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Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Aug 11, 2019 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
In light of North Korea missile tests, worth reflecting on the limits of arms control agreements (assuming that is a goal of the Trump admin).

I highlighted those limits with the INF 👇. Having trouble seeing how an eventual NK-USA Agreement could do better 🤷‍♂️
But don’t accept my skepticism about arms control agreements.

Take it from a foundational IR text, “The Disarmament Illusion” by Merze Tate
Full text available here:

archive.org/stream/disarma…
Is the Tate book dated? Sure!

But sometimes (most of the time?) the old ideas in IR still hold true 👇

Consider my favorite passage from Tate, which I share with #ChicagoIntroIR students -- it expresses an idea that Waltzs & Mearsheimers of IR would recognize
Indeed, you could read that passage by Tate and basically understand the idea expressed in this recent @IntOrgJournal piece by Fearon

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
@IntOrgJournal So from Europe to the Korean peninsula to Iran, I'm not bullish on the prospects of sustaining arms control.

[END OF MINI-THREAD]
ADDENDUM: For more on the design of arms control agreements, check out @sekreps recent @FPA_Jrnl piece

academic.oup.com/fpa/article-ab…

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Sep 7
Which of these two men is most responsible for World War II?

Short answer: not Churchill

Long answer: [THREAD]
Image
Image
To be clear, in this thread I am dealing with the onset of the war in Europe. The War in Asia was just as important and obviously connected to Europe. But that is for another thread. For now, I do highly recommend Paine's book "The Wars for Asia"

amazon.com/Wars-Asia-1911…
The historiography on WWII is massive. But in terms of responsibility for the war's origins, there are essentially two extreme views.

Call them the Mueller Thesis and the Taylor Thesis
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 17
Solving the "Europe Problem" has vexed US foreign policy since the beginning.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote last week, a key trait of US "grand strategy" since the founding of the Republic was "Go West" either by expanding US territory west or seeking to maintain trade with China.

But the other key trait of US grand strategy has been to keep the European powers from standing in the way.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Aug 10
Since the founding of the republic, US foreign policy has been about one thing:

Go west (and don't let Europe get in the way).

[THREAD] Image
I'll write more about "don't let Europe get in the way" in another 🧵. This one will focus on the "Go west" part (which will also touch on the Europe part).
One could go so far as to argue that the Republic itself was founded because of a desire to go west. Specifically, the colonials were forbidden to go west of the 1763 Proclamation line. Image
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 15
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"

[THREAD] Image
While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions....
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
...the phrase itself is much more recent in origins, largely a product of the mid-1990s. Image
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 8
Are the "opportunity costs" of arming Ukraine too high?

Short answer: no

Long answer: compared to what?

[THREAD]
For those not aware, I am asking this question because of a new International Affairs piece that makes the argument "yes, they are too high"

academic.oup.com/ia/advance-art…
Overall, their argument is that the resources going towards Ukraine would be better allocated to address other pressing global challenges.
Read 24 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jun 1
In international politics, population is destiny.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics.
worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
This isn't a new idea. It's one found in classic works on change in world politics.

amazon.com/War-Change-Wor…
Read 14 tweets

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