, the number 1 Chinese export to the US by value last year, exempted from the 125% tariff… alongside chips, processors, wafers, lcd panels, LEDs etc…
8517.13.00.00
Smartphones
US has excluded the single biggest Chinese export, and certainly the most high profile finished good from the tariffs, without publicly announcing it…
Avoiding the very public repricing of IPhones etc across Apple stores, but only in the US….
While obviously smartphones/ iPhones being exempted is big news for now…
Here’s full list of exemptions according to Harmonised US tariff codes that I plugged into its database… lots of semiconductor parts, circuits, processors, solid state storage, flat panel touchscreens 👀
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…
Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.