Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
Aug 9, 2019 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Thread on Risk and Death Calculations (or why I don't worry about selfie stick deaths) : I'm skeptical about McConnell's "front and center" promise but important to note what McConnell is even willing to address is just breadcrumbs, a small piece of what we face. 1/
In security risk planning, we focus on high likelihood/high consequence events because that is the obligation of government. These are the threats that must be minimized before they happen and whose consequences must be limited should the event occur. 2/
Low likelihood/low consequence events are tolerable from societal perspective; we don't have enough bandwidth to treat as a priority. Think selfie stick deaths as people lean over cliffs for Instagram. They are sad, but after putting up a few signs, you can't worry about it. 3/
That we are focused on background checks or red flags means that the debate is limited only to the likelihood calculation; in other words, we want to limit the likelihood that a "bad guy" gets a gun. Good, love it, I'm with you. . but you'll never get that likelihood to zero.4/
So that leads to the consequence side. In any other security setting, we'd simultaneously reduce likelihood of a bad thing happening AND limit the consequences of destruction should it come to pass; what we call left and right of boom planning (before and after) 5/
So, when it comes to gun violence, I'd want to limit the likleihood that a bad person got a gun AND reduce their destruction should I fail.
10 people were killed in 20 seconds.
22 people dead, another 26 injured, in a few moments.
#BanAssaultWeapons
#homelandsecurity 6/6
You'd

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More from @juliettekayyem

Mar 17
A proposal; It is good Biden is talking about the threat to our democracy coming from the violence Trump promises. We have a whole department created to address terrorism. And it would be nice to hear a plan about protecting our homeland security. DOJ is not built for this. 1/
The WH cannot talk of a real threat and then sit back and hope the voters solve the problem. They may and still Trump was a menace. That was true in 2020. He didn't stop. 2/
What I'm proposing is a very transparent planning process that engages local and state governments who manage elections. This plan would provide transparency on threats, a crisis response capacity, recommended rules of deployment for public safety resources, 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 19, 2023
PAY ATTENTION. I wait to talk to people I trust about how to interpret an event like Tropical Storm #Hilary . So .... reliable folks are now sounding alarms. There is simply nowhere for the water to go. Severe flooding in Vegas? Rain in Death Valley? "Impacts are unknown." 1/
The best to be said now is listen to local news, don't wade out in water, and set your emergency alerts on your phone (flash flood warnings) - if you don’t know how just download the fema app. There is a lot of crap out there now. Follow
AND 2/Ready.gov
LA City Alert. This feed is valid one: 3/

x.com/notifyla/statu…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 20, 2023
As faculty chair of a major initiative at Harvard's @Kennedy_School @BelferCenter, The Global Crisis and Resilience Forum, I am thrilled that four papers from the effort are now posted.
By David Hayes:
1/
belfercenter.org/publication/cl…
The Forum addresses the challenges and deficiencies of our disaster management system and how it might improve. We are meeting again this week in Cambridge.
By Bruggeman, Klein and Talmadge:
2/
belfercenter.org/publication/ev…
By Gaynor, Serino and Bruggeman
3/

belfercenter.org/publication/ev…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
A couple of things to consider/weigh for next few days that cut in a variety of ways: 1)the words are hot, the coordination is not. This is not January 6th. The more established right wing groups are disorganized, leaders are in jail, they've turned against each other. 1/
2)Trump is not in charge nor can he direct police or military assets; 3)Local, state and federal authorities have considerable notice to organize and now know that this is not a drill; 4)still, this is Florida, not NYC, and the pool of people likely to support Trump is bigger; 2/
5)Within MAGA land, there is a clear understanding that Trump did not bail the 1/6 defendants out and can not do so now; 6)It only takes one person, in Miami or elsewhere, and the guns are real so I think that concern of the one off is greater than some organized move; 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29, 2023
A thread on divorce. Given its topic, book lectures for THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS have no expiration date. Admittedly, speaking to a gathering of divorce lawyers was unique. I don't like to just show up, so I do spend some time learning and asking about why they would want me. 1/
There are similarities: people and families in crisis, shock and sadness, difficulties in how to "measure success" (riding happily into the sunset is not an option.) The lawyers try to make things "less bad," a theme of my book. It made sense to me. 2/
But I can't get two things out of my head. I asked some of the organizers what has changed in the last decade. They said people have a misunderstanding of divorce. All are sad, but in the past very few resulted in wars. But things are not as they were. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 12, 2023
Follow @SRuhle on the #SVBCollapse. I have a confession; I was once a client of Silicon Valley Bank and everything she says rings true. How did this happen? It takes some understanding of the culture of startups and the pressure of conformity by the boys with billions. 1/
I had never heard of SVB when I started to raise for a tech company I co-founded. In the end, we never had to raise from VCs so had little interaction with the bank, but we did think when we started that we would. We'd raise a few bucks from angel investors then go big. 2/
"Everybody uses SVB" I was told, though we were based in Boston. Raising money is horrible. For a woman, even one with a track record, it is an uncomfortable power dynamic and my age and experience helped level it some. The data is clear it is not easy for women. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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