Thread by @faisalislam

Another No Deal story on #bbcnewssix

We reveal the rather recent changes to the secret “reasonable worst case scenario” assumptions for No Deal Brexit trade flow that are the foundation for the Government’s No Deal planning.

...last year Government’s reasonable worst case scenario (revealed to industry under NDA but not public) for trade flows across Channel was incredible fall of 75% to 87% - so only 2 in 10 lorries flowing.

That was improved to 50-70% in April
& 40-60% in past few days BBC told
/1

...reason is really rather interesting - original catastrophic assumption done without French cooperation - on basis of 100% manual customs & regulatory checks (& required officials studying satellite photos of French ports)...upgrade has come as a result of new French facilities

... what this means in practice though is instead of 8000 lorries a day stuck either side of the Channel in a reasonable worst case scenario, and queuing capacity in UK filling up in days, it is more like 5000, which would fill up space in a fortnight... /3

...so in less catastrophic worst case scenario territory rather than actually good ones. But if you re a glass half full person, you might welcome progress...my understanding is that medicines suppliers think the disruption will be significant even with a 20% reduction in flow /4

Logistics providers think assumed flow rates shd be further improved - but totally contingent on trader prep. Companies can be prepared as they like, but if the lorry in front hasn’t got an EORI number its still a queue... depends on whether small companies have the cash /5

Freight Transport Association point out that the support for traders from UK Government is just £750 per company - equivalent to two hours training on how to fill customs forms they never have before had to. Massive shortage of customs agents though etc /6

Other industries - eg food - far from convinced on Government extra optimism - and so for example, asking for competition policy changes for possible food supply coordination - my other report today /7

The really big point here though - that the original 2 in 10 assumption already assumed the waiving of all checks into UK at Dover/ Folkestone - the improvement comes from what was done on the French side - rather vivid example of how this really depends on Paris /8

FULL Story here: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

Former Sainsburys Chief Justin King on @BBCNewsnight responds to our story on the governments internal assumptions on cross Channel trade flow, revealed to BBC news:

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1159225624344403968?s=21

And I have also been told Government knows that there is a very significant shortage - perhaps 5 figures - of customs agents, as Pete says below..

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1159167102617620480?s=21

FTA’s EU freight expert @S_LD_ told me in Calais about UK firms servicing European supply chains at 6 hrs notice with zero paperwork, now being told to
- get a customs agent (none available)
- needing 24 hours notice
- have to provide detailed inventory, eg weigh their supplies

For Just-in-time (& oft forgotten but equally important just-in-sequence) delivery of parts - this delay v tricky. £ slide helps a bit maybe.

Point tho not just basic EORI number required - each export will need new paperwork

EORI just base level prep & majority haven’t done it