I think @joshtpm is right. Robert Mueller told the House Intelligence Committee last month Russian intelligence services would try to influence the next election as they did the last one. Helping 3rd party campaigns would be one way to do this. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/third-p…
Let's look at another scenario: what if Trump drops out? This seems extremely unlikely now; the center of a personality cult probably finds too much gratification in the role to give it up willingly. But Trump has always shrunk from taking responsibility when things go wrong.
A major economic downturn or bungled international crisis could conceivably make him want to walk away on his own, blaming his enemies, and avoid the humiliation of a landslide election defeat. There is also the matter that news media and people in politics....
....are even more reluctant to discuss in plain English than Trump's racism -- Trump is old & fat. Already he has a senior citizen's work schedule, full of TV time & plenty of golf. He's at least as big a health risk as were Eisenhower (1956), Johnson, (1968) or Reagan (1984)
....when each was considering a second full term as President; Johnson dropped out, & health issues were prominent in both Eisenhower's and Reagan's second terms. Trump is a higher health risk than any more recent President. Were he suddenly to depart from the scene, what then?
Trump has enthusiastic followers, including some who are Republicans only because of him. Vice President Pence, though white evangelicals see him as one of theirs, owes his position exclusively to Trump, and has little public profile of his own.
Republicans who ran for the Presidency in 2016 have all (except for former Ohio Governor @JohnKasich) abased themselves before Trump in conspicuously degrading ways. So, somewhat less overtly, have the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan.
No other remotely plausible Republican nominee has Trump's entertainment value -- a major factor in his appeal; all would be saddled by his record; none could count on the unified, rabid support of FoxWorld and the rest of conservative right wing media Trump enjoys now.
For the Republican Party, it is Trump or nothing in 2020. He may end up doing his thing, campaigning to be reelected with only white votes, and lose badly. But without him, the GOP could fracture and lose even more badly. [end]
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