Seth Abramson Profile picture
Aug 13, 2019 20 tweets 4 min read Read on X
(QUESTION OF THE DAY) Can *anyone* explain the series of events below to me? Wexner just retained a criminal defense attorney; Rybolovlev is a former employer of Joel Zamel, the Israeli who says he [illegally] aided the Trump campaign with Saudi and Emirati money pre-election...
1/ It seems to me that if Epstein really did underwrite Mar-a-Lago/1125 S. Ocean Blvd.—as he's claimed—he'd have been livid if Trump's sister basically gave it back to him in 2004 to help him purchase a home (Wexner's old home) that *Epstein* wanted. That'd explain a falling out.
2/ Just so, if Epstein had some sort of a financial claim on Trump that he was liable to push after being cheated out of a home he wanted to live in in 2004, one could easily imagine Trump dropping a dime on Epstein regarding behaviors he'd long known about (and even spoken of).
3/ But the home Trump outbid Epstein for was a bad investment Trump overpaid for out of anger with Epstein. So say Epstein—who has close ties to the Israeli and Saudi governments—wants to get back in Trump's good graces while the Israelis and Saudis are courting Russia over Iran.
4/ It's well known that Putin directs his oligarchs to do things he needs them to do. Was Rybolovlev ordered to overpay Trump by $55M as part of a rapprochement with Epstein? We certainly know Rybolovlev lied—repeatedly—about why he bought the property. (See PROOF OF CONSPIRACY.)
5/ Sometime after Trump makes maybe his biggest real estate killing ever—a $55M profit in 48 months—he and Epstein, per Epstein, become close again, with Epstein advising Trump on foreign policy, per Epstein. Everyone knows you can get back into Trump's good graces by paying him.
6/ Meanwhile, Rybolovlev has bought access to Trump significant enough he can meet him twice pre-election—as Putin is aiding Trump—and at Epstein's home/Mar-a-Lago in December '17, the latter meetup possibly with Deripaska, who was in Miami and is Suspect #1 in Russian collusion.
7/ I don't know if any of that is correct; I'm not even saying it is. I'm just trying to figure out what "theory of the case" an investigator would compose—on the strength of these fully confirmed facts—that'd make them make any sense at all. Clearly these individuals have ties.
8/ When asked what the basis for his falling out with Epstein was, Trump lied: first he said he caught Epstein harassing a masseuse at Mar-a-Lago, and then, when reports came out that it was actually a business deal, he switched to saying to media, "Frankly, it doesn't matter..."
9/ When Trump tells you that the basis for his falling out with Epstein "doesn't matter," you know—you know for *certain*, if you've ever covered this president as a journalist—that it's something that *definitely* matters. So a "theory of the case" on this is vitally important.
10/ 1985 and 2004 are 19 years apart. There's no chance it's coincidence that Epstein effectively says Trump owes him money for a 1985 purchase—then Trump does a squirrelly '04 deal with his sister for *that* property—then they're fighting *that year* over who gets Wexner's home.
11/ Moreover, Epstein had been with young girls—and publicly—for *15+ years* by the time of the auction on the old Wexner home. And you're telling me that just *20 days later* an anonymous person drops a dime on Epstein? When Trump is known to snitch on people? Not a coincidence.
12/ There's no doubt having had to overpay for Wexner's old property would've chafed Trump, particularly if he had to do it to outbid a man he was in an angry "failed business arrangement" with. So a Russian oligarch swoops in and overpays him by...*$55 million*? Not coincidence.
13/ But what does Epstein have to do with anything after the "falling out" in 2004? That's where Epstein insisting to a journalist there was a rapprochement between him and Trump after 2004 comes into play. What did Epstein have had to arrange to get back in Trump's good graces?
14/ So what, besides blackmail, did Epstein have to flash to get back into Trump's trust? Money, obviously—but what deal was he involved with? Rybolovlev? If only there were a "grand bargain" Russia was working on with two governments Epstein was tied to: Israel and Saudi Arabia.
15/ My point is this: Epstein appears to have been a money manager for MBS. MBS offered the Trump campaign illegal pre-election assistance. Epstein ends up advising Trump pre-election. Sources for all this? Epstein himself and the NYT. So could all this explain the rapprochement?
16/ And *all* of this happens in the context of Trump fighting—harder than he's fought *anything* else, and for years, across dozens of lies to American voters—to *hide his tax returns* from citizens, federal investigators, and Congress.

What business deals does he need to hide?
17/ If THE NEW YORK TIMES is right that Trump and Epstein fell out over a "failed business arrangement," and if—per his pattern—Trump saying the nature of that arrangement doesn't matter means that it very much does, might not tax returns help us uncover the Trump-Epstein secret?
18/ Note: 1125 S Ocean Blvd is adjacent to Mar-a-Lago; one could imagine that—if Epstein underwrote (gave Trump the money for, given he needed $30M and would *lose* $50M in 1985)—one/both purchases, he might've felt he had a claim whereas Trump would've seen it all as Mar-a-Lago.
19/ Most already know this, but remember that the home Epstein's rep says Trump met Epstein in on December 23-24, 2017 is in Palm Beach—so Rybolovlev (and Deripaska!) having their private jets in Miami *on those days* means they were "in town" during such a Trump-Epstein meeting.

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More from @SethAbramson

Nov 10
Trump won by 255K votes in the 3 states that decided the election. A swing of 128K votes in those states and Harris is POTUS.

Estimates have him winning under 50% of the popular vote.

MAGA lost Senate races in WI, MI, NV, and AZ. It may lose the House.

Hard to see a landslide.
The margin of victory Trump will end up with, 1.5%, is the smallest margin any incumbent party in the developed world has lost by post-pandemic, and in case you did not know, this is the first year since World War II in which every incumbent party has lost in the developed world.
We were told VP Harris received 20 million fewer votes than Biden.

We were even told that that supposed fact proved the 2020 election was stolen.

But by the time all the votes are counted, the data indicates Harris will have received only about 4 million fewer votes than Biden.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
(🧵) The 2024 U.S. presidential election was *not* stolen: a THREAD.

RETWEET for anyone in your life going down this road. Image
1/ Some notes to start:

1⃣ I’m as devastated by this loss as anyone—for more reasons than I can say or readers will know. Please understand, I feel the same pain as you.
2⃣ If contrary hard evidence emerges, I will say so.
3⃣ I worked on post-vote stolen-election claims in 2004.
2/ Every analysis—and many of the ones I mean are coming from the *right* (using current data to “prove” that the *2020* election was stolen)—that relies on *current* vote tallies is bogus. Millions of votes are still being counted, and the final results will look very different.
Read 42 tweets
Nov 8
(📢) PROOF EXCLUSIVE: Proof of Consequences, Vol. 1: Where America Goes Now

🔗:

This one is nearly book-length, but it’s a barnburner. It’s FREE with a one-week trial of PROOF, a Top 25 U.S. Politics substack.

Please RETWEET this so everyone can see it. sethabramson.substack.com/p/proof-of-con…Image
1/ A lot of people are asking me whether the lengthy report above—like I said, it is probably nearly book-length (and surely novella-length)—will address the allegations now floating around social media that the 2024 presidential election was stolen.
2/ Many of you probably do not know that I got my start in so-called bigtime national political journalism in 2004—bigtime, at least, in the sense that major media outlets (e.g. ROLLING STONE) covered my political journalism. At the time I was mostly focused on the 2004 election.
Read 36 tweets
Nov 7
Just a quick note here in advance of Trump and Musk crashing the economy in 2025: Trump voters are going to blame Democrats for that too.

Read up on fascism and cults and stop assuming we have a rational electorate that’s actually looking at economic indicators. It simply isn’t.
If anyone is looking ahead to 2025 and thinking that when Donald Trump breaks things, kills people, ends alliances and treaties, and endangers all of us he’ll be blamed for it, think again. You can’t *imagine* the degree of pain he’ll need to cause people before they turn on him.
Trump is a proxy for issues in people and culture Democrats can’t resolve via politics. He is a fever that will either kill this country dead or bring it so close to death—and I mean spectacularly, painfully close to death—that the fever breaks. Democrats better learn that quick.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 6
(🧵) ELECTION THREAD: I’ve been waiting all night to say anything substantive about what’s happened, as I felt—I still do—that I might say something I’d regret.

I hope you’ll consider following along as I try to process this with you all, and try to do it responsibly. Please RT. Image
1/ The New York Times gives Trump more a 90% chance of winning the election. Barring a miracle—and none is on the horizon at present—he will win.

And if by some miracle Harris won, it would be such a shock that it would almost certainly cause widespread Trumpist violence anyway.
2/ He isn’t just winning. At present this is shaping up to be a landslide. This is not Harris doing as Biden did. This is not Harris doing as Clinton did. This is Harris losing Texas by 15, Florida by 13, Iowa by 14, Ohio by 11...

This is Trump *wildly* outperforming all polls.
Read 36 tweets
Nov 4
(📢) MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump and MAGA's Kremlin Allies Planning Terrorist Attacks Inside the United States; Trump and MAGA's Support for Putin and Russia Remains Unaffected By Prospect of September 11th-Style Attacks Committed By Their America-Hating Political Partners Image
MORE/ Retweet this widely so that all Americans can understand that the Kremlin and Trump have exactly the same political agenda—to stoke not just figurative but actual chaos and mayhem across the United States. MAGA is an anti-American political movement. wsj.com/world/russia-p…
PS/ Here's what you *won't* see in light of the news of coming 9/11-style terror attacks committed by Putin, the Kremlin, and Russia: you won't see Trump distance himself from Putin, the Kremlin or Russia. You won't see MAGAs distance themselves from Putin, the Kremlin or Russia.
Read 5 tweets

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