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Paul Poast Profile picture
@ProfPaulPoast
Aug 13, 2019 • 5 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Did the US promise NOT to expand @NATO? 🤷‍♂️

Even if it hadn't, expanding @NATO was far from a given in the early 1990s. The Clinton Administration struggled with what to do and how to do it.

@e_sarotte's new @Journal_IS piece explores how it happened: mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
And some of the documents used in the piece (and that @e_sarotte worked to declassify) are available via the @NSArchive

nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/…
These documents are amazing and will contribute to 👇assignment in #ChicagoIntroIR2019

So like all of @e_sarotte's work (1989; The Collapse; etc), an important and super useful piece worth engaging!
Addendum: Oh, and for the latest on the "No NATO expansion promise" debate, see discussion b/w @shifrinson & @timsayle from this past weekend

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
May 4
Does the United States have a responsibility to protect the civilians of Gaza?

[THREAD] Image
In my latest @WPReview column, I wrote of the downfall of "Responsibility to Protect" or R2P.

worldpoliticsreview.com/us-foreign-pol…
R2P is "the responsibility to protect its populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity". This means nations can't hide behind the barrier of "sovereignty" to stop interventions.

un.org/en/genocidepre…
Read 22 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 21
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.

Why did he do it?

[THREAD] Image
As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
While it's partly personal for Johnson, his remarks emphasize a larger point, one that I raised in a recent @WPReview column: cutting off US aid won't end the war. Instead, it would embolden Russia.
worldpoliticsreview.com/us-ukraine-aid…
Read 19 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 20
Let's do this.

A close reading of Donald Trump's recent description of the Battle of Gettysburg.

TL, DR: there were no pirates.

[THREAD] Image
ICYMI, here is a clip of what Trump said about the Battle of Gettysburg at his recent Pennsylvania rally

Let's start at the beginning:

"The Union was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg"
Read 30 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 14
Are we on the brink of a larger Middle East War?

The risk increased in the past day, but is still low.

[SHORT THREAD]
Many of the points raised in 👇 🧵 from October still apply: larger wars happen because states want to be drawn in.

Is that still the case?
This @goodauth piece from October made related points about the tools states -- specifically Iran and Israel -- can use to control escalation.

goodauthority.org/news/will-the-…
Read 9 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 13
"International law is fake law."

"The only real law is domestic law."

Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true.

[THREAD] Image
As I wrote recently in @WPReview, international law is flawed. But flawed shouldn't be confused with pointless.

worldpoliticsreview.com/war-gaza-inter…
I emphasized how international law is part of a broader diplomatic process where states try to convey their preferences over policy.

In other words, from signing a treaty to filing a ICJ dispute, international law provides information.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Read 20 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Apr 6
To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO.

Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship.

[THREAD] Image
This 🧵 builds on my latest @WPReview piece. I argued that NATO is more valuable than ever to its members. But how do we actually know that?

worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-ukraine-r…
The key is to ask, "if NATO wasn't here, what would happen?"
Read 26 tweets

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