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Robert E Kelly Profile picture
@Robert_E_Kelly
Aug 10, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
To all the MAGA/ONN/KAG/Trumpers who harass me on Twitter, how is this possibly making America great again? Seriously. I want to know how ‘friendship’ with, & propaganda manipulation by, an orwellian tyrant serves US interests & how it’s even remotely ‘conservative’ or Republican
This was a bit rant-ish, but I’m always being told I’m a leftist or a cuck. I find that bizarre given my record: . And on N Korea - Trump’s signature foreign policy issue and my strongest issue area - I’m to Trump’s right, routinely arguing here and in /2
my op-ed writing (asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com) that Trump should hold a tougher lime and stop giving Kim Jong Un legitimizing summits for nothing. Loyalty to Trump, not policy, is the litmus then, which makes the GOP into a personality cult. That’s terrifying. END

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More from @Robert_E_Kelly

Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Apr 14
Good thread, nicely illustrating how de-linked the GOP evangelical base is from the rest of America.

They wanna go after abortion, IVF, birth control, gay marriage, and the rest. GOP leaders know this is electoral suicide, but they don’t know how to get around it. If Biden is

1
smart, he’ll make personal family & sexual freedom the center of his campaign.

Evangelicals may overwhelm the GOP internally, but the rest of the country thinks they’re weird & creepy

This is the result of social isolation: churches which provide a whole separated lifestyle,

2
a TV ‘news’ network which only tells you what you want to hear, home-schooling, a sealed media ecosystem of faith-based movies and influencers telling you that social change is the apocalypse.

Catholics once had parallel institutions like this, especially the schools. But we

3
Read 5 tweets
Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Mar 10
BBC Dad content

Today is the 7th anniversary of the BBC Dad blooper.

So here it is again, with some recent family pictures in the thread below.

1
These are from Marion's birthday party today, and James and I hiking this morning


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Another hiking picture, and some Christmas 2023 pictures


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Read 4 tweets
Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Feb 20
This thread makes a point political science emphasizes a lot - and which I tell my students constantly:

Competent democratic government is actually really boring. A lot of it is unappealing trade-offs, wonks diving deep into detail the public won’t track, maintenance instead

1
of flashy new initiatives politicians can put their name on, compromise between parties which leaves no one happy, incremental, unexciting improvements only visible over the medium-term, and so on.

This is not entertaining or engaging, & doesn’t make for exciting journalism.

2
But it is how you mostly want democracies governed. This is why you don’t elect showboats like Trump or Jesse Ventura, and you do elect competent administrators like George W. Bush or Biden.

Sometimes I think Fukuyama is right: wealthy democracies get so bored that they

3
Read 5 tweets
Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Jan 18
🧵No, there won't be a War with N Korea

Yes, NK's rhetoric seems more belligerent lately. Yes, this Kim seems to enjoy making scary threats more than his father did. Yes, the US is distracted by Ukraine & Gaza. But

1. N Korea is the Boy who Cried Wolf

1
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
NK constantly talks like this. I made this point back in 2013👇when Kim told foreigners to leave SK bc war was imminent (jerk). Perhaps Kim means it this time. That is possible,of course. But it's impossible to reliably infer that f/ NK rhetoric anymore

2
thediplomat.com/2013/04/north-…
2. Talk is Cheap

National elites say outlandish stuff all the time. Look at Putin. Threats are a cheap signal. What matters instead are costly signals, which in the NK case would mean something like a seventh nuclear test, a missile test flight over SK, or border skirmishes.

3
Read 11 tweets
Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Oct 29, 2023
Latent capacity is not capability. Khrushchev said we will bury you, and Mao thought he could fight a nuclear war bc of China’s huge population.This is not how conflict works

Sacks says stuff like this all the time. I’ve no idea why he’s taken seriously as a geopolitical thinker
1. We are highly unlikely to fight all three at the same time. Sacks is ginning up an extreme scenario to scare people

2. The U.S. would not fight alone. We have a huge alliance network, and those states are wealthy and capable too

3. Our goals against all three are limited…
We are not going to invade Russia or China

4. Nuclear weapons limit the likelihood of great power escalation. That works in our favor as the status quo power

5. US has spent trillions on defense for decades. These states have not.That’s a huge logistical advantage you don’t see
Read 5 tweets
Robert E Kelly Profile picture
Oct 10, 2023
In fact, Biden’s dealt with these crises pretty well.

In Ukraine, he’s helped that fledging democracy fight off increasingly overt fascist imperialism. On Israel, he’s robustly supported Israeli security while discouraging Netanyahu’s legal coup, and has encouraged Israelis

1
and Palestinians toward the negotiated solution which is the only durable way out of the cycle of violence they’re locked in.

Yeah, it’s choppy and messy, but that’s how the sausage gets made and it could easily be a lot worse.

Were Trump were POTUS, Russia would be on the

2
Dnipro and NATO would be fracturing as Eastern Europe armed to the teeth while Western Europe dithered.

In Israel, the hard right government would feel unbound in the coming offensive, and the US and Iran would probably be in a shooting war by the end of the month.

So yeah,

3
Read 4 tweets

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