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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Aug 10, 2019 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Earth is rapidly being transformed into a desert planet with catastrophic consequences for most living things.

[THREAD]
4 - 5 billion people, most of them already living in poverty, will see their habitats undergo an acutely challenging transformation as we head rapidly to an extremely dangerous 2.5°C world of year long droughts and food shortages due to locked in warming and climate feedbacks.
Desertification - the greatest threat.

Land degradation of dry lands:

North and southern Africa, western North America, Australia, the Middle East & Central Asia. Drylands are home to 2.7 billion people – 90% of whom live in developing countries'carbonbrief.org/explainer-dese…
Aridification will emerge over ~25% of Earth's land surface.

Areas most affected: SE Asia, S. Europe, S. Africa, Central America and Southern Australia - home to more than 1.5 billion people. Areas would become more arid; droughts & wildfires widespread.
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ar…
We're hurtling into 'climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation', a world where 'climates like those of the Pliocene will prevail as soon as 2030'.

2. 5°C by 2030: to a climate 'outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity'?

The implications are clear.

Surviving decently (or at all) in a world of rapidly escalating extreme water stress/scarcity & mega-drought food shortages is quickly going to become exceedingly difficult for billions of people.

See thread here for 4°C:👇
See the thread under my Pinned Tweet for what we can do about all this.

It is time to dismantle colonial, corporate capitalism and shift the world into a new phase of climate justice. The alternative is a mass die-off.

We're endangered mammals. 👇
Bonus Ecological Apocalypse thread:👇
If you're wondering where the map comes from:

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Oct 12
60-75% of Earth's species risk sudden extinction in a few decades given:
* extreme population declines
* likely vulnerability of data deficient species
* pollution and habitat & wildlife destruction trends
* accelerating warming of 3/3.5°C in 2-6 decades

Most at risk?

Primates.
Percentage of species at risk of extinction (% with declining populations)

50% (61%) of birds
47% (up to 75%) of amphibians
40% (up to 70%) of plants
40% (up to 89%) of insects
37% (up to 75%) of mammals
28% (up to 63%) of reptiles
24% (up to 84%) of fishes
66% (93%) of primates
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/br…
Read 15 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Oct 5
Conservative analysis reveals utterly horrific global warming of 1.75-2°C is likely set to hit within 4 to 12 years with truly catastrophic consequences for food systems.
Estimate of 1.44°C (20-year average) warming for 2015-34:

metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Sep 18
12-40% of species extinct is considered catastrophic. So many amphibian species (~50%), plant & bird species (~40-50%), insect & mammal species (~30-40%), and reptile & fish species (~25%) are currently seen as being at risk. 48% of species are in decline. How will humans cope?
1. under a pessimistic global warming scenario (~4°C increase), climate change alone might only cause the extinction of ~20–30% of extant species in the next ~50–100 years [41,42]. Taken together, these losses would be catastrophic, but very far from 75%.'
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
2. 'Current projections of future extinction seem more consistent with ~12–40% species loss, which would be catastrophic but far from the 75% criterion used to argue for a 6th mass extinction.'

Some experts fear >50% at 3-4°C even with moderate emissions.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Sep 10
Earth's species will suffer 2-2.6°C and rising even in capitalism's most ambitious decarbonization scenario. Scientists anticipate unsurvivable 3-7°C, with geologic periods like the Miocene climatic optimum (MCO) seen as good analogues for our current 21st century climate hell.🧵 The multimethod, multitaxon pCO2 reconstruction presented here indicates that pCO2 was moderately elevated at ~450–550 ppm during the MCO. These results are somewhat higher than most previously published pCO2 records, which generally report pCO2 < 450 ppm (see Foster et al., 2017), but still considerably lower pCO2 than climate modeling requires to reproduce MCO temperatures (Goldner et al., 2014). This indicates that climate sensitivity must have been elevated during the MCO, leading to highly elevated temperatures at moderately elevated pCO2. With 415 ppm measured for the first time in sp...
1/The race is now on to improve our knowledge of the Earth system in order to understand whether.. moderate levels of pCO2 may.. cause a devastating..increase of up to 7°C in the (near?) future, and if so, take action to prevent it. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
2. The temperature regime reconstructed for most of the Miocene, ∼5°C–8°C above modern, is equivalent to projected future warming in about a century under unmitigated carbon emissions scenarios.. an important warm-climate analog..
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 27
COLLAPSE/EXTINCTION: scientists fear global warming of 3.5°C, which wipes out 33-70% of species (IPCC AR4 2007, IPCC AR6 2022), will likely hit by the 2060s give or take a decade or two 🧵
1. IPCC scenario SSP3-7.0 shows 3.5°C by 2080 or from 2062 (not the worst-case scenario). Even a moderate emissions scenario can lead to 3.5°C this century (new research shows 2060s-80s possible).


Species extinct IPCC:
3.5C 40-70% 2007
3C 29%, 4C 39% 2022esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
2. A new pre-print from highly respected climate scientists implies 3.5°C by 2065-77 at current rates of warming. The authors warn this rate could increase or decrease perhaps suggesting 3.5°C by around 2055-2087 rather like IPCC high emissions scenarios.
researchsquare.com/article/rs-607…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 25
BREAKING: scientists say Earth's major systems are undergoing abrupt changes — and soon we'll all feel them 🧵
1. 'prepare for a future of abrupt change.. choices made now will determine whether we face a future of worsening impacts and irreversible change or one of managed resilience to the changes already locked in.' phys.org/news/2025-08-s…
2. Society must now brace for catastrophic impacts.

Thread:
Read 7 tweets

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