Thread by @faisalislam

So it’s UK GDP day...

Heading up to one of the logistical/ warehousing, transport & trade hubs for filming...

Widely expected to show zero growth in the second quarter - April to June, amid slowing global growth, one-off Brexit factors, and wider poor UK business investment...

Plus or minus 0.1 also possible. At 0 or below - would be weakest quarterly figures for 7 years, since Eurozone crisis. Some of that is distortion from displaced growth because of No Deal Brexit stockpiling, & car industry shutdowns, but not all...

Looking through the individual quarter... at say, 0.. and with a soft 0.3% expected in this quarter, recession escaped, but weakest two quarters for a decade... indeed even with Q1 at 0.5%, that would be slowest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis 2009

Global growth is slowing amid trade tensions, China slowdown, that is being felt in European economies... for ref:

Q2 growth:

Eurozone +0.2%
- France +0.2%
- Italy 0%
- Spain +0.5%

Japan +0.4%
USA +0.5%

Consensus Estimates for Germany (+0.1%), Canada (+0.7%)

Other bit of news is that the Chancellor has delayed the three year spending review that was due to take place, by fast-tracking a one year spending round to this September...

enable some flesh to be put on some of quick extra spending decisions on health, police & schools...

Consequences:
Early certainty, though just for one year, but at the cost of uncertainty for later years. 3 year Review now due next year.

Could help with pre election spending promises.

Will mean spending fixed before new OBR forecasts on likely borrowing etc due at Budget