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Josh Wolfe Profile picture
@wolfejosh
Aug 14, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
The first 3 (short bite-sized) episodes are out for "FUTURA"—

—Lux's show shining spotlight on rebel inventors + entrepreneurs closing the gap between sci-FI <> sci-FACT

Ep 1: why brain machine interfaces won't be invasive

Full episode:
Ep:2 the hidden tech, hardware & software—behind cutting edge drone racing from @DroneRaceLeague

Full episode:
Ep 3: why the future of shared viewing may not be headsets with AR or VR —but full-color freespace complex light fields in glass like holograms out of StarWars...

Full episode:
Ep 4: why the future of every portal to spaces you enter—will have smarter access.

And how cutting-edge tech hardware + software blends trust, security + convenience—to even let strangers in

Full episode:

• • •

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More from @wolfejosh

Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Aug 21
1/ Apple researchers just dropped NEW foundation model on BEHAVIORAL data from wearables.

Forget raw sensors—think steps, heart variability, gait

Trained on 2.5B hours via 162K people

Predicts age, sex, pregnancy, sleep like a crystal ball. Image
2/ Their new foundation model (WBM) trained not on noisy low-level sensor data––but on derived behavioral metrics via wearables

Outperforms raw sensor models in predicting sleep, injury, & infection.

When combined CRUSH it—predicting pregnancy w/ >90% accuracy. Image
3/ Contrarian take––Transformers may be overkill for everything

head-to-head on wearable data (Mamba-2) beat Transformers for health prediction. Simpler tokenization also won.

Lesosn: data’s unique physics (irregular, noisy)+ ignore the loud signals to hear the whispers––edge is in the architectureImage
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Read 4 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Aug 21
1/ New Lux quarterly LP letter––Q2 2025

theme: “Friction Frontier”

-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)

-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months… Image
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2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”

-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A

-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).

-Open source vs Closed… Image
3/great irony in frenzy for ARTIFICIAL intelligence––what’s acquired isnt hardware but HUMAN intelligence

-frontier of agentic Al not defined by model size-but what we can verify

-99% reliable agent degrades to 60.5% after 50 sequential decision tasks––each error cascading like cracks in glassImage
Read 8 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Aug 18
1/ Beyond the hype + headlines

some eye-opening AI stats to consider

Today Mag 7 = 35% of US stock mkt value

NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs:

Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla
2/At recent lunch with LP who put Lux in business I talked about shift from consensus cloud inference (GPUs + datacenters + power) to on-device inference (memory + batteries)...
3/ This valued LP talked about CAPEX:

Meta, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG TLSA spending $560B by EOY 2025

The total AI revenue from that spend? ~$35B

That's not great ~6% return
Read 5 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Jun 7
Apple just GaryMarcus'd LLM reasoning ability Image
2/ Apple tested today's "reasoning" AIs like Claude + DeepSeek which look smart—but when complexity rises, they collapse.

Not fail gracefully. Collapse completely.
3/ They found LLMs don't scale reasoning like humans do.

They think MORE up to a point…

Then they GIVE UP early, even when they have plenty of compute left.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
May 19
1/ Three big Lux things tonight

-@anduriltech founder Palmer Luckey on @60Minutes
“The Future of Warfare”

-@eGenesisBio on @CNN with Sanjay Gupta
“Animal Pharm”

-new Lux Q1 2025 Quarterly LetterImage
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2/
 This is one of my favorite letters we’ve ever written

The theme is PARTNERSHIPS

-between man and machine
-between present and future selves, decision, companies
-between us and our founders of Lux companies
-between Lux partners ourselvesImage
3/ word processor > spellcheck >grammar‑check > LLM “style‑check” if paragraph was birthed by human mind or statistical echo. We detect plagiarism but also something subtler—call it prompterism, prose coaxed from silicon’s
latent space rather than summoned from lived experience.Image
Read 9 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
May 9
BIG NEWS from Lux🚨…

American scientists––and those we attract to America🇺🇸––are what have helped make America not just great but absolutely + relatively EXCEPTIONAL.

We CANNOT cede scientific supremacy to China.
We don’t need talk, we need action…
2/ The 🇨🇳CCP “2035 Science & Technology Vision” states unapologetically “original innovation is the sharpest blade.” coupling that declaration w/ vast subsidies, talent visas + procurement guarantees which have helped them take lead in 37 of 44 critical and emerging technologies!
3/ Upending American science seemed an impossible order.

Regularly copied and always envied, but never rivaled.

Constructed by visionaries like Vannevar Bush in the ashes of WWII + propelled by brilliant legislation like Bayh-Dole Act––we did the impossible: an open scientific enterprise that could simultaneously probe into the furthest frontiers while translating the most original insights uncovered into the most prosperous companies in the world.
Read 16 tweets

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