Avichal - Electric ϟ Capital Profile picture
Aug 12, 2019 25 tweets 16 min read Read on X
1/ The H1 2019 @ElectricCapital Developer Report is out!

@MariaShen compiled this with data infra built by @jubos and contributions from @puntium and @thuanlee.

We analyzed 22 million commits across 22k+ code repositories. Read it here: medium.com/@ElectricCapit…

Some tidbits 👇
2/ Why study developer ecosystems

Adoption and liquidity require wallets, infra, and apps/services. And engineers follow distribution + revenue, so winning platforms draw more devs. It is as important to understand developer ecosystems as users, miners, exchanges, and regulators
3/ We analyzed 22M commits and 27K repositories.

While network values fell 80%+ from all time highs, overall commit rates across all repositories remained flat.
4/ But monthly active developers appears to be down year-over-year by 10% to 6,842. Why the discrepancy vs. a flat commit count?
5/ Most of the fall is explained by looking at one-time per month and part-time developers (developers active less than 10 days a month)
6/ In fact, almost 80% of the developer "loss" is from developers who contributed just 1x/month
7/ The number of full time developers stayed consistent through H1 2019. These developers do most of the code commits (10-30 days worth of commits/month). Which explains why commit counts are flat.
8/ Diving in -- Projects in the top 100 by network value lost 4% of their developers. Projects outside of top 100 lost 19% of their developers.

The top 100 projects are now ~50% of open source crypto developers for the first time since the ICO boom.
9/ Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to have healthy developer activity. Bitcoin has 300+ developers working in the ecosystem on open source projects.

Ethereum now as 1200+ developers in its ecosystem. Remember ecosystem includes things like wallets, infra, etc.
10/ @ethereum ecosystem has almost 1 in 5 of all open source developers in crypto working in its ecosystem right now.
11/ On the far other end of network value...

For projects with less than $50M network value, @grinMW's ecosystem stands out with 33 contributing developers.

Remember ecosystem includes things like wallets, infra, etc.
12/ Looking at 12 month trends.

@MakerDao gained the most w/ @wavesplatform, @tezos, @AttentionToken, #XRP, @Cardano also growing.

@BCH, @neo_blockchain, and @Tronfoundation are losing the most.
13/ We also broke down many top ecosystems in to 1x/month, part time, and full time developers.

We also see the effect on developer engagement with well executed launches such as @cosmos Game of Stakes and the @monero community's beryllium bullet release.
14/ We visualized individual developer commits to spot (pun intended) patterns. Each row is a developer. We place a dot in a row on a day that developer committed code. We sort top to bottom based on frequency. So one time devs are at the top. More frequent devs are at the bottom
15/ Many ecosystems have long term, full time, committed developers -- a row with lots of dots all the way across indicates a developer who has done many commits in the last year.
16/ Some projects also have a growing community of part time contributors e.g. @block_one_’s #EOSIO - The emergence of dots on the right indicates new commits this year. Whitespace on the left indicates those devs were not previously active.
17/ Unsurprisingly, developers like to follow momentum, users, and making money. DeFi is growing full time developers and devs are investing more infrastructure projects - perhaps things that businesses and other devs may pay for?
18/ Zooming back out: Remember, developers committing code 10+ days/month are as committed as ever (another pun!)
19/ The rate of change of Full Time developer growth (the second derivative) year-over-year does not go below 1. Even in a bear market, Full Time developers come in less quickly but they continue to come.
20/ The largest crypto ecosystems are starting become meaningful - obviously it is not 100% apples to apples but interesting to consider scale vs. Apache Foundation @TheASF or @linuxfoundation
21/ One simple projection: If the next 4 years are like the last 4, we end up with 70k active developers on only open source projects. This does not count people working in financial institutions, exchanges, law firms, or critical non-engineering roles at these organizations.
22/ Summing it up: Full Time devs are sticking around. Total developer count dropped YoY, but mostly because infrequent contributors left. Underneath the boom and bust trends, the ecosystem is getting stronger.
23/ Take all of this as one facet of health in the ecosystem. No metric is perfect but data can be useful if used holistically.

Again you can read the full report here: medium.com/@ElectricCapit…
25/ This work requires mapping many thousands of project repositories. Please contribute any projects you know about so we can continue to improve our report.

The ecosystem mappings are available on Github: github.com/electric-capit…

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More from @avichal

May 22
1/ The US House is voting on FIT 21 today.

Biden just said he wants comprehensive crypto regulations.

Time for another explainer thread.

+ What is FIT21?
+ Why is this bill important?
+ What does FIT21 tell us about shifting political alliances and power in the US?

🧵👇 Image
2/ What is FIT21?

FIT21 is the "Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act"

You can read it here:

FIT21 is the 1st bill that tries to comprehensively define how the crypto market should be regulated in the USrules.house.gov/bill/118/hr-47…
3/ FIT 21 has a few key areas and provisions:
+Delineates when SEC or CFTC has jurisdiction
+ Consumer protections around transparency and disclosures for promoters and endorsers
+ Prohibits agencies from preventing people from using crypto
+ Asks Treasury to study stablecoins
Read 16 tweets
May 16
1/ The US Senate just voted 60-38 to overturn SAB 121

This is a BIG deal!

It is the 1st crypto bill to get to the President

It also sends a message to @SECGov that they are screwing up

What is SAB 121?
Why is this vote a big deal?
How did the banks help crypto win here?!

👇Image
2/ SEC Accounting Bulletin 121 was released in 2022.

It required digital asset custodians to treat digital assets as liabilities and hold them at fair value on their balance sheets.

Why is this a problem?
3/ There are many problems with SAB 121.

The biggest issue:

If a bank custodies $1b of Bitcoin for customers, they have to hold $1b in cash to offset this "liability" on their balance sheet

This makes no sense. The assets are not the company's. They are the customers'.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
1/ The US has lost its global lead in crypto & blockchain developers.

This is a policy disaster for the US.

Almost every other region understands the potential of these technologies and how to regulate reasonably.

We see this daily. Amazing founders are leaving the US 👇
2/ In the @ElectricCapital portfolio alone, founders of companies/protocols worth $5B+ have left the US and given up permanent residency.

@solana, @NEARFoundation, @cosmos host their developer conferences outside the US

The center of gravity of @Polygon is in Dubai and India
3/ @binance is the world's largest exchange despite @coinbase having a head start and spending millions on compliance every year

Even well-intentioned projects now block users from the US, North Korea, Iran, and Syria. <-- how crazy is that list?!
Read 9 tweets
Apr 19, 2022
1/ People are surprised to learn @ElectricCapital's team is 68% software engineers and designers

Why does a VC firm need engineers?

Because Crypto will do to TradFi & venture capital firms what the Internet did to retail & media companies.

🧵👇

mirror.xyz/electriccap.et…
2/ When @pmarca wrote "Why Software is Eating the World" he noted every business must become a software business

Software companies deliver better products, have big moats, acquire customers at lower CAC, and have better margins.

To compete, every company must be software-first
3/ Legacy companies had huge head-starts and resources vs. software startups...but they still lost.

@Walmart has not been able to compete against @Amazon.

Newspapers lost to @Twitter and @Facebook.

Why?
Read 17 tweets
Mar 1, 2022
1/ @ElectricCapital has raised $1 billion in new capital, our largest fundraise yet.

The web3 economy built on top of the programmable money stack will be one of the defining disruptions of the 2020s.

Where are we going to invest $1 billion?

mirror.xyz/electriccap.et…

🧵👇
2/ We believe five key trends will define the 2020s:

i) DAOs will empower global communities to allocate resources in new ways

ii) NFTs will form a new asset and infrastructure layer for Web3

iii) DeFi will democratize access to financial products
3/ Five key trends that will define the 2020s continued:

iv) Decentralized Infrastructure will allow engineers to build the next generation of apps without a central point of failure or control

v) Accessible user experiences will onboard one billion users to Web3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 5, 2022
1/ Time for @ElectricCapital's Annual Developer Report:
medium.com/electric-capit…

We analyzed 150m+ repos & xM code commits to produce these 100+ charts.

This was a community effort: 150 people contributed via email and Github! Thank you everyone who helped.

Let's dig in👇
2/ Our methodology:
We focus on open source code, so we undercount total developers in web3.

We focus on unique code and do not count purely copy/paste code.

These are all imperfect measures but directionally useful to understand web3 growth. Feedback is appreciated!
3/ tl;dr - Web3 is at All-Time Highs:
* 18k+ monthly devs
* 2.5k monthly devs in DeFi
* 3k NEW devs touch web3 code each month
* Several emerging ecosystems are growing faster than @Ethereum at the same stage in its history
* 20-25% of new devs each month start on @Ethereum
Read 37 tweets

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