Thread by @juliettekayyem

Thread on Risk and Death Calculations (or why I don't worry about selfie stick deaths) : I'm skeptical about McConnell's "front and center" promise but important to note what McConnell is even willing to address is just breadcrumbs, a small piece of what we face. 1/

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1159658060312383488

In security risk planning, we focus on high likelihood/high consequence events because that is the obligation of government. These are the threats that must be minimized before they happen and whose consequences must be limited should the event occur. 2/

Low likelihood/low consequence events are tolerable from societal perspective; we don't have enough bandwidth to treat as a priority. Think selfie stick deaths as people lean over cliffs for Instagram. They are sad, but after putting up a few signs, you can't worry about it. 3/

That we are focused on background checks or red flags means that the debate is limited only to the likelihood calculation; in other words, we want to limit the likelihood that a "bad guy" gets a gun. Good, love it, I'm with you. . but you'll never get that likelihood to zero.4/

So that leads to the consequence side. In any other security setting, we'd simultaneously reduce likelihood of a bad thing happening AND limit the consequences of destruction should it come to pass; what we call left and right of boom planning (before and after) 5/

So, when it comes to gun violence, I'd want to limit the likleihood that a bad person got a gun AND reduce their destruction should I fail.
10 people were killed in 20 seconds.
22 people dead, another 26 injured, in a few moments.
#BanAssaultWeapons
#homelandsecurity 6/6

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